09月23日每日英语--亚洲正在觉醒 Asia is awakening
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09 月23 日
亚洲正在觉醒 Asia is awakening
亚洲的崛起是我们这个时代的经济大事。过去两个世纪中，先是欧洲占据了全球主导地位，后来是欧洲子嗣的北美巨人。如果亚洲过去几十年的增长得以持续，那么欧美主导世界的世纪将会终结。日本曾一度预示着亚洲的未来。事实证明，日本太小，并且内向，难以改变世界。继日本之后，尤其是中国为首的亚洲国家证明，它们既不小，也不内向。
Asia's rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and, subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end. Japan was but the harbinger of an Asian future. The country has proved too small and inward-looking to transform the world. What follows it - China, above all - will prove neither.
亚洲得名于欧洲人的观念：古希腊人将欧亚大陆不属于欧洲的那部分取名为亚洲。在历史上，这片辽阔的土地分成四个区：西部、北部、南部和东部。近1400年来，西部都是伊斯兰教的领地；北部是游牧民的世界；南部是印度文明的领域；而在东部，中国在政治和文化上占主导地位。还必须加上亚洲南部和东部沿海的许多岛屿，最重要的一些岛屿现在分属于日本、印度尼西亚和菲律宾。
Asia is a European idea: it was invented by the ancient Greeks as a name for the non-European part of Eurasia. Historically, this vast mass of territory was divided into four zones: the west, for almost 1,400 years the domain of Islam; the north, the world of the nomads; the south, the region of Hindu civilisation; and the east, dominated culturally and politically by China. To these must be added the islands off its southern and eastern coasts, the most important of which are now contained within Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines.
今天，西亚的经济影响仅来自那里的石油。俄罗斯和苏联帝国解体后独立的国家构成了北亚。亚洲东部是人口密集的地区，南部人口略少。这两个地区已开始变革，这种变革将改变世界。截至2002年，以市场价格计算，这些国家的国内生产总值(GDP)占全球的24%；以实际购买力平价(PPP)计算，国内生产总值占全球的三分之一。但亚洲国家也拥有全球56%的人口。这些国家仍具有巨大的潜力。
Today, the economic impact of west Asia comes only from its oil. Russia and the shards of its collapsed empire make up north Asia. It is in Asia's populous east and, to a lesser degree, its south that a world-transforming change has begun. By 2002, these countries generated 24 per cent of global gross domestic product at market prices, and a third measured at purchasing power parity (PPP) (see below). But they also contained 56 per cent of humanity. Their potential remains huge.
据经济史学家安古斯•麦迪森(Angus Maddison)称，1820年，亚洲(东亚、南亚和西亚)拥有全世界68%的人口，按实际购买力平价计算，国内生产总值占全球总额的59%。但在18和19世纪，在经济停滞，外国干涉及被彻底征服面前，亚洲只能屈从。到1950年，虽然亚洲人口依然占全球人口的55%，但占全球国内生产总值的份额已下降到仅18%。
In 1820, according to Angus Maddison, the economic historian, Asia (east, south and west) contained 68 per cent of world population and generated 59 per cent of GDP, at PPP. But it succumbed in the 18th and 19th centuries to economic stagnation, foreign intervention and outright conquest. By 1950, Asia's combined share of world GDP had fallen to just 18 per cent, even though its share of population was still 55 per cent (see chart).
亚洲正在觉醒。19世纪下半叶，日本第一个觉醒。自1945年战败后，日本获得了举世瞩目的成就，迅速升入发达国家行列。香港、台湾、韩国和新加坡紧随其后，于20世纪50年代、60年代和70年代崛起。自1966年始，苏哈托(Suharto)统治下的印度尼西亚也走上了相似的道路，并获得了部分成功。中国和印度两大巨人一度因外国干预而遭受重创，但两国利用了重新获得的独立地位，来追求社会主义的自给自足。
Asia is waking up. Japan roused first, in the second half of the 19th century. After its defeat in 1945, it achieved a stunning ascent to developed status. Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore followed in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. Suharto's Indonesia pursued a similar course from 1966, with some success. But the two giants, China and India, traumatised by foreign intervention, used their regained independence to pursue socialist autarky.
