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发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
12 月09 日每日英语--在放缓还是在加速? SLOWING DOWN OR SPEEDING UP?

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12 月09 日
在放缓还是在加速? SLOWING DOWN OR SPEEDING UP?


中国如谜,难以揣度。中国经济发展究竟是在放缓,还是在加速,投资者、经济学家,甚至北京的决策人都意见不一。
It is a measure of the conundrum that is China that investors, economists and even policy-makers in Beijing are divided about whether the economy is slowing down or speeding up.

2003年中国的国民生产总值增长率可望达到8.5%,在此形势下,政府却保守地把明年的目标定为7%。包括摩根士丹利在内的熊市论者预测实际增长率会略高于这一数字。以高盛公司为首的牛市论者则预测中国经济将加速增长,国民生产总值的增长率将达到9.5%。如果去看红红火火的建筑业,或是新近出现的电荒,我们似乎可以认为这些“官方”的国民生产总值数字将中国实际发展速度低估了三到四个百分点。
After expected gross domestic product growth of 8.5 per cent in 2003, the government has set a conservative target of just 7 per cent for next year. Bearish forecasters such as Morgan Stanley forecast a touch more. The bulls, led by Goldman Sachs, expect an acceleration to 9.5 per cent. And looking at construction activity or electricity demand suggests that these \"official\" measures of GDP are understating China\'s actual expansion by three to four percentage points.

在某个层面上看,这场争论似乎只有内行人才闹得明白。不管最后哪个数字正确,中国肯定还是世界上发展最快的经济体。但事实上,这争论却又有重大意义,而且这意义还不限于中国。
On one level, this seems a rather esoteric debate. Whichever number proves correct, China will surely remain the world\'s fastest-growing major economy. In truth, it matters hugely - and not just to China.

目前,中国的进口正以年均40%的速度飞速增长。这个号称世界工厂的国家在石油、金属、矿物和海运等方面已经掌握了控价权。在亚洲,中国对原材料和零部件的迫切需求能够帮助该地区(不仅是日本和韩国) 实现经济的振兴。
With imports growing at 40 per cent a year, the world\'s workshop has become the price-setter for oil, metals, minerals and shipping rates. In Asia, its thirst for raw materials and components has helped restart growth, not least in Japan and South Korea.

在此同时,中国的出口让美国消费者能够持续消费;中国巨大的外汇储备帮美国减少了现有的财政帐户赤字。中国的增长上升或下降一两个百分点,都会对全球商品、货币、股票的价格产生巨大影响,使之出现相应的升降。
Meanwhile, Chinese exports are keeping US consumers spending and its foreign exchange reserves are plugging the US current account deficit. A deviation in Chinese growth of a couple of per cent could have a big impact on global commodity, currency and stock prices - either up or down.

那么,究竟是升是降?2003年大部分时期,北京主要的担心是经济发展过热,一些城市的房地产市场以及汽车、钢铁和铝制品行业都出现了泡沫。为此,中央银行获准限制信贷,让增长缓慢下来。
So which is it? For much of 2003, Beijing\'s prime concern has been that growth was too frenetic, as shown by incipient bubbles in certain urban property markets, as well as the motor vehicle, steel and aluminium industries. Accordingly, the central bank was given permission in September to rein in credit growth in order to slow things down.

但是,这一强硬立场即便曾经存在过,看上去现在也已荡然无存。中国央行副行长吴晓灵在最近接受《金融时报》采访时,对经济过热的说法予以了否认。这说明银行对非金融领域的贷款还将快速增长。在2003年的前九个月,此类贷款就增加了50%以上。
But this hawkish consensus, if it ever really existed, appears to have broken down. In a recent interview with the FT, Wu Xiaoling, central bank vice-governor denied the economy was overheating. This suggests that bank lending to the non-financial sector, which rose by more than 50 per cent in the first nine months of 2003, will continue to grow rapidly.

但是,政策指导下的现代化过程可能将受到产能的局限。随着冬季的降临,电力短缺导致大量工厂停工,这会延缓外商投资,进而让增长略有放缓。有些城市甚至连红绿灯也关了。
This attempt at policy-directed moderation may, however, be giving way to one caused by capacity constraints. As winter approaches, power shortages are causing widespread factory shutdowns that already appear to be delaying foreign investment and could dampen growth at the margin. Some cities have even switched off their traffic lights.

从长远来讲,这一问题也不一定是坏事。尽管短期内它会对全球需求产生影响,现在软放缓总比以后硬着陆好。投资人应该仔细留意中国经济的红绿灯。
In the end, this might be no bad thing: despite the short-term adverse impact on global demand, a soft slowdown now is preferable to a hard landing later. Investors should watch those traffic lights.

如果经济放缓了,或许印度最终可以取而代之?印度财政部长贾斯旺特•辛格(Jaswant Singh) 上周就对《金融时报》表示,印度正“站在爆炸性增长的边缘。”
If China is slowing, perhaps India is at last ready to take its place? Indian finance minister Jaswant Singh told the FT last week India \"stands on the edge of explosive economic growth\".

不过不会。不管印度的电话服务中心如何兴盛,他们的软件人才英语口音如何纯正,还是不会取代中国。辛格先生希望占国民生产总值25%的农业出现第二次“绿色革命” ,还寄希望于印度发达的生产中心。
And no, it is not down to all those call centres manned by software specialists - however impeccable their English accents are. Mr Singh is pinning his hopes on a second \"green revolution\" in agriculture, still 25 per cent of GDP, and the prowess of India\'s manufacturing centre.

他的希望也有些道理。如果有个好的雨季,印度今年的经济增长可能会从4.4%上升到7%以上。印度的资金效率也可能高于中国。粗略算来,过去十年来中国的资金投资可能占国民生产总值的40%,由此产生8%的增长率。换言之,一美元投资产生20美分的增长。印度的资金投资占国民生产总值25%,产生6%的增长率,也就是说,印度一美元投资能产生24美分的增长。
There is something to this. A good monsoon should boost economic growth this year to above 7 per cent (from 4.4 per cent). And India\'s capital efficiency may actually be greater than China\'s. Very roughly, capital investment in China has run at about 40 per cent of GDP over the past decade, generating 8 per cent growth - or 20 cents of growth per dollar of investment. India, with growth of 6 per cent on investment of 25 per cent, has managed 24 cents on the dollar.

高盛公司在十月份发布了一份名为《巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国四国畅想》(Dreaming with BRICs) 的发展中国家经济预测报告。报告预测,从长期来看,如果印度未来三十年内保持5%的增长率,最终会超过中国。
Goldman Sachs, in its October report on big emerging economies (Dreaming with BRICs) also estimated that over the very long term, Indian growth of 5 per cent per annum over the next 30 years, would outpace China.

当然,能否实现这一目标取决于宏观经济状况。过时的劳动法、总额接近11%的财政赤字、庞大的官僚机构,这都是有待克服的障碍。辛格先生本人也承认,“我们的公务员不太忙公务。”
That, of course, depends on sound macroeconomics. Antiquated labour laws, a consolidated fiscal deficit of almost 11 per cent and India\'s massive bureaucracy are all hurdles that need to be overcome. As Mr Singh himself admitted: \"My civil service is not very civil.\"

2003年亚洲证券市场形势大好。按本国货币计算,增长约为35%,如果兑换成美元则更高。美国的经济复苏有所帮助,但是,证券市场的繁荣主要还是中国推动的结果,中国大陆在香港上市的股票数翻了一番。
Asian equities have had a splendid 2003, with local currency gains of about 35 per cent - and more in dollar terms. The US revival has helped but much of it, once again, is due to the pull from China: mainland stocks listed in Hong Kong have doubled.

所以,中国经济发展是否减速是投资者需要关注的一件事。另外要关注的是政治风险。2004年有8个国家要进行大选。
So a decline in Chinese growth is one thing for investors to watch. Another is political risk, with eight countries going to the polls in 2004.

但是乐观的是,亚洲的收益将增长25%,而期货价格指数(日本除外) 却只有13。清算方面也继续保持健康。自从2002年1月以来,该地区吸收了800亿美元的外资注入。如果巨大的家庭储蓄投入到股市,股市自然会大振,更是会让中国经济产生无可限量的增长。
On the plus side, however, Asian earnings should grow by 25 per cent and the forward price earnings ratio (ex-Japan) is only 13. Liquidity also remains healthy. Foreign funds have put $80bn into the region since January 2002. And if domestic households, with their vast savings, ever discover shares, that could help underpin stocks - whatever happens to China\'s growth.

作者邓伯乐(Dan Bogler) 是《金融时报》亚洲新闻编辑。作者信箱:daniel.bogler@ft.com
Dan Bogler is the FT\'s Asia news editor daniel.bogler@ft.com
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
11 月03 日每日英语--管得太多反成负担 A scandalous burden

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11 月03 日
管得太多反成负担 A scandalous burden


人们一般认为,迫于新自由主义理论家的压力,发展中国家的政府已经选择了一种亲市场的监管体制。但我要说,这纯粹是胡说八道。贫穷国家对于企业经营的不合理管束仍然远远多于富裕国家。
Under the pressure of neo-liberal ideologists, governments of developing countries have chosen market-friendly regulatory regimes. That is the conventional wisdom. But it is nonsense. Inapposite regulation of business remains far more onerous in poor countries than in rich ones.

如果你想在澳大利亚、丹麦、加拿大、新西兰、新加坡、瑞典、英国或美国开一家公司,费用将是这些国家人均年收入的1%,有时甚至还不到。在澳大利亚,你的公司可以在两天内开张,而在巴西,你需要152天;在印尼需要168天。在穷困的海地,你需要203天。如果在埃塞俄比亚和尼日尔要开办一家公司,所需费用将在该国人均年收入的四倍以上,而这些开支还不包括你做生意本身所必需的投资。
If you start a business in Australia, Denmark, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Sweden, the UK or the US, it will cost you 1 per cent of the country's average annual income, or less. In Australia, your business can be up and running in just two days. In Brazil it will take you 152 days, in Indonesia 168 and in poverty-stricken Haiti, 203. In Ethiopia and Niger, starting a business will cost you more than four times average annual income per head. This cost is quite apart from the investment you must make in the business itself.

你想管理好你的员工吗?如果想,那就不要去贫穷的塞拉利昂,该国有最慷慨的年度假期规定:39天。刚果共和国(布拉扎维)的假期规定是35天,埃塞俄比亚为33天,乍得、科特迪瓦和尼日尔是32天。在奥地利、丹麦、香港、马来西亚、新西兰、新加坡、英国和美国,用工管理条款(即聘用和解雇员工的灵活程度,以及谈判雇佣条件的自由度等)最不严格。用工管理条款最严格的国家是巴西、墨西哥、巴拿马、巴拉圭、秘鲁、委内瑞拉、安哥拉、白俄罗斯、莫桑比克和葡萄牙。
Do you want to manage your workforce? Do not go to impoverished Sierra Leone, with the most generous annual leave requirement, at 39 days. The Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) requires 35 days, Ethiopia 33 and Chad, Ivory Coast and Niger 32. Regulation of employment - flexibility of hiring and firing and freedom to negotiate conditions of employment - is least severe in Austria, Denmark, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK and the US. It is most severe in Brazil, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela, Angola, Belarus, Mozambique and Portugal.