最后，在20世纪80年代和90年代，包括印度和中国两大巨人在内，大多数东亚和南亚国家终于选择了市场导向的经济，在干涉主义政府的监护下，它们选择了以世界市场为导向的经济模式。在1973年第一次石油危机和1998年亚洲金融危机期间，东亚和南亚的发展中国家纷纷崛起，人均国内生产总值的年复合增长率达到了4.2%，这意味着年人均收入增长了2.8倍。
Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s, most of the countries of east and south Asia, including the two giants, chose market-led economies, oriented towards world markets, under the tutelage of interventionist governments. Between the first oil shock in 1973 and the Asian financial crisis in 1998 the GDP per head of the resurgent developing countries of east and south Asia rose at a compound rate of 4.2 per cent a year, which meant a 2.8-fold increase in incomes per head.
1973年是个分水岭。1973年后，东亚和南亚的经济增长率远远高于1973年前，这也是全球唯一能维持这种增长速度的地区。用麦迪森的话说，这些国家“(不同程度地)复制”了日本在20世纪50和60年代这个“黄金时代”取得的大飞跃。据世界银行的统计，经济增长在上世纪70年代出现加速，在亚洲发展中国家，实际人均国内生产总值的年增长率升至3%。20世纪80年代，这一数字跃升到4.9%，20世纪90年代则达到了5.4%。
This was the only region of the world whose growth after 1973 was far faster than before that watershed. Its countries are, in Mr Maddison's words, "replicating (in various degrees of intensity) the big leap forward achieved by Japan in the golden age" of the 1950s and 1960s. Growth is accelerating: in the 1970s, according to the World Bank, real GDP per head of Asian developing countries rose at 3 per cent a year. In the 1980s, this jumped to 4.9 per cent. In the 1990s, it reached 5.4 per cent.
总体数据往往令人误解。世界上几乎没有哪个地区能比东亚和南亚更能说明这一点。东亚和南亚有着不同的文化和信仰，有全世界最大的民主国家印度，有最大的、名义上的共产主义国家中国(但中国正在日益资本主义化)；还有最正统的斯大林主义国家朝鲜。在亚洲各国中，中国有12.8亿人口，印度有10.5亿人口。亚洲还有四个人口超过1亿的国家：印度尼西亚（2.12亿）、巴基斯坦（1.45亿）、孟加拉（1.36亿）和日本（1.27亿）。亚洲还有众多中等规模的国家，包括越南（8100万）、菲律宾（8000万）、泰国（6200万）、缅甸（4900万）和韩国（4800万）。但亚洲也包括众多小国，比如有着2400万人口的马来西亚和尼泊尔，以及90万人口的不丹等。
Aggregates are misleading. Of almost no area of the world is this more true than east and south Asia. The region is diverse in its culture and in beliefs. It contains the world's largest democracy, India; its largest notionally communist, but increasingly capitalist, state, China; and its most Stalinist country, North Korea. It contains China with 1.28bn people and India with 1.05bn. It possesses four more countries with populations over 100m - Indonesia (212m); Pakistan (145m); Bangladesh (136m); and Japan (127m) - as well as a number of medium-sized countries in Vietnam (81m), the Philippines (80m), Thailand (62m), Burma (49m) and South Korea (48m). But it also possesses a number of small countries, from Malaysia and Nepal, with 24m people, to Bhutan with 0.9m.
最重要的是，在繁荣程度、经济规模和成功程度上，该地区的情况千差万别。亚洲有五大高收入经济体，分别是香港、日本、新加坡、韩国和台湾(若“地区”的定义扩大，则还应加入澳大利亚和新西兰)。但亚洲也有众多低收入国家，它们的实际人均收入只有上述高收入国家的10%或不到(以购买力平价计算)。印度、越南、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、蒙古、老挝、柬埔寨和尼泊尔都在此列。以市场价格计算，作为世界第二大经济体，日本在该地区占主导地位，GDP占东亚和南亚GDP总额的56%；日本、中国、印度和韩国GDP的总和占东亚和南亚GDP总额的85%。若以购买力平价计算，情况又有很大不同。2002年，中国是全球第二大经济体，日本和印度紧随其后。这三个国家总共创造了该地区四分之三的GDP产值（按购买力平价计算）。
Above all, the region is divergent in prosperity, economic size and success. It contains five high-income economies: Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. (Australia and New Zealand would be added, if the definition were widened.) But it also includes a sizeable number of countries with real incomes per head, at PPP, that are 10 per cent or less of those of the highest-income countries. India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Laos, Cambodia and Nepal all fall into this category. At market prices, Japan, the world's second-largest economy, dominates the region, with 56 per cent of the total GDP of east and south Asia. Together, Japan, China, India and South Korea generate 85 per cent of the GDP of east and south Asia, at market prices. At PPP, the picture is quite different. In 2002, China was the world's second-largest economy, followed by Japan and India. Together, these three countries generated three-quarters of regional GDP, at PPP.
尽管该地区的许多国家表现卓越，但这并非普遍现象。在20世纪90年代，中国实际人均收入年均增长8.8%；越南为6%。印度、新加坡和韩国的年人均GDP增速达到了4%到5%。孟加拉国、马来西亚、斯里兰卡和泰国勉强达到了3%到4%。而印度尼西亚、香港、尼泊尔(还有澳大利亚和新西兰)的年人均GDP增速则下降了2%到3%。排在最后的国家则有巴基斯坦、菲律宾和日本(令人惊讶)，它们的年人均收入仅增长了1%左右。尽管亚洲爆发了金融危机，但请注意，这一地区的经济增长普遍强劲。然而，金融危机的确重创了部分国家，其中首推印度尼西亚。
Though a large number of countries within the region have performed superbly, this is not universally true. In the 1990s, real incomes per head rose at 8.8 per cent a year in China and 6 per cent in Vietnam. India, Singapore and South Korea achieved growth of GDP per head of between 4 and 5 per cent a year. Bangladesh, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Thailand managed between 3 and 4 per cent. Growth of GDP per head in Indonesia, Hong Kong, Nepal (and Australia and New Zealand) fell by between 2 and 3 per cent. The laggards were Pakistan, the Philippines and - amazingly - Japan, which achieved only about 1 per cent a year growth in income per head. Note the generally strong growth, despite the financial crisis. But it did hit a few countries badly, above all, Indonesia.
这种多样性使得广义的概括很危险。但如果我们把这一地区当作一个整体看待，我们可以勾勒出该地区经济景象的四大特征。
The diversity makes generalisation dangerous. But if we look at the region as a whole, we can make out four big features of the economic landscape.
第一，该地区在世界贸易中的作用正以惊人的速度增长。2001年，亚太地区占全球商品出口的比例，从1963年的10%和1983年的18%，提高到了24%。其中，日本的份额一直在下降，从1993年的10%，下降到了2001年的7%以下。但中国的份额在增加，从1983年的1%增加到2001年的4%以上。印度远远落在后面。在本世纪头10年，中国看来肯定要超过日本。到2001年，中国的商品出口额已经与英国旗鼓相当。
First, the region's role in world trade is increasing at an astonishing rate (see chart). The Asia-Pacific region generated 24 per cent of world merchandise exports in 2001, up from 10 per cent in 1963 and 18 per cent in 1983. Japan's share has been declining, from 10 per cent in 1993 to below 7 per cent in 2001. But China's is on the way up, from 1 per cent in 1983 to over 4 per cent in 2001. India lags far behind. China seems certain to surpass Japan this decade. By 2001, its merchandise exports already matched the UK's.
东亚发展中国家和新兴工业化国家之间的内部贸易，从1985年占全球贸易的2.2%，增至2001年的6.5%。同期，这些国家与世界其它国家间的贸易则从占全球比例的7.5%增至12.1%。因此，到2001年时，这些国家有三分之一以上的贸易在该地区内部进行的。
Internal trade among east Asian developing and newly industrialised countries grew from 2.2 per cent of world trade in 1985 to 6.5 per cent in 2001. Over the same period, the trade of these countries with the rest of the world rose from 7.2 per cent to 12.1 per cent of the total. Accordingly, by 2001, more than a third of the trade of these countries fell inside the region.