你希望讨回赖帐客户的欠款吗?在危地马拉,你需要通过19个步骤,花费1460天时间。强制执行同样的合约,在突尼斯仅需7天,在荷兰需要39天,在新西兰和新加坡需要50天。在奥地利、荷兰、英国、美国、台湾、巴西和约旦,你讨回欠款的成本可以忽略不计。在刚果民主共和国、科特迪瓦、印度和菲律宾,强制执行的成本接近这些国家的人均收入。在印度尼西亚,这一成本则是人均收入的两倍以上。
Do you wish to secure payment from a recalcitrant customer? In Guatemala, you will need to go through 19 procedures, which will take 1,460 days. Enforcing the same contract will take just seven days in Tunisia, 39 days in the Netherlands and 50 days in New Zealand and Singapore. In Austria, the Netherlands, the UK, the US Taiwan, Brazil and Jordan, the costs you incur will be negligible. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Ivory Coast, India and the Philippines, the costs of enforcement will be close to the country's average income per head. In Indonesia, they will be more than twice average income per head.

你需要信用贷款吗?在多数发展中国家,你会遭受挫折,而且有可能被拒绝,除非你很有路子。获得贷款为什么这么难呢?原因之一是缺少共享的信用信息。更大的障碍在于缺乏对债权人的法律保护。例如,假设你想收回一笔由企业设备担保的坏账,在德国、爱尔兰、突尼斯和美国,这需要一周时间。而在巴西和智利,可能需要5年。
Do you need credit? In most developing countries, you will experience frustration and probable rejection, unless you are well connected. Why is it so difficult to obtain credit? One explanation is the absence of shared credit information. A more important obstacle is the lack of legal protection for creditors. Suppose, for example, you want to collect a bad loan secured on business equipment. In Germany, Ireland, Tunisia and the US, it will take a week. In Brazil and Chile it could take five years.

唉,你要破产了。在加拿大、爱尔兰、日本、挪威和新加坡,完成破产程序不会超过一年。但在巴西、乍得和印度,需要10年以上的时间。
Alas, you go bankrupt. In Canada, Ireland, Japan, Norway and Singapore, it should not take more than a year to complete the process. In Brazil, Chad and India, it will take over a decade.

上述这些吸引人的例子,都来自世界银行(World Bank)计划推出的一系列研究中的第一项。该研究没有采取常用的专家民意测验或企业调查,而是就假设的一些例子,对133个国家的相关法律规章进行具体评估。现举一例,研究人员询问当地专家,要收回一笔价值相当于他们国家人均收入一半的逾期款项,将会涉及哪些问题。研究人员还会详细列出诉讼人的特点和所在地、寻求的补偿,以及起诉的好处。通过这种方法,该研究得出了对全球各地监管体制的可比性评估。
All these fascinating examples come from the first of a planned series of studies from the World Bank group.* Instead of the usual polls of experts or enterprise surveys, the study rests on detailed assessment of the regulations and laws of 133 countries, against hypothetical examples. To take just one, researchers asked local experts what would be involved in recovering an overdue payment worth half their country's average income per head. They also specified the location and characteristics of the litigants, the remedy sought and the merit of the claim. In this way, the study generates an internationally comparable evaluation of regulatory regimes.

该分析共得出三个结论。第一,世界各地的商业法规大相径庭。第二,富裕国家的监管措施比贫困国家的更稳定、更恰当。第三,不良监管导致不良后果。
Overall, the analysis comes to three conclusions. First, regulation of business varies hugely around the world. Second, rich countries regulate more consistently and appropriately than poor ones. Third, poor regulation brings dismal outcomes.

监管体制在强制程度及成本上的区别,并不仅仅由一个国家的财富多少来决定,尽管财富很重要。法律体系的源头也很重要。北欧国家和英国的法律体系的监管力度最轻,而社会主义国家和法国的监管力度最大,德国的监管力度居中。人们可以料想,全世界监管水平最差的国家是个贫困的说法语的国家。
The variation in the intrusiveness and cost of regulatory regimes is not determined only by a country's wealth, important though that is. The origin of the legal system also matters. Nordic and English systems impose the least regulatory burden and socialist and French the most, with the German in the middle. One can expect the worst regulation in the world in a poor Francophone country.

监管不当将会付出不小的代价:非法经营的企业更多,税基更小,腐败现象更严重,失业率更高,而生产力更低。例如,玻利维亚是全球监管最严厉的经济体之一,估计有82%的商业活动发生在非正式部门。在许多发展中国家,一个遵纪守法的企业几乎无法经营成功。
The costs imposed by inapposite regulation are many: a higher proportion of businesses operates outside the law; the tax base is smaller; corruption is greater; unemployment is higher; and productivity is lower. In Bolivia, for example, one of the most heavily regulated economies, an estimated 82 per cent of business activity takes place in the informal sector. In many developing countries, it is close to impossible for a business to operate successfully inside the law.

一些经济学家认为,较富裕国家而言,发展中国家的市场更不完善,因此需要更多监管。这是胡说。首先,许多监管被人误导了:人们通常认为必须付出极其高昂的代价,才能开办企业,调整劳动力规模,获得不利于债务人的判决,通过破产程序等,但其实这样做并不能改善市场运作。第二,一般情况下,监管机构依然比它们监督的市场更不完善。
Some economists have argued that developing countries should regulate more, because their markets are more imperfect than those of rich countries. This is nonsense. First, much of this regulation is misdirected: making it prohibitively costly to start a business, adjust the size of the workforce, obtain judgment against debtors and go through bankruptcy does not make markets work better. Second, the institutions of governance are normally still more imperfect than the markets they are supposed to oversee.

发展中国家需要将有限的资源集中在重要任务上。而最重要的是确定和保护产权,保护公民不受其他公民和国家的伤害。此外,有力的证据已说明,监管干预的程度越高,上述基本保护的力量就越弱。正如世界银行研究报告中所评论的:“好的政府把精力放在促进社会繁荣上,而不是将资源用于成本高昂(且经常是无效的)的监管。”
Developing countries need to focus their limited resources on the tasks that matter. The most important are to define and protect property rights and safeguard citizens against injury from other citizens and the state itself. There is strong evidence, moreover, that the more intense are the regulatory interventions, the weaker are these essential protections. As the Bank study remarks: "Rather than spend resources on costly (and often ineffective) regulation, good governments channel their energies into enhancing prosperity."

一般而言,监管应减少到必要、有效和易实施的水平上。只要市场存在竞争,那市场本身就将履行大部分监管职能。政府也需要运用现代技术,以提高它们的办事效率。
In general, regulation should be reduced to what is essential, efficacious and readily enforceable. Markets themselves will do much of the regulation, provided they are competitive. Governments also need to use modern technology to improve the efficiency of what they do.

长期以来,政策制定者和分析师对企业经营的核心能力关注太少,即创业能力、关闭能力、获得信用能力、索帐和管理劳动力的能力。在所有这些方面,许多发展中国家的环境是灾难性的。最无法承受繁杂和误导性监管的国家,恰恰最因此而深受其害。这既是丑闻也是悲剧。
Policymakers and analysts have been paying too little attention to the core of what makes businesses work: the ability to start up, close down, secure credit, demand payment and manage the workforce. In all these respects, the environment in many developing countries is calamitous. The countries that can least bear the burden of cumbersome and misdirected regulation suffer from it most. This is a scandal and a tragedy.

《2004年的经营之道:了解监管》(世界银行和牛津大学出版社,2004年)
* Doing Business in 2004: Understanding Regulation (World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2004)
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月29 日每日英语--更名改姓 寻求新生 A new identity for a new life

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10 月29 日
更名改姓 寻求新生 A new identity for a new life


明年初,美国破产银行将举行听证会,考虑安然(Enron)重组计划。届时,破产银行将看到有关将安然分拆为两家新公司的提案,它们都不会沿用“安然”这个名称。“安然”,这个引发贪婪、虚假和欺诈等负面联想的名称,即将尘封于历史之中。
When the US Bankruptcy Court holds hearings early next year to consider Enron's reorganisation plan, it will find proposals for the creation of two new companies, neither of which will be called "Enron." That name, with all its negative associations of greed, deceit and fraud, is to be consigned to history.

取代安然的两个公司已被冠以新名称,凸显新形象。这一新形象没有丝毫虚假经营活动的痕迹,而是以一种审慎、透明的形象示人。其中,取名为CrossCountry能源的公司 将经营安然在北美的三大天然气管道业务,另一家取名为Prisma能源国际的公司将负责安然的国际电力、天然气公用事业和管道业务。
The companies replacing Enron have been branded to project a new image, one that dispenses with any hint of sham business operations and instead suggests corporations that are prudent and transparent. One company, CrossCountry Energy, will operate Enron's three main North American natural gas pipeline businesses. The other, Prisma Energy International, will run Enron's international electric and natural gas utility and pipeline businesses.

选择“CrossCountry”这个名字是为了告诉大家,公司做好了为股东和客户“尽心敬业”的准备。“Prisma”的言外之意是公司承诺在业务往来中透明、开放,并与美国索克斯法案(Sarbanes-Oxley Act)出台后普遍推行的公司治理改革的 步伐一致。
The name "CrossCountry" was chosen to make the statement that the company is prepared to "go the distance” for its stakeholders and customers. "risma" is intended to connote a company committed to being clear and open in its business dealings, in keeping with the widespread corporate governance reforms that have followed the implementation of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

诸如此类的公司改名费用高,耗时长,但当公司想要挽救受损的名誉时,常常会采用这种策略。但是,这能行得通吗?
Name changes like these are expensive and time- consuming to undertake but are a common strategy when a company seeks to repair a damaged reputation. But do they work?

Easterly & Co总裁加里•伊斯特利(Gary Easterly)说:“ 安然是一个滋生傲慢自大的品牌。它不真正代表事实。”位于休斯顿的Easterly & Co是一家由安然重组小组聘请 的品牌咨询公司,负责为新公司命名。
"The Enron brand was a brand that bred arrogance," says Gary Easterly, president of Easterly & Co, the Houston-based branding firm hired by Enron's restructuring team to come up with names for the new companies. "It did not really brand the truth."

他说,新的公司名称受到了安然员工的欢迎。他们不用再背负为美国一家最臭名昭著的公司打工的污名,这令他们感到欣慰。他说:“(他们)可以不用再顶着奸商的帽子了。”
He says the new names have been welcomed by Enron's employees, who are relieved that they no longer have to bear the taint of working for one of America's most infamous companies. "[They] don't have to wear that old crooked E any longer," he says.