中国的崛起正给亚洲及亚洲以外的国家带来压力，尤其给那些依赖出口劳动密集型制造业产品的国家带来压力。在2000年到2003年上半年间，中国对美国的贸易盈余增长了280亿美元（按年率计算）。而同期日本、台湾、韩国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国等对美贸易盈余减少了260亿美元。
China's rise is imposing pressure on other countries in the region, and beyond, particularly those that rely on exports of labour-intensive manufactures. Between 2000 and the first half of 2003 (at an annualised rate), China's trade surplus with the US rose by $28bn. Over the same period, the combined surpluses with the US of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand fell by $26bn.
第二，亚洲地区是全球最重要的资本盈余地区。据国际货币基金组织(IMF)最新一期《全球经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)的数据，东亚和南亚去年的经常账户盈余为2460亿美元，其中1130亿属于日本，另有680亿来自新兴工业化地区(香港、新加坡、韩国和台湾)，另外还有650亿来自以中国和印度为主的发展中国家。亚洲的储户正为高消费的美国人提供资金。
Second, the Asian region is the world's most important capital surplus region. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, east and south Asia ran a current account surplus of $246bn last year, $113bn of which was Japan's, another $68bn came from the newly industrialised countries (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) and $65bn from the developing countries, principally China and India. Asian savers are financing high- spending Americans.
这些盈余反映了亚洲高得惊人的储蓄率。在1997至2001年间，东亚地区发展中国家的国民储蓄毛额相当于GDP的37%。这让该地区拥有了异常高的投资率，外加占GDP3%的净资本出口额。现在，中国的储蓄毛额相当于GDP的40%。日本则以相当于GDP30%的储蓄率，位列所有高收入国家之首。与之完全相反的是，美国的储蓄率平均还不到GDP的18%。
Behind these surpluses lie astonishingly high savings rates. Between 1997 and 2001, the gross national savings rate of the developing countries in the east Asian region was 37 per cent of GDP (see chart). This gave the region a phenomenally high investment rate, plus net capital exports of 3 per cent of GDP. China's gross savings rate is now 40 per cent of GDP. Meanwhile, Japan has the highest savings rate among the high-income countries, at 30 per cent of GDP. At the opposite end, US savings averaged less than 18 per cent of GDP.
亚洲政府还一直以惊人的速度积累外汇储备。这一方面是因为它们希望保持出口竞争力，另一方面，亚洲金融危机教育了他们，正如波洛尼厄斯一句话的后半句：“做贷方，不做借方。”在1997年1月至今年6月间，全球外汇储备增加了1.079万亿美元，其中83%来自亚洲国家。在全球外汇储备增长总额中，30%的增长来自日本，22%来自中国。截至2003年6月，日本的外汇储备达到了5380亿美元，中国达到了3470亿美元。
Asian governments have also been prepared to accumulate foreign currency reserves at an amazing rate. This is partly because they wish to preserve export competitiveness. It is also because the Asian financial crisis taught them half of the message of Polonius: a lender, but not a borrower, be. Between January 1997 and June of this year, the Asians contributed 83 per cent of the increase in global foreign currency reserves, which rose by a total of $1,079bn. 30 per cent of the increase in global reserves was in Japan and another 22 per cent in China. By June 2003, Japan's foreign currency reserves had reached $538bn and China's another $347bn.
第三，亚洲地区还是吸收外国直接投资的“大磁铁”。2002年，流向发展中国家的外国直接投资总额从上一年度的2090亿美元回落到1620亿美元，就在这1620亿美元中，有890亿美元流向了东亚和南亚地区。中国是主要的外资流向国，总共吸收了530亿美元外国直接投资，而印度只得到了34亿美元。截至2002年，流入本地区的外国直接投资累计为1.305万亿美元，而所有发展中国家的总额为2.340万亿美元。到这一年时，中国拥有的外国直接投资累计为4480亿美元。
Third, the region is also a magnet for inflows of foreign direct investment. In 2002, total inflows of FDI into developing countries fell to $162bn from $209bn the previous year. Of this total, $89bn went to south and east Asia. China was the dominant destination, receiving $53bn alone, against only $3.4bn by India. The stock of inward FDI in the region was $1,305bn by 2002, out of a total of $2,340bn for all developing countries. By that year, $448bn of this total was in China.
第四，经济增长对大众贫穷产生了巨大的冲击。据世界银行的数据，根据购买力平价计算，在东亚，每天生活费在一美元以下的人口已从1999年的4.70亿降至2000年的2.61亿。单在中国，这一数据就已从3.61亿降至2.04亿。在南亚，这一数据也已从4.66亿降至4.32亿，只是降幅没有那么明显。
Fourth, growth has had a sizeable impact on mass poverty. According to the World Bank, the number of people living on less than $1 a day, at PPP, in east Asia fell from 470m in 1990 to 261m in 2000. In China alone, the number fell from 361m to 204m. In south Asia, too, this number fell, though much less sharply, from 466m to 432m.
那么这个地区将向何处去呢？它对世界经济、进而对世界所造成的冲击将有多大呢？在这一问题的答案中，最重要的部分的是，即使在2002年，根据购买力平价计算，中国的人均GDP也仅有4000美元，印度仅为2800美元。由于高收入国家的人均GDP平均已达2.7万美元，这一地区需要迎头赶上的差距仍然巨大。如果这些地区性大国能保持稳定，同时政策能得到稳步改善，那么它们的经济就能获得几十年的高速增长。在中国的带领下，亚洲崛起才刚刚开始。
Where, then, does the region go now and what will its impact be on the world economy and, indeed, the world? The most important part of the answer is that even in 2002, China's GDP per head, at PPP, was just $4,000, while India's was $2,800. Since the average GDP per head of the high-income countries was $27,000, the catch-up potential remains enormous. If the big regional players sustain stability and achieve steady policy improvements, they can grow rapidly for decades. Asia's rise, led by China, is just beginning.
那么，这样的崛起意味着什么呢？不妨考虑下述三种可能性：
What, then, might such a rise imply? Consider three possibilities.
第一种可能是，随着中国走向工业化，中国将果断地转变贸易方式，放弃制造业，尤其是劳动密集型制造业，转而选择加工初级产品(石油、其它原材料，甚至食品)。这将对世界其它地区产生巨大影响。
The first is that, as it industrialises, China will shift the terms of trade decisively against manufactures, particularly labour-intensive manufactures, in favour of primary commodities (oil, other raw materials and even foodstuffs). This would have a big impact on the rest of the world.
第二种可能是，亚洲将成为世界最有深度的金融市场的大本营。在1997年金融危机发生前，大多数亚洲国家把金融业视为工业融资的渠道。残酷的事实告诉它们，开放这样一个金融业，并完全将它自由化将是致命的。金融产业需要现代化，这是一个显而易见的结论。这一进程已经开始，但仍有许多事情要做。一旦金融现代化得以实现，新的金融产业将能充分利用全球存款额最高、最有活力的经济体。这些因素将成为强大的优势。
The second is that Asia becomes home to the world's deepest financial markets. Until the 1997 crisis, most Asian countries regarded the financial sector as a conduit for financing industry. They learned, brutally, that the opening and liberalisation of such a financial sector is lethal. The obvious conclusion is that financial sectors need modernisation. That has started, but much more needs to be done. When it is, the new financial sectors will have access to the world's highest savings and most dynamic economies. These will be formidable advantages.
第三个可能性是，印度也将进行必要的变革，从而使经济增长率达到8%。如果印度做到了这一点，那么世界经济活动的重心将向亚洲转移，而且转移的速度可能更加惊人。即使印度做不到这一点，在不到几十年的时间内，亚洲也似乎肯定要成为最重要的地区。
The third is that India also makes the changes needed to generate growth of up to 8 per cent. Should it do so, the speed with which the centre of economic gravity would shift towards Asia could be even more astonishing. Even if it does not, Asia seems certain to become much the most important region within a few decades.
日本已产生了巨大的影响。但日本是一个拥有1.27亿人口的国家，还没有从二战战败的创伤中恢复过来。中国的人口是日本的10倍，也没有日本那样的受辱感。欧洲代表过去，美国代表现在，而中国主导的亚洲则将是全球经济的未来。这一未来似乎注定会到来。剩下的重要问题是: 这一切发生的速度如何及平稳性如何。
Japan has already made a big difference. But Japan is a country of 127m, still traumatised by its defeat in the second world war. China has 10 times Japan's population and none of its bashfulness. Europe was the past, the US is the present and a China- dominated Asia the future of the global economy. That future seems bound to come. The big questions are how soon and how smoothly it does so. |
楼主: ＾_＾