今年改名的美国大公司还包括,旗下拥有卡夫食品(Kraft Foods) 和香烟制造商菲利普•莫里斯美国公司(Philip Morris USA )的菲利普•莫里斯集团(Philip Morris Companies) 于今年1月改名为Altria集团;去年“挤走” 安然创美国历史上最大宗破产案的电信公司世界通讯 (WorldCom)现已更名为MCI。今年9月,美国在线时代华纳(AOL Time Warner)董事会投票通过从公司名称中删除 “AOL”,原先在纽约证交所的上市股票代码“AOL”也换成“TWX”。
Other large US companies that have undertaken name changes this year include Philip Morris Companies, owner of Kraft Foods and cigarette-maker Philip Morris USA, which became Altria Group in January; and telecommunications company WorldCom, which nudged out Enron as the largest bankruptcy in US history last year and is now known as MCI. In September, AOL Time Warner's board voted to drop "AOL" from its name and dump its New York Stock Exchange ticker symbol "AOL", replacing it with "TWX".

“这是十分重要的一步,”国际品牌公司(Interbrand)命名部门常务董事朱莉•科蒂诺(Julie Cottineau)说:“公司名称是一个公司有形资产的标志。”但她补充道,麻烦缠身的公司想要重塑形象,必须同时改变不好的商业习惯。“除非你能标本兼治,否则改变公司名称也不能帮助你完全解决问题。”
"It's a very important step," says Julie Cottineau, managing director of naming at Interbrand. "The name of a company is the tangible representation of that company." But she adds that troubled companies that want to create a new image must also change poor business practices. "No name change is going to help you overcome a problem entirely unless you fix the root of the problem."

最近,菲利普•莫里斯更名为Altria,社会反响则喜忧参半。许多人认为,菲利普•莫里斯变更公司名称是为了远离烟草业的传统。Altria则表示,他们改名是为了向投资者传达一种信息:Altria不仅仅是一个烟草公司,还拥有诸如奥利奥(Oreo)饼干和麦克斯威尔 (Maxwell House) 咖啡等食品品牌。
Philip Morris' recent change to Altria has had a mixed reception. Many people believed the company undertook the change to distance itself from its tobacco heritage. Altria says it made the change to get the message across to investors that it was not just a tobacco company but also the owner of food brands such as Oreo biscuits and Maxwell House coffee.

Altria外部事务总监大卫•西尔维亚(David Sylvia)说,公 司员工和客户一开始都对公司改名困惑不解,因为大家以为公司打算放弃烟草业。但他声称,人们对公司新名称已经越来越习惯。民意调查显示,公司新名称鼓励投资者不仅仅把Altria看作是一个烟草公司。“我们发现,改名对公司名声整体产生了积极的影响。”
David Sylvia, director of external communications at Altria, says employees as well as customers were initially confused by the change, as perceptions surfaced that the company was turning its back on the tobacco business. But he claims that people have gradually become more comfortable with the name and that opinion research has shown the change has encouraged investors to view Altria as more than just a tobacco company. "We have seen a positive impact on the overall reputation of the corporation," he says.

如果公司认为,他们必须通过改名来提升公司新形象,咨询顾问则建议他们尝试并重新启用旧品牌名称,正如MCI和时代华纳所做的那样。“重新启用一个旧品牌比推出一个新品牌容易,”旧金山的咨询公司Catchword战略总监伯特•阿佩尔(Burt Alper)表示。
If companies feel they have to change their names to promote a new image, consultants advise them to try and resurrect an old brand name - as MCI and TimeWarner have done. "It's easier to resurrect an old brand than to launch a new one," says Burt Alper, strategy director at Catchword, a consulting firm based in San Francisco.

MCI说,使用一个客户已经熟悉的品牌对公司来说比较合适。“MCI在市场中是一个响当当的名字,而且一直也是我们公司传统的重要一部分,”来自MCI的克莱尔•哈西特(Claire Hassett) 表示。1998年,MCI通信与世通合并, 合并后的公司最初命名为MCI世通;2000年,公司去掉了名称中的MCI。
MCI says it made sense for the company to use a brand that its customers were already familiar with. "MCI is a very well recognised name in the marketplace and it's been a very important part of our heritage," says Claire Hassett at MCI. MCI Communications merged with WorldCom in 1998 and the combined company was originally named MCI WorldCom before dropping MCI from its name in 2000.

然而,有些时候,如果一个品牌的名誉可以恢复,咨询顾问认为,沿用旧品牌比更改名称要好。FutureBrand执行副总裁丹尼斯•赖尼(Denis Riney)说:“ 如果你不是非 改名不可,就不要改。”
Sometimes, however, if a brand can be rehabilitated, consultants say that it is better to stick with the brand than to change it. Denis Riney, executive vice- president at FutureBrand, says: "If you don't have to change your name, don't do it."

一些公司在改名上花费了大量的人力和财力,却没想到新名称令客户们一头雾水,结果他们不得不再把名字改回来。近期,最可笑的一个例子就是,去年,普华永道咨询 (PwC Consulting)为表明从普华永道会计事务所 (PricewaterhouseCoopers)中剥离出来,曾尝试改名为 Monday。由于IBM于2002年7月收购了普华永道咨询,新建了一个IBM商业咨询服务部,结果,这个倍受讥笑的新名称从来没被正式采用过。“Monday可能是我所见过的最为昙花一现的名字,”赖尼先生说:“太过时了。”
Some companies go to a lot of effort and expense to change their name, only to find that it bemuses customers, forcing them to change it back. One of the most ridiculed name changes in recent history was PwC Consulting's attempt to rebrand itself "Monday" last year to mark its separation from accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. The new name, which was widely laughed about, was never formally adopted because IBM bought PwC Consulting in July 2002 and created a new unit called IBM Business Consulting Services. "Monday was probably the shortest-lived name change I've ever seen," Mr Riney says. "It was too 1997."

90年代,“杜撰的”公司名称曾风靡一时,例如,朗讯 (Lucent)和安捷伦(Agilent)。与此相反,公司现在追求的是更加真实的名称-名称中蕴含实实在在的意义,或能体现保守的价值观。上月,Conseco资本管理公司在其母公司Conseco保险公司摆脱破产后改名为“40/86咨询顾问”(40/86 Advisor)。 这个新名称来源于公司成立时在印地安 那州的地理位置,即北纬40度,西经86度。公司宣称,这个地理位置体现了公司“务实,自律,精明,富有韧性”的性格特征。
In contrast to the 1990s, when so-called "coined" names such as Lucent and Agilent were popular, companies are now looking for names that are less artificial - names that contain real words, or that symbolise conservative values. Last month, Conseco Capital Management rebranded itself as 40/86 Advisors after its parent company, insurer Conseco, emerged from bankruptcy. The new name is derived from the company's geographic roots in Indiana - at 40 degrees north latitude, 86 degrees west longitude - a location that it claims reflects character traits that are "down-to- earth, disciplined, shrewd and resilient".

90年代后期,安然从一个管道运营商蜕变为一家贸易和金融公司。当时,对许多人而言,安然是一个好玩有趣、令人兴奋的工作场所。“ 地处美国休斯顿市中心的50层办公大 楼熠熠生辉。从清晨到深夜,人人忙忙碌碌,处处生机盎然。”洛伦&#8226;福克斯(Loren Fox)在 <<安然浮沉录>> (Enron: The Rise and Fall)中写道,“这不仅仅是一个办公 室,更是一个时尚的地方。”
Enron was, for many, a fun and exciting place to work in the late 1990s as the company transformed itself from a pipeline operator into a trading and financial company. "The gleaming, 50- storey office tower in downtown Houston buzzed with activity from early in the morning until late at night," says Loren Fox in his book Enron: The Rise and Fall. "It was more than just an office. It was the place to be."

但是,据伊斯特利先生称,CrossCountry能源和Prisma能源将营造一种全然不同的文化氛围。“新的企业文化将是埋头苦干……没有钟声和口哨声。”
But CrossCountry Energy and Prisma Energy will promote a completely different kind of culture, according to Mr Easterly. "This new culture will be about hard work . . . and no bells and whistles."
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10月27日每日英语--Google IPO:“市”不可挡 Unstoppable Google

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Google IPO:“市”不可挡 Unstoppable Google


Google能否破除华尔街的证券承销同业联盟?作为互联网新贵,Google似乎不可能完全摧毁美国金融界最强大的联盟。但自上世纪90年代股市牛市终结后,投资银行业丑闻迭出,在这样的情况下,Google破除上述联盟的希望还是存在的。
Could Google break Wall Street's equity underwriting cartel? An internet upstart might seem an unlikely candidate to destroy the most powerful alliance in American finance. But after the scandals that have engulfed the investment banking industry since end of the 1990s bull market, it surely stands a chance.

年轻而单纯的互联网公司若试图上市,多数都要通过华尔街看门人这一关。华尔街看门人是一批大型投资银行,它们控制着公开出售股份的方式,并在此过程中为自己净赚7%的收入。
Most innocent, young internet companies trying to find their way to the stock market must pass Wall Street's gatekeepers, the group of big investment banks that control the way that shares are sold to the public - and net themselves fees of 7 per cent in the process.

但从前期谈判来看,作为全球最受欢迎的互联网搜索公司,Google相信自己有能力改变至少部分游戏规则。在整顿华尔街方面,纽约首席检察官艾略特&#8226;斯皮策(Eliot Spitzer)也许已经做了大量工作;而现在,Google的首次公开发行(IPO)将向人们表明,整顿后的华尔街究竟有多大改观。
But to judge by the early negotiations, Google, the world's favourite internet search company, believes it has the power to change at least some of the rules of the game. Eliot Spitzer, New York's attorney general, may have done much to clean up Wall Street; it will take a Google IPO to show just how much is different.

这是新千年的第一次大规模IPO,有两个因素表明,这次IPO将与以往有很大不同。
Two things in particular suggest that the first big IPO of the millennium will not be like those that came before.

首先,在新股发行中,Google可能是自1995年网景(Netscape)发行上市以来最热门的新股发行,因此Google有很强的议价能力。1995年,网景凭借其开发的网页浏览器引发了后来的网络大繁荣。尽管Google可能无法像网景那样引发如此广泛的投资狂潮,但它拥有早期网络公司基本都缺乏的一样东西:已被证实是行之有效的商业模式。通过在网页上出售广告空间、并将广告与互联网搜索结果链接,Google获得了巨大成功。人们普遍承认,Google现在已是一家盈利非常丰厚的公司。
First, as the hottest potential new stock offering since at least 1995, when Netscape, the web browser, launched the dotcom boom, Google has a lot of bargaining power. While it may not create the sort of broader investment fad touched off by Netscape, it has what most of the early dotcoms lacked: a proven business model. Thanks to its success of selling advertising linked to the results of internet searches, Google is already reckoned to be a highly profitable company.

在未来数年,搜索引擎市场可望以指数级增长。不过,随着微软(Microsoft)即将推出自己的搜索引擎,最艰巨的挑战可能还在前方。的确,硅谷一些人士认为,今后20年内都没有事件能和Google的IPO相比。虽然Ebay和雅虎(Yahoo)等其它公司的IPO也曾很受欢迎,但这些公司上市早得多,与Google股票可能获得的数十亿美元的估值相比,这些公司的股票估值也低得多。
It is in a market that is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years - though with Microsoft about to launch its own search engine, the toughest challenges could still lie ahead. Indeed, some in Silicon Valley believe that the Google IPO will be an event unmatched in two decades. Although others, including those of EBay and Yahoo have been popular, these companies came to market much earlier and at far lower valuations than the multi-billion dollar valuation Google is likely to obtain.

另外,此次IPO恰好选择在硅谷开始逐渐显露出摆脱长期衰退迹象的时候。处于早期发展阶段的其它公司未来怎样,风险投资商命运如何,都将取决于Google这次能否成功带头上市。许多人已对此表现出极大热情。一位小规模网络公司的管理人员表示:“互联网的第二波热潮已于2003年春天开始。”
The IPO also comes at a time when Silicon Valley shows signs of emerging from a prolonged slump. The fortunes of other early-stage companies, and venture capital investors, rest on Google leading the way successfully to the stock market. Many are already becoming enthusiastic. "The second wave of the internet started in spring 2003," says one executive at a smaller dotcom company.

据了解Google IPO过程的一位人士透露,对Google股票的需求将极为旺盛,以致只需“五只猴子和一部电话”就能卖出全部股票。他还表示,由于投资者争相抢购,加上投资银行近年来承销收入极度匮乏,因此Google也许真能说服银行把收取的承销费降到正常水平以下。这是否意味着,其它公司今后寻求IPO时也有可能支付更低费用呢?“有可能,但它们不是Google,”一名银行家这样反驳道。
According to one person close to Google's IPO process, demand will so high that it would only take "five monkeys and a telephone" to sell the shares. With investors climbing over each other to get to the stock - and investment banks starved of underwriting fees in recent years - the company may indeed be able to persuade the banks to take lower fees than normal, this person added. Does that mean that other companies seeking an IPO in future could expect to pay less as well? "ossibly, but they're not Google," retorts one banker.

可能使Google打破固有模式的第二个因素是人们对金融丑闻的反应。在网络科技泡沫期间,华尔街处理股票发行的方式曾引发丑闻,其影响至今依然存在:弗兰克&#8226;奎特隆(Frank Quattrone)是瑞士信贷第一波士顿(CSFB)的银行家,他被控故意妨碍司法部门对其行为进行调查,目前在等候判决。在如何将网络股出售给华尔街方面,奎特隆当时产生的影响比其他任何人都大。
The second factor that could lead Google to break the mould is the reaction to the scandals caused by the way Wall Street handled stock issues during the dotcom and technology bubble. Those scandals still resonate: Frank Quattrone, the Credit Suisse First Boston banker who, more than anyone, shaped the way the dotcoms were sold to Wall Street, is awaiting a verdict on charges that he deliberately obstructed an investigation of his practices.

对华尔街处理股票发行方式的批评主要集中于两个问题:一是确定股票价格的方法,二是某些投资者似乎在配售股票时总能得到实惠。
The criticism centers on two issues: the way the price for the shares is set, and the fact that some investors appear to get favourable allocations.

传统的定价过程是,投资银行将潜在投资者的认购定单汇总成“簿”,并据此得出一个价格。IPO时股价若跌至发行价以下,发行将被视为失败,因此投行自然倾向于将价格定低。另外,大多数投行认为,公司应该有一批很大的机构股东,因为这些机构股东才是能给市场带来流动性的投资者。制定适当的价格,吸引各类股东,形成合理的股东组合,这是华尔街声称已掌握的一门艺术。
The traditional price-setting process involves an investment bank putting together a "book" of orders from potential investors to arrive at a price. IPOs that fall below their initial price are considered failures, so there is a natural tendency to price low. Also, most banks argue that a company should have a base of large institutional shareholders, since these are the investors that bring liquidity to the market. Setting a price that attracts the right mix of shareholders is an art that Wall Street claims to have mastered.

不过,在近几年的丑闻之后,Google似乎不再打算把华尔街投行往好处想了。一名接近Google的人士愤怒地表示,投行在股市繁荣期故意将股价定低,藉此回报投行偏爱的客户。这个观点认为,由于投行这种几乎不加掩饰的贪污行为,硅谷创业者和风险资本家被剥夺了一部分本应属于他们的资金。
After the scandals of recent years, though, it seems that Google is no longer prepared to give Wall Street the benefit of the doubt. One person close to the company fumes that banks deliberately under-priced stock during the boom as a way of rewarding favoured clients. According to this view, Silicon Valley's entrepreneurs and venture capitalists were short-changed by this thinly-veiled form of graft.

就Google的IPO而言,硅谷最具影响力的金融机构中将有两家受到影响。早期投资于这家互联网创业公司的Sequoia Capital公司和Kleiner Perkins公司已稳获数十亿美元的投资利润。而且,估计Google的创始人塞尔吉&#8226;布林(Sergey Brin)和拉里&#8226;佩奇(Larry Page)仍持有Google三分之一的股权,因此他们在Google IPO中也能得到巨大的经济利益。
In Google's case, two of the Valley's most influential financial houses will be affected. Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins already stand to make billions of dollars from their early investments in the internet start-up. Also, with an estimated third of the company still in their names, Google's founders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, have a powerful financial interest.

Google正考虑选择的是一种曾在上世纪90年代股市繁荣时期被广泛采用的方案,即聘请两三家投行来处理认购定单及股票配售程序,以确保任何一家投行都无法为了自己的利益而操纵IPO。
One option being looked at by Google was commonly used during the 1990s boom: hire two or three banks to handle the order-building and allocation process, to ensure that no one bank could control the IPO to its own advantage. .

一些接近Google的人士正在力推一个更加戏剧性的方案,即通过网上拍卖收集认购定单。两名了解Google IPO程序的人士称,该方案对Google格外具有吸引力,因为Google的基本业务就是通过“实时”的网上拍卖出售广告空间。在拍卖过程中,潜在的广告客户出价竞标,以便在Google的阉鹘峁?韵允酒湫畔ⅰR哉庵址绞焦??鍪圩约旱墓善保?饽训啦皇潜砻鱃oogle对网上拍卖程序有十足信心的最佳方法吗?
A more dramatic answer being pushed by some people close to Google would be to collect orders through an online auction. This approach has an added appeal for the company, say two people close to the IPO process: Google's basic business involves selling advertising space by way of a "live" online auction in which potential advertisers bid to have their messages displayed alongside Google's search results. What better demonstration of its faith in the internet auction process than to sell its own shares to the public that way?

而大型投行则声称,电子拍卖存在内在的缺陷。不错,电子拍卖可能是个好方法,可以通过较为透明的方式收集和比较认购定单。但从长远来看,为Google股票确定的最高售价可能会有损公司及其股东。
The big banks, for their part, claim that electronic auctions have inherent flaws. True, they may be a good way of collecting and comparing orders in a transparent way. However, finding the maximum price at which Google's shares could be sold might harm both the company and its shareholders in the long run.

一位银行家警告说,这家公司在全球范围内极受关注,因此,它一定会吸引许多渴望迅速致富的小股东下单认购。结果是,IPO股票开始交易时常见的那种股价陡升现象就会在正式交易价格确定后出现。这时,公司及其风险投资者就能以更高的价格出售股票,从中获利。但是,被吸引来购买股票的大量小股东将非常不满,因为他们发现自己支付了过高的价格,其利益受到了损害。
The worldwide "buzz" that surrounds the company guarantees that it will attract orders from many small shareholders eager to make a quick killing, one banker warns. As a result, the sort of instant spike often seen in IPO shares once trading begins might happen instead at the time the formal pricing is set. The company and its venture capital backers would then benefit from getting a higher price for the shares that are sold - but at the cost of attracting a massive base of small shareholders who are disgruntled to find they paid an inflated price.

当然,Google可以选择它认为最稳定的股东群,如果将将股票出售给这样的投资者,则股票发售后的市场将会有较强的流动性。但这样做只是重复了银行过去所做的事:根据价格以外的因素决定哪一类股东对自己更有利,而置其他股东于不顾。
Google could choose to hand shares to investors it believes will bring the most stable shareholder base and liquid after-market. If it did that, though, it would be doing just what the banks have done before: favouring one group of shareholders over others on the basis of something other than price.

所有这一切都表明,围绕Google IPO的谈判可能还有很长一段路要走。但有些事情至少是有可能发生的。Google及其投资银行已一致同意,与网络热潮时的IPO相比,这次IPO需要显著提高透明度。而一向唱主角的华尔街这次或许只好接受一个更次要的角色,因为他们仍在努力修复那个时代留给他们的创伤。IPO承销业务迄今仍是华尔街获利最丰厚的业务。
All of this suggests that the negotiations surrounding the Google IPO probably have a long way to run. But some things at least seem likely. The company and its banks already agree that a far higher degree of transparency is needed than existed during the dotcom boom. And Wall Street, still trying to repair the damage of that era, may have to accept a lesser role in what has until now been its most profitable business.
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月24 日每日英语---调查揭开纽约证交所旧疮疤 Probe opens old wounds at NYSE

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10 月24 日
调查揭开纽约证交所旧疮疤 Probe opens old wounds at NYSE


有些人对纽约证交所(NYSE)的监管权及其使用该权力的能力和愿望提出批评;另一些人则认为,纽约证交所必须保留其作为自我监管组织的宝贵地位——这一地位赋予它极大的权力,可决定它的会员能做什么,以及不能做什么。但批评人士有一个词要告诉这些人。
Critics of the New York Stock Exchange's regulatory powers - and of its ability and willingness to use them - have one word for those who argue that it must retain its prized status as a self-regulatory organisation, which gives it vast power over what its users can and cannot do.

这个词是“Oakford”。
The word is "Oakford".

Oakford是一家股票经纪公司,于上世纪90年代末停业。此前,纽约证交所数名场内经纪商被控进行“先行交易”,并与Oakford分享利润。“先行交易”是指交易员先于客户进行交易,并在买入价和卖出价之间赚取差价。
This was a brokerage firm that went out of business at the end of the 1990s after several NYSE floor brokers were charged with "flipping" stocks - trading ahead of customers at prices between the bid and offer levels - and sharing the profits with Oakford.

按照美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的规定,先行交易为非法操作。但在上世纪90年代,这种操作在纽约证交所交易大厅里相当普遍。证交会在开始调查后发现,纽约证交所实际上对此采取了熟视无睹的态度。
Flipping was considered illegal by the Securities and Exchange Commission. But it was a fairly common practice on the NYSE floor in the 1990s. When the SEC began investigating, it found the exchange had effectively turned a blind eye.

被控的场内经纪商辩解说,由于得到监管者纽约证交所的宽恕,他们的行为不可能不正当。他们发现,他们的辩护得到法庭的支持,证交会因此被迫撤诉,从而导致本应是监管部门对流氓交易获胜的一次审判,最终以尴尬收场。
The accused floor brokers found that courts supported their contention that they could not have been doing wrong when their own regulator - the NYSE - condoned the practice. The SEC was forced to retreat, turning what should have been a victory against rogue trading into an embarrassment.

自那以后,证交会与纽约证交所的关系一直比较僵,目前也未明显改善。(上世纪90年代初,纽约证交所主席一职由威廉&#8226;唐纳森(William Donaldson)担任,而他目前担任证交会主席。)
Relations between the SEC and the NYSE have been sour ever since. They have not obviously improved. (The chairman of the NYSE in the early 1990s was William Donaldson, who now heads the SEC.)

上周,证交会命令纽约证交所加快展开一项新调查,并扩大调查范围。调查内容包括,特设经纪商涉嫌在买方和卖方之间过度干涉。特设经纪商是场内交易活动的控制者。
It emerged last week that the SEC had forced the NYSE to step up the pace and scale of a new probe. This involves alleged excessive interference between buyers and sellers by the specialist firms that control activity on the floor.

纽约证交所称,它发现了五家特设经纪商进行此类操作的证据。这五家公司分别是:Van der Moolen、LaBranche、高盛/斯必李&凯洛格(Goldman Sachs/Spear Leeds & Kellogg)、Fleet Specialist及Bear Wagner。这些公司面临一项总额达1.50亿美元的罚款,这是自纽约证交所1934年成为自己的监管者以来最严厉的一次罚款。
The NYSE said it had found evidence of such practices among five firms - Van der Moolen, LaBranche, Goldman Sachs/Spear Leeds & Kellogg, Fleet Specialist and Bear Wagner. They face a collective fine of up to $150m - the most severe monetary penalty since the NYSE became its own regulator in 1934.

在Oakford事件后,本不应该再出现滥用交易职权的行为。因此纽约证交所现在迫切需要明确的是:这些特设经纪商的活动是监管不力的结果,还是应归咎于更大的问题,即特设经纪商的角色问题。
The pressing question for the NYSE now - given that trading abuses were not supposed to recur after Oakford - is whether the specialists' activities were the result of poor regulation or point to a wider problem about the role of the specialists.

本&#8226;斯泰尔(Benn Steil)是美国对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)的一名成员,同时担任设在伦敦的virt-x电子交易市场的董事。他说,纽约证交所的失职不是出在监管上,而是在结构上。斯泰尔先生说,只要纽约证交所继续依赖并纵容特设经纪商制度,只要中介在股票交易中的作用仍如此之大,以至于很难建立一个让监管者进行监视的审计跟踪系统,那么交易违规行为就“不可避免”。
Benn Steil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who is on the board of the London-based electronic market virt-x, argues that the failure at the NYSE is not regulatory but structural. Instances of trading malfeasance are "inevitable" so long as the NYSE relies on and indulges the specialist system, Mr Steil says, and so long as stock trading remains so intermediated that it is difficult to establish an audit trail for regulators to follow.

但纽约证交所的会员强调说,Oakford丑闻爆发后,证交所进行了改革。随着最近出现流氓交易(rogue trading)的迹象,证交所还将进一步改革。经纪公司Lek Securities的董事长塞缪尔&#8226;莱克(Samuel Lek)表示:“我相信,纽约证交所会有一个行之有效的(监管)制度。”
NYSE members insist, however, that changes were made in the wake of Oakford and will be made again in the wake of the latest evidence of rogue trading. "I believe we're seeing a [regulatory] system here that's working," says Samuel Lek, chairman of Lek Securities, a brokerage.

莱克表示:“要说(纽约证交所的监管)自Oakford丑闻后完全未变是错误的。纽约证交所没有取消场内经纪商,但确实结束了经纪商滥用职权的行为。在特设经纪商方面也是如此。”
"It would be wrong to say nothing has changed [in NYSE regulation] since Oakford. They didn't get rid of floor brokers but they did end abuses. It's the same with the specialists."

纽约证交所是一家已有211年历史的证券交易市场。证交所临时董事长约翰&#8226;里德(John Reed)明确反对将证交所的监管职能和市场职能分离。许多会员对他表示支持。纽约证交所的监管如有任何更改,都会令这些会员感到担心。但纳斯达克(Nasdaq)等其它证券交易市场都在将所有权和监管权分离,因此纽约证交所面临采取同样行动的压力。
John Reed, NYSE interim chairman, has spoken out against splitting regulatory and market functions. He is backed by many NYSE members nervous about any change in the regulation of the 211-year-old stock market. Yet with other exchanges such as Nasdaq severing ownership ties with their own regulators, there is pressure for the NYSE to do the same.

里德先生上周在国会表示,纽约证交所即将公布一揽子改革措施,主要是在公司治理方面进行彻底改革。他指出,改革后商业部门和监管部门至少会有单独的汇报结构。这将部分弥补纽约证交所一系列丑闻所暴露出的监管漏洞。
Mr Reed told Congress last week that a package of reforms for the NYSE would be unveiled soon, mostly to overhaul corporate governance. He indicated the commercial and regulatory divisions would, at the least, have separate reporting structures. This would partly address the regulatory lacunae revealed by successive scandals at the NYSE.

在某些领域,人们的一个观念可能也会因此开始改变。这个观念就是,监管部门执行的是纽约证交所一个更远大的使命,这就是保持证交所在美国股票交易中的主导地位。从这一点来看,人们最不希望看到的就是一场监管革命。
It may also begin to change the perception in some quarters that the regulatory division is the enforcer of the wider NYSE mission to maintain its dominance of US equity trading. In this view, the last thing anyone should expect is a regulatory revolution.

俄亥俄州立大学教授戴尔&#8226;奥斯特勒(Dale Oesterle)表示,长期以来,纽约证交所一直不愿从制度上解决自身的监管失效问题,导致丑闻周而复始,迫使证交所只能头痛医头,脚痛医脚了。证交所形成了“一种规则渐变模式,但这只是装装门面,丑闻还会爆发”。
Dale Oesterle, a professor at Ohio State University, says there is a longstanding institutional unwillingness at the NYSE to address its own regulatory failings, leading to a cycle of scandal to which it has been forced to react ad hoc. There is "a pattern of incremental rule change, but it's just window dressing, and we move forward to the next scandal".

人们有这样的感觉:里德先生打算对纽约证交所进行大刀阔斧的改革。他是否能够成功,投资者很快就会清楚。
Mr Reed has given the impression that he intends to change a lot of things at the NYSE. Investors will know quite soon whether he can deliver.
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月23 日 每日英语--自助经济学的诱惑 The lure of DIY economics

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10 月23 日
自助经济学的诱惑 The lure of DIY economics


塞缪尔#布里坦(Samuel Brittan)称之为商人经济学。长期在国际组织担任公职的大卫#亨德森(David Henderson)则倾向于自助经济学的说法,这两种说法说的都是那些貌似正确,实属大谬的观点,持这些观点的是非经济学科班出身,但有实际知识的那些人。这些观点包括:一个国家的出口多多益善,进口则越少越好。新技术会造成失业。如果用公共开支来支持我的项目,不仅有利于我,还会创造工作机会。生产比其它形式的经济活动更重要。低利率有利于商业。有些人你要是让他对量子力学或者脑部手术发表见解,他们会三缄其口;但是说起欧元的经济后果,他们却毫不迟疑,说得头头是道。
Samuel Brittan calls it businessmen's economics. David Henderson, long an international civil servant, prefers DIY economics. Both refer to propositions that people who have practical knowledge but no qualifications in economics hold to be self-evident, but which are false. Countries would do better to export more and import less. New technology destroys jobs, and public spending on my projects not only helps me but creates jobs. Manufacturing is more important than other forms of economic activity. Business would benefit from lower interest rates. People who would pause before expressing opinions in quantum mechanics or undertaking brain surgery have no hesitation in pronouncing on the economic consequences of the euro.

自助的不仅仅是经济学和木工。现在还有自助医学,自助物理学。常识告诉我们,重物下落更快;太阳绕着地球转;把冰箱门打开会降低厨房温度。但是经验这东西我们如果没有经过专门训练,了解如何阐释的话,往往会受到它的误导。
DIY is not confined to economics and carpentry. There is DIY medicine and even DIY physics. Common sense tells us that heavier objects fall faster, the sun revolves round the earth and the kitchen will be cooler if you leave the refrigerator door open. But experience is often misleading if we are not trained to interpret it.

确实,羽毛等物落到地上速度很慢,但如果我们由此推断出普遍规律,那就会犯错误。我们看到太阳从东边起山,从西边下山,因此,太阳应该是绕着地球转的。这好像是明摆着的道理,持否定观点的人甚至为此上了火刑柱。但是我们只是观察到了太阳系的局部。当你研究行星之间的互动关系时,你会发现行星绕着太阳转是更为合理的宇宙观。如果你打开冰箱门,你会感到凉风从中出来。但是你没有看到接下来的连锁反应。冰箱的压缩机必须持续运转,以保持里面的温度,压缩机从冰箱后面排出热气,与冰箱前面出来的冷气相互抵消。
It is true that light objects such as feathers fall to the ground slowly, but we mistakenly infer a general rule. And we see the sun rise in the east and set in the west. It is so obvious that the sun circles the earth that people who denied it used to be burnt at the stake. But we only observe part of the solar system. When you study the interactions of moving planets you realise that orbits around the sun are a much more compelling way of understanding the universe. And when you open the fridge door, you can feel the cold air. What you do not see is the chain of consequences. The compressor works continuously to maintain the inside temperature, and the heat it ejects from the back of the fridge offsets the cold at the front.

理解复杂的系统,我们需要有科学研究和正规教育。仅仅作为消费者和生产者,我们对经济的了解还只是皮毛。这就如同我们常乘坐飞机,但并不会因此成为空气动力学专家。自助经济学的谬误多半是概括所致:我们的阅历只是有限的局部,却会由此错误地推断关于全体的特征。
Scientific research and formal education are needed to understand complex systems. We learn little about the economy by being consumers and producers, just as we do not become expert in aerodynamics as plane passengers. The fallacies of DIY economics are mostly the result of generalisation: we mistakenly infer the properties of the whole from our limited experience of a smaller part.

因为每当发生货币购买都必须有相应的销售,减少进口则会影响汇率和其它生产商的产量,正如打开冰箱门则对自动调温计发出信号,进而引起压缩机的相应活动。新技术或许会导致某些岗位人员的下岗,但是它改善了价格,提高了利润,因此会增加对新技术产品和其它非相关产品的需求。降低利率如果只有降低借贷成本这一个结果,那么它对商业是有好处的。但是利率的变化会有更为广泛的影响,所以制定财政政策是很有挑战性的任务。
Because every currency purchase must be matched by a sale, reducing imports effects exchange rates and the output of other producers, just as opening the fridge door alerts the thermostat and triggers the compressor. New technology may displace labour from individual jobs, but it enhances prices and profits and so increases demand for both the products of new technology and unrelated goods. Interest rate cuts would be good for business if their only effect was to reduce borrowing costs. But there are many more extensive consequences of interest rate changes, and that is why setting monetary policy is a challenging task.

当今产品与服务名目复杂,这是相互依存的经济造成的结果。汽车的刹车是否比引擎更为重要?问这种问题说明提问者对汽车这一复杂系统是多么无知。
The complex range of goods and services we need is the product of our interdependent economy. Are the brakes of a car more important than the engine? To ask the question is to display profound ignorance of the automobile as complex system.

飞机的乘客通常都能评论其乘机经历是愉快还是不愉快,但是飞机设计的问题,他们最好还是让航空工程师们去操心。商人不妨描述利率或者汇率变化对自己的企业有何影响,但他们所能说的也仅此而已。
Airline passengers can usefully comment on the comfort or discomfort they experience, but they do well to leave the design of the plane to aeronautical engineers. Businessmen can helpfully describe the effects of interest or exchange rates on their own business, but that defines the limit of what they can knowledgeably say.

伽利略爬上比萨斜塔,并不是因为他要查验铅球下落速度的快慢,而是因为这是他要性将信将疑的比萨商人们证明,地心引力并不是纯粹理论化的概念。自助经济学和自助医学一样,总是久盛不衰,其原因是因果之间很少有必然的联系。如果你用了蛇油,没有人能告诉你到底是蛇油发挥了作用,还是你自然而然康复了。物理学家还有机会做实验,通过实验一锤定音;医生和经济学家很少有这样的机会。但是连伽利略也无法说服询问者去用他的望远镜去观看,因为意识形态告诉他们,伽利略说他所看到的东西是不可能存在的。经济学上的问题,与伽利略的情形何其相似!
Galileo climbed the leaning tower, not because he needed to check how quickly a lead weight would fall, but because it was the only way to convince the sceptical merchants of Pisa that gravity was not a purely theoretical construct. DIY economics persists, like DIY medicine, because there are rarely definite connections between causes and effects. If you get better after taking the snake oil, no one can tell whether it was the snake oil or whether you would have got better anyway. Physicists have opportunities for decisive experiments; doctors and economists rarely have the chance. But even Galileo could not persuade the inquisitors to look through his telescope, because ideology told them that what he claimed to see could not be there. It is a familiar experience in economic matters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10月22日每日英语---企业丛林法则的牺牲品 Corporate jungle may claim another species as victim

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企业丛林法则的牺牲品 Corporate jungle may claim another species as victim


现在就将首席运营官(COO)记入濒危物种名单或许还为时过早,但是,他们就像青蛙和歌鸟,已经没有那么常见了。
It may be too early to put them on the endangered species list, but chief operating officers are a breed that, like frogs and songbirds, you just don't see as often.

每当少数几家公司任命COO时,同时就有数量略多的企业取消该职位。企业任命COO,目的是帮助过度繁忙的首席执行官(CEO)完成部分工作,减轻他们的压力。最近,电信集团斯普林特(Sprint)和口香糖制造商箭牌(Wrigley)等公司任命了COO。
For every handful of companies that appoints a COO to take the strain off an over-worked chief executive - recent examples include Sprint, the telecoms group, and Wrigley the chewing-gum maker - a slightly larger handful abolishes the position.

已决定取消COO职位的公司则有信用卡集团第一金融(Capital One)、太阳微系统(Sun Microsystems)和路透社(Reuters)等公司。
Companies that have decided to do away with the position include Capital One, the credit card group, Reuters and Sun Microsystems.

宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院(Wharton School of Business)的助理教授朱莉&#8226;沃尔夫(Julie Wulf)表示:“从统计数据看,现在的企业设置COO职位的可能性小于……10年前。”
Julie Wulf, an assistant professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, said: "Statistically speaking, companies are less likely to have chief operating officers than . . . a decade ago".

根据翰威特咨询公司(Hewitt Associates)提供的数据,朱莉&#8226;沃尔夫在对300家大型企业14年的情况进行仔细研究后,才做出上述结论。翰威特咨询公司是一家薪酬和福利咨询公司。
Her conclusion is based on a detailed study of 300 large companies over 14 years, based on data supplied by Hewitt Associates, the pay and benefits consulting firm.

朱莉&#8226;沃尔夫和芝加哥大学商学院(Chicago University business school)教授瑞占(Raghuram Rajan)表示,最可能的原因是,COO正成为“精简管理层级”的牺牲品。企业有着类似梯形金字塔形状的组织结构,它们希望取消COO职位,藉此来减少组织中高层和底层间的层级。
She and Professor Raghuram Rajan, of Chicago University business school, say the most likely explanation is that chief operating officers are falling victim to "delayering", by which companies reduce the number of steps between the top and bottom of the organisational ziggurat.

有理论认为,CEO是企业的最终管理者,他似乎应更多地承担直接监督企业的职责。朱莉&#8226;沃尔夫和瑞占的研究成果巩固了这个理论。他们的研究显示,20世纪90年代末,平均每个大企业有7个人向CEO汇报,而1986年只有4个人。
The theory that the CEO, the ultimate boss, seems to be shouldering more responsibility for direct oversight of the business is strengthened by their finding that the average big-company chief executive had seven people reporting to them at the end of the 1990s, against four in 1986.

这并不是因为公司规模扩大了。在此期间,平均每家公司的雇员人数还略有下降。
This was not because companies were getting bigger; the average number of employees per company fell slightly over that time.

通用电气(General Electric)董事长兼首席执行官杰弗里&#8226;伊梅尔特(Jeffrey Immelt)例证了这一趋势:去年通用金融(GE Capital)董事长丹尼斯&#8226;内登(Denis Nayden)辞职后,公司没有任命其他人接替他,而是改为通用金融四个业务部门的主管直接向伊梅尔特先生汇报。
Jeffrey Immelt, chairman and chief executive of General Electric, exemplifies the trend. When Denis Nayden quit as GE Capital chairman last year, he was not replaced. Instead, the heads of its four business units report directly to Mr Immelt.

伊梅尔特先生接着说:“这样做的原因很简单:我想同金融服务团队进行更多直接的交流。”因此,一个管理层次被撤消,而CEO净增了三个直接向他汇报的人。
Mr Immelt said then: "The reason for doing this is simple - I want more direct contact with the financial services teams." Thus a management layer was removed, and the CEO gained a net three additional reports.

通用电气怎么做,其他美国公司肯定跟着学。但是,如今的CEO正在扩大管理理论家所谓的“控制范围”,这是否有好处呢?
Where GE goes, other US companies are sure to follow. But is it healthy that today's chief executives are increasing what management theorists call their "span of control"?

对此,各人看法不一。虽然根据管理学理论,最好的CEO往往忙于运营细节,但无数CEO的失败,至少部分是因为他们倾向于“微观管理”。
Opinions are mixed. While management lore is that the best chief executives are steeped in operational detail, countless CEOs owe their downfall, at least in part, to a tendency to "micro-manage".

美林(Merrill Lynch)的科技分析师史蒂夫&#8226;米卢诺维奇(Steve Milunovich)认为,太阳微系统公司有可能落入这个圈套。上周,他敦促这家陷入困境的电脑公司重新设立COO的职位,来制衡司考特&#8226;麦克尼利(Scott McNealy)的巨大影响力。麦克尼利是公司的董事长、CEO和创建者。
Steve Milunovich, technology analyst at Merrill Lynch, believes Sun Microsystems is in danger of falling into this trap. Last week he urged the troubled computer company to recreate the COO's position to counter the tremendous influence of Scott McNealy, chairman, chief executive and founder.

沃尔夫教授认为,许多公司已找到一个折衷方法,即让CEO进一步负责执行事务,而部门经理享有更多决策权。
Prof Wulf believes that many companies have found a compromise where the CEO is closer to the action, yet divisional managers have more decision-making authority.

沃尔夫教授说,在那些撤消了COO职位的公司里,这些部门经理更有可能被任命为公司的“某某官”。这表明他们至少继承了他们前任上司的一些职权。
She says these managers are more likely to be appointed "officer" of the corporation in companies that have eliminated the position of COO. This suggests they inherit at least some of their former bosses' authority.

科技的发展可能推动了这一现象的产生。很多美国企业在上世纪90年代采用了“企业资源规划”(ERP)等管理系统,借助这些系统,CEO们获得各单个业务部门的业绩信息变得更加容易了。
Technology could be helping to create this new status quo. "Enterprise resource planning" systems of the kind many US companies implemented in the 1990s make it easier for CEOs to get information about the performance of individual business units.

但这类系统也让部门经理们无需再依赖企业管理层,就得到了作出明智决策所必需的有关数据。
But such systems also let divisional managers get the data needed to make informed decisions without having to rely on the corporate bureaucracy.

尽管如此,今天CEO享有的“控制范围”虽然增加了,但并不仅仅是因为精减管理层级和CEO权力扩大所致。另一个原因是“首席某某官”职位的泛滥。
That said, delayering and CEO aggrandisement are not the only factors behind the increased "span of control" today's CEOs enjoy. Another part of the explanation is the proliferation of "C-suite" executive positions.

例如,10年前很难找到直接向CEO汇报的首席信息官,但在过去数年里,IT支出已渐渐占美国企业所有资本开支近一半比例,今天的首席信息官已经是个权力更大的人物了。
For example, a decade ago it was rare to find the chief information officer reporting directly to the CEO. Today, after years in which IT spending has accounted for nearly half of all capital spending by US corporations, the CIO is a more powerful figure.

类似的,美国企业以后更有可能出现“首席营销官”、“首席人力资源官”、“首席竞争官”以及“首席学习官”等新职位。
Similarly, US companies are more likely to have chief marketing officers, chief human resource officers, chief competitive officers and chief learning officers.

有些情况下这些都是新的职位,有时则就是换了个新头衔、多了个新身份的老职位。
In some cases these are new positions. In others they are old jobs with new titles and additional status.

换句话说,如果说精减管理层级的作法正在破坏COO的生存环境,那么新的“首席某某官”职位的产生便增加了对稀缺资源的竞争。
In other words, if delayering is destroying the natural habitat of COOs, the evolution of new C-level positions has increased competition for scarce resources.

当然,最珍贵的资源仍然是对CEO施加影响,因为他们高坐在公司职位“食物链”的顶端。
The most precious resource of all remains the ear of the CEO, the species perched right at the top of the organisational food chain.
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10月21日每日英语---美元走低:美公司盈利大增的秘密 Slide in US dollar the secret behind big earnings growth

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美元走低:美公司盈利大增的秘密 Slide in US dollar the secret behind big earnings growth


上周,一连串美国大公司相继公布强劲的盈利增长数据,股市连续攀升,把标准普尔500(S& 500)指数推至16个月新高。
A succession of big US corporate names joined the list of companies posting strong earnings growth last week, and the stock market continued to climb, pushing the S& 500 index to a 16-month high.

在推动盈利和股价上升的各种因素中,有一个特殊因素没有得到应有的赞誉:即美元对美主要贸易伙伴货币的大幅贬值。
Among the mix of factors driving this growth in earnings and stock prices, one in particular is not getting the credit it deserves: the slide in the value of the US dollar against the currencies of the US's main trading partners.

一些首席执行官承认,在把公司海外子公司的利润转换成美元时,美元疲软起到了积极的作用。但是,美经济复苏被视为盈利迅速增长的主要原因。
Some chief executives have acknowledged the role of a weakening dollar in the conversion of profits from their overseas affiliates, but the rebound in the US economy is seen as the main reason why earnings are growing so fast.

然而,美元的表现对股市走向影响重大。
Nevertheless, the performance of the dollar speaks volumes about which direction the stock market takes.

富国资产管理公司(Wells Capital Management)的首席投资策略师詹姆斯&#8226;保尔森(James Paulsen)表示,上世纪90年代牛市终结与美元升值密切相关。同样,历时三年的熊市告终也与美元下滑有关。美元下跌始于去年年中,目前继续走低,但跌速已经放慢。
James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, says the demise of the 1990s bull market was closely linked to a rising dollar. The end of the three-year bear market is similarly linked to the currency's slide, which began in the middle of last year and still continues, although at a slower pace.

“美元在结束90年代盈利大周期中扮演了关键角色,而今,美元正在启动目前的盈利周期,”保尔森说道。
"The dollar played a critical role in ending the great 1990s profit cycle and it is kick-starting the current profits cycle," Mr Paulsen says.

标准普尔500指数已较3月中旬的低位上扬31%,且比年初上涨了近19%。相对一揽子货币计算的贸易加权指数显示,美元分别比3月中旬和年初下跌6%和9.6%。欧元兑美元在2002年年末为1.05美元,5月底为1.19美元,而本周为1.17美元。
The S& 500 index has risen by 31 per cent since its low point in mid-March, and by nearly 19 per cent since the start of the year. In the same periods, the dollar's value according to a trade-weighted index against a basket of currencies has declined by 6 per cent and 9.6 per cent respectively. A euro cost $1.05 at the end of 2002, $1.19 at the end of May, and $1.17 this week.

同时,企业盈利增长也很少这么强劲过。进入第三季业绩发布季节后,大多数企业公布的业绩都超出了华尔街预期。据Thomson/First Call预测,继今年上半年美国企业盈利大增后,今年第三、第四季度的盈利增长率应分别为16.1%和21.9%。
Corporate earnings growth, meanwhile, has rarely been so robust. With the reporting season for third-quarter figures now under way, most companies are posting results ahead of Wall Street expectations. According to Thomson/First Call, the rate of earnings growth should be 16.1 per cent in the third quarter, and 21.9 per cent in the fourth, after similar surges in the first half of the year.

分析师表示,在第二季度的盈利增长中,美元疲软至少直接贡献了两个百分点。MG金融集团(MG Financial Group)的首席外汇分析师阿什拉夫&#8226;莱迪(Ashraf Laidi)说:“这是外汇影响盈利换算的经典范例。”
At least two percentage points of the second quarter's earnings growth is directly attributable to the weak dollar, analysts say. "It's a textbook example of the impact of the currency on the translation element of earnings," says Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group.

在过去三年里,美国企业海外利润占总利润的比例变化很大。美洲银行(Bank of America)资本管理部门的首席市场策略师约瑟夫&#8226;昆兰(Joseph Quinlan)预测,美国企业有2.3万家海外子公司,而且,标准普尔500指数成份企业有30%的利润来自海外。
The proportion of profits earned by US companies outside the US has varied sharply in the past three years. Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at Bank of America's capital management arm, estimates that US companies have 23,000 overseas affiliates, and that about 30 per cent of the profits of S& 500 companies comes from abroad.

据经济分析局(BEA)预测,继美国企业海外子公司的利润于2003年第一季度锐减了76亿美元之后,第二季度又回升了17亿美元。经济分析局是美国商务部的下属机构。
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the Commerce Department, profits of overseas affiliates rose by $1.7bn in the second quarter of 2003, after tumbling by $7.6bn in the first.

经济分析局的数据显示,美国企业海外获得的年利润于2001年达到了1508亿美元的峰值;2002年跌至1193亿美元;此后继续下跌,到2003年第一季度,按年率计算后的利润为1065亿美元。
BEA figures show that annual profits earned overseas peaked at $150.8bn in 2001, fell to $119.3bn in 2002 and continued to slide, to an annualised $106.5bn, in the first quarter of 2003.

在第二季度,这一数字微升至1082亿美元,按年率折算,这大概相当于美国公司该季度全部利润的12%。
They rose slightly to $108.2bn in the second quarter - about 12 per cent of the total annualised profits of US companies in that quarter.

就美国公司的海外利润构成而言,英国、加拿大和日本依次是三个最重要的海外市场。这就意味着美元兑欧元汇率对美国公司盈利或股价的影响,远远不如美元兑英镑或美元兑日元的影响那么大。
The three most important overseas markets for US companies' earnings are the UK, Canada and Japan, in that order. This means the dollar/euro exchange rate has much less impact on earnings or the value of stocks than the dollar/sterling or dollar/yen rates.

2002年,美国公司在日本获利更多,它们在日本分支机构的收入达68亿美元。这要比美国公司在法国和德国业务的利润总和还多,昆兰先生说。
US companies earned more in Japan in 2002 - $6.8bn in foreign affiliate income - than the combined earnings of US companies' operations in France and Germany, Mr Quinlan says.

然而,美元疲软的受惠者并非只是利润大增的美国海外分公司。
But foreign-affiliate profits are not the only beneficiaries of a weakening dollar.

美元疲软对企业的国内盈利也有影响。分析师还表示,美元币值长期下滑,最终带来了更多的出口和更高的利润,进一步增强了企业的盈利能力。
It also has an impact on a company's domestic earnings. Analysts also say that the long slide in the value of the dollar is finally feeding through to higher exports and better margins, further boosting profitability.

美元下跌最终或许将迫使美国利率上升。美国的利率水平目前正处于两代人时间内的最低点,它在美国经济复苏的过程中扮演了一个重要角色。
The dollar's slide may eventually force a rise in US interest rates - which are at their lowest levels in two generations and have played a crucial role in the revival of the US economy.

但是,由于美国贸易逆差持续扩大,大多数观察家都说,美国别无选择,只能任由美元疲软,特别是对亚洲国家的货币走软。在上月七国集团迪拜会议有关汇率的声明中,这一立场似乎得到了加强。
But, as the US trade deficit continues to widen, most observers say the US has no choice but to allow the dollar to weaken, especially against Asian currencies - a stance that appeared to be reinforced by the Group of Seven Dubai statement on exchange rates last month.

“美国的贸易逆差如此之大(且还在上升),因此美元不得不背道而驰,以贬值来求得些许平衡,”保尔森先生说。
"The US trade deficit is so large [and rising] that the dollar has to go in the other direction in order to provide a bit of balance," Mr Paulsen says.
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月20 日每日英语--通用汽车搭乘“中国高速” GM hitches a ride on the Chinese expressway

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10 月20 日
通用汽车搭乘“中国高速” GM hitches a ride on the Chinese expressway


要理解为什么通用汽车(General Motors)把中国市场看成牛市,只要画一张表,把中国大陆的汽车销售与当年日本、韩国和台湾在同等发展水平下的销售情况一比较,就一目了然了。
To understand how bullish General Motors is about China, one graph, plotting the mainland's vehicle sales against those of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan at a similar stage of development, tells the story.

上周,在上海召开的一次通气会上,这一全球最大的汽车公司表示,中国目前的销售呈现出类似当年亚洲四小龙的那种上升态势。
In a briefing by GM, the world's biggest automotive company, in Shanghai this week, showed that Chinese sales so far were tracking the trend followed by north Asia's erstwhile "tiger economies" when they were rising.

最新的数据表明,在2000年至2003年间,中国的汽车销售将从210万辆多一点翻番至今年的420万辆,从而一跃成为仅次于美国和日本的全球第三大市场。
Chinese vehicle sales, according to the most recent figures, will double between 2000 and 2003, from just over 2.1m to about 4.2m this year, making it the world's third-largest market after the US and Japan.

不过,如果通用汽车的预言真能实现,那么,它这几年来一浪高过一浪的增长,同在中国未来的销售相比,也不过是小池涟漪而已。
But if GM's projections are to be believed, what looks to have been a wave of growth in recent years is a mere ripple compared with future sales in China.

“事实上,人们预期,中国的销售要超过其它三个国家在同等经济发展时期的水平,”通用汽车在中国的执行总裁墨斐(Phil Murtaugh)说道。他表示,通用期望,到2025年时,中国取代美国成为全球最大的汽车市场;目前公司正在按照这个想法作规划。
"In fact, sales in China are expected to stay ahead of the three other [countries] at a similar level of economic development," said Phil Murtaugh, GM's chief executive in China. Mr Murtaugh says GM expects China to become the world's largest market by 2025, overtaking the US, and the company is planning accordingly.

除了别克(Buick)系列的轿车外,通用汽车还在开发品种更多的雪佛莱(Chevrolet)系列。而且,它准备明年把凯迪拉克(Cadillac)也推向市场。
On top of its Buick-branded line of cars, GM is developing a broader range of vehicles stamped with the Chevrolet sticker, and is also preparing to launch the Cadillac brand next year.

8月份,该公司在上海的旗舰合资厂又增加了一个生产班次,从而实现24小时三班倒生产。而它在广西参股的汽车厂,也能在2006年之前将产能翻番至38万辆。该厂生产商务用车和微型客车。
Its flagship joint venture plant in Shanghai added a third shift in August to produce cars round the clock, and its partly-owned plant in Guangxi province, which makes commercial vehicles and mini cars, will more than double capacity to 380,000 by 2006.

其它外国汽车制造商,特别是大众(Volkswagen)、丰田(Toyota)、本田(Honda)和尼桑(Nissan),也都在尽可能的扩大生产。许多评论家因此担心,跨国汽车制造商们的生产扩大将造成严重的产能过剩。
With other foreign car makers, especially Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda and Nissan, ramping up production as well, many commentators fret that multinational auto makers are building up a large overcapacity problem.

亚洲汽车资源(Automotive Resources Asia)咨询公司的迈克尔&#8226;杜恩(Michael Dunne)预测,外国和本地的汽车制造商将在2008年之前达到700万辆轿车的产能,而即使按“最乐观的需求增长”来估计, 销售也只能达到470万辆。
Michael Dunne of Automotive Resources Asia, a consultancy, estimates foreign and local carmakers will have capacity of 7m sedans by 2008, with sales "on the most rosy projections of demand" of 4.7m units.

“但没有哪一家汽车制造商甘心错失中国市场,”他说。
"But no automaker wants to be the one who lost China," he said.

这次在上海针对外国记者召开的通气会为期两天。会上通用汽车的总裁们作了发言。人们明显感到,他们根本没有时间考虑产能过剩的问题。
GM executives, who spoke during the two-day briefing of foreign reporters in Shanghai, gave every impression they barely had time to contemplate the overcapacity issue.

莫斐先生说:“从历史上看,我们在中国一直处于不利地位,因为我们一直在市场后面跟着跑。”
"Historically, we have been well behind the eight-ball in China because we have been chasing the market," said Mr Murtaugh.

“我们在今后的10年里都不会出口汽车;在我们看来,中国正处于国内市场阶段。”
"In the next 10 years we will not be exporting cars - we are looking at China as a domestic market, period."

通用汽车占有8.2%的汽车市场,大约9%至10%的轿车市场。他们拒绝透露在中国的盈利情况。但杜恩先生认为,该公司去年在亚太地区的利润是美国的两倍,而且其中大部分收益来自中国,有一小部分来自澳大利亚。
GM has 8.2 per cent of the total vehicle market, and about 9-10 per cent of sedan sales. GM declined to give any figures for profitability in China. But Mr Dunne said GM's Asia-Pacific profits were double those in the US last year, and that most had come from China, with a contribution from Australia.

他认为中国市场的另一个特征是,高价轿车所占的比例相当高。在去年售出的轿车中,大约有30%超过3万美元。
Another feature of the Chinese market, according to Mr Dunne, is the high percentage of expensive cars - about 30 per cent of cars sold over the last year cost more than US$30,000.

杜恩先生把推动中国轿车销售的“引擎”总结为这样几点:在某些细分市场上的降价风暴,人们可支配收入的增加,对最新款式的追求,以及经济的发展。但是否还有其它不那么明显的原因可以解释中国人对买车的热情呢?通用汽车的莫斐先生说道:“轿车能给你一种自由的感觉。”
Chinese car sales are being fuelled by what Mr Dunne calls a perfect storm of falling prices in some segments of the market, rising disposable income, a rash of new models and a growing economy. Asked if there was another, less tangible, reason why Chinese were so keen to buy cars, GM's Mr Murtaugh said: "Cars give you an element of freedom."

他笑着补充说:“自行车也能给你自由,但不管怎么说,轿车要快得多。”
With a smile, he added: "Bicycles [China's traditional mode of transport] give you freedom too, but cars go a hell of a lot faster."
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月20 日每日英语--通用汽车搭乘“中国高速” GM hitches a ride on the Chinese expressway

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10 月20 日
通用汽车搭乘“中国高速” GM hitches a ride on the Chinese expressway


要理解为什么通用汽车(General Motors)把中国市场看成牛市,只要画一张表,把中国大陆的汽车销售与当年日本、韩国和台湾在同等发展水平下的销售情况一比较,就一目了然了。
To understand how bullish General Motors is about China, one graph, plotting the mainland's vehicle sales against those of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan at a similar stage of development, tells the story.

上周,在上海召开的一次通气会上,这一全球最大的汽车公司表示,中国目前的销售呈现出类似当年亚洲四小龙的那种上升态势。
In a briefing by GM, the world's biggest automotive company, in Shanghai this week, showed that Chinese sales so far were tracking the trend followed by north Asia's erstwhile "tiger economies" when they were rising.

最新的数据表明,在2000年至2003年间,中国的汽车销售将从210万辆多一点翻番至今年的420万辆,从而一跃成为仅次于美国和日本的全球第三大市场。
Chinese vehicle sales, according to the most recent figures, will double between 2000 and 2003, from just over 2.1m to about 4.2m this year, making it the world's third-largest market after the US and Japan.

不过,如果通用汽车的预言真能实现,那么,它这几年来一浪高过一浪的增长,同在中国未来的销售相比,也不过是小池涟漪而已。
But if GM's projections are to be believed, what looks to have been a wave of growth in recent years is a mere ripple compared with future sales in China.

“事实上,人们预期,中国的销售要超过其它三个国家在同等经济发展时期的水平,”通用汽车在中国的执行总裁墨斐(Phil Murtaugh)说道。他表示,通用期望,到2025年时,中国取代美国成为全球最大的汽车市场;目前公司正在按照这个想法作规划。
"In fact, sales in China are expected to stay ahead of the three other [countries] at a similar level of economic development," said Phil Murtaugh, GM's chief executive in China. Mr Murtaugh says GM expects China to become the world's largest market by 2025, overtaking the US, and the company is planning accordingly.

除了别克(Buick)系列的轿车外,通用汽车还在开发品种更多的雪佛莱(Chevrolet)系列。而且,它准备明年把凯迪拉克(Cadillac)也推向市场。
On top of its Buick-branded line of cars, GM is developing a broader range of vehicles stamped with the Chevrolet sticker, and is also preparing to launch the Cadillac brand next year.

8月份,该公司在上海的旗舰合资厂又增加了一个生产班次,从而实现24小时三班倒生产。而它在广西参股的汽车厂,也能在2006年之前将产能翻番至38万辆。该厂生产商务用车和微型客车。
Its flagship joint venture plant in Shanghai added a third shift in August to produce cars round the clock, and its partly-owned plant in Guangxi province, which makes commercial vehicles and mini cars, will more than double capacity to 380,000 by 2006.

其它外国汽车制造商,特别是大众(Volkswagen)、丰田(Toyota)、本田(Honda)和尼桑(Nissan),也都在尽可能的扩大生产。许多评论家因此担心,跨国汽车制造商们的生产扩大将造成严重的产能过剩。
With other foreign car makers, especially Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda and Nissan, ramping up production as well, many commentators fret that multinational auto makers are building up a large overcapacity problem.

亚洲汽车资源(Automotive Resources Asia)咨询公司的迈克尔&#8226;杜恩(Michael Dunne)预测,外国和本地的汽车制造商将在2008年之前达到700万辆轿车的产能,而即使按“最乐观的需求增长”来估计, 销售也只能达到470万辆。
Michael Dunne of Automotive Resources Asia, a consultancy, estimates foreign and local carmakers will have capacity of 7m sedans by 2008, with sales "on the most rosy projections of demand" of 4.7m units.

“但没有哪一家汽车制造商甘心错失中国市场,”他说。
"But no automaker wants to be the one who lost China," he said.

这次在上海针对外国记者召开的通气会为期两天。会上通用汽车的总裁们作了发言。人们明显感到,他们根本没有时间考虑产能过剩的问题。
GM executives, who spoke during the two-day briefing of foreign reporters in Shanghai, gave every impression they barely had time to contemplate the overcapacity issue.

莫斐先生说:“从历史上看,我们在中国一直处于不利地位,因为我们一直在市场后面跟着跑。”
"Historically, we have been well behind the eight-ball in China because we have been chasing the market," said Mr Murtaugh.

“我们在今后的10年里都不会出口汽车;在我们看来,中国正处于国内市场阶段。”
"In the next 10 years we will not be exporting cars - we are looking at China as a domestic market, period."

通用汽车占有8.2%的汽车市场,大约9%至10%的轿车市场。他们拒绝透露在中国的盈利情况。但杜恩先生认为,该公司去年在亚太地区的利润是美国的两倍,而且其中大部分收益来自中国,有一小部分来自澳大利亚。
GM has 8.2 per cent of the total vehicle market, and about 9-10 per cent of sedan sales. GM declined to give any figures for profitability in China. But Mr Dunne said GM's Asia-Pacific profits were double those in the US last year, and that most had come from China, with a contribution from Australia.

他认为中国市场的另一个特征是,高价轿车所占的比例相当高。在去年售出的轿车中,大约有30%超过3万美元。
Another feature of the Chinese market, according to Mr Dunne, is the high percentage of expensive cars - about 30 per cent of cars sold over the last year cost more than US$30,000.

杜恩先生把推动中国轿车销售的“引擎”总结为这样几点:在某些细分市场上的降价风暴,人们可支配收入的增加,对最新款式的追求,以及经济的发展。但是否还有其它不那么明显的原因可以解释中国人对买车的热情呢?通用汽车的莫斐先生说道:“轿车能给你一种自由的感觉。”
Chinese car sales are being fuelled by what Mr Dunne calls a perfect storm of falling prices in some segments of the market, rising disposable income, a rash of new models and a growing economy. Asked if there was another, less tangible, reason why Chinese were so keen to buy cars, GM's Mr Murtaugh said: "Cars give you an element of freedom."

他笑着补充说:“自行车也能给你自由,但不管怎么说,轿车要快得多。”
With a smile, he added: "Bicycles [China's traditional mode of transport] give you freedom too, but cars go a hell of a lot faster."
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月16 日每日英语--业务外包的弊端 The downside of outsourcing

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10 月16 日
业务外包的弊端 The downside of outsourcing


如果一个企业遇到了自己解决不了的问题,它们通常用外包的方式把问题处理掉。这是计算机业最伟大的创新者之一迈克尔&#8226;戴尔1998年对《哈佛商业评论》所说的话。
Outsourcing is usually a way of getting rid of problems a company cannot solve itself. That was what Michael Dell, one of the computer industry's great innovators, told the Harvard Business Review in 1998.

戴尔先生的话主要是针对IT行业,但是在IT行业也好,其它业务也好,这话让你想起了多少外包的实例?“经典的例子”,戴尔先生在《哈佛商业评论》上说,“是拥有2000人的IT部门。谁也不知道他们的工作内容,也不知道他们的工作原因。如何解决?将其外包给某给服务供应商,但愿他们能够解决。但是如果你五年后再来看,情形并不一定如意。”
Mr Dell was talking primarily about the information technology business, but how many instances of outsourcing, whether of IT or other activities, does this remind you of? "The classic case," Mr Dell told the journal, "is the company with 2,000 people in the IT department. Nobody knows what they do, and nobody knows why they do it. The solution: outsource IT to a service provider, and hopefully they'll fix it. But if you look at what happens five years later, it's not necessarily a pretty picture."

现在离戴尔说这一席话已经五年了,他说得没错,情形并不如意。PA咨询公司(PA Consulting)去年所做的一项国际性调查显示,66%的企业对其外包合同不满意。只有39%的企业说他们将与现有的外包商续约,15%的企业说他们准备将外包业务重新收归入企业内部。
It is five years since Mr Dell said that, and he is right - it is not a pretty picture. An international survey by PA Consulting last year found that 66 per cent of companies were disappointed with their outsourcing contracts. Only 39 per cent of the companies said they would renew contracts with their existing outsourcing suppliers and 15 per cent said they planned to bring services back in-house.

星期五,英国铁路基建企业网络铁道公司(Network Rail)决定将三个铁路维修外包合同从Jarvis公司收回。Jarvis公司是网络铁道公司的承包商,发生了一宗致命事故和两起出轨事件后,该公司屡被曝光,最后它宣布放弃自己所承包的铁路维修服务。
On Friday, Network Rail, owner of the UK's rail infrastructure, decided to take three railway maintenance contracts in-house after Jarvis, a contractor that has been in the news over a fatal accident and two derailments, announced it was giving them up.

对外包不满的还不只是企业。如果你去问顾客,你会发现大量顾客对银行、航空、公用事业的服务非常不满,你会听到他们怒气冲冲地抱怨,说他们为什么要与外包公司经营的电话中心打交道。
It is not just companies that are unhappy with outsourcing. Speak to the swelling crowd of customers dissatisfied with the service they are getting from banks, airlines and utilities and listen to their anger at having to deal with call centres run by outside contractors.

问题究竟何在?在一开始,外包是一系列可靠而行之有效的原则,实施者也是称职的经理人。但是到了后来,外包就走上了其它管理趋势的老路:不那么称职的经理人也开始外包,因为它时髦,因为管理顾问们说外包是好办法,总而言之,因为外包似乎是削减成本的绝佳方式。
What has gone wrong? Outsourcing started as a set of sound principles that worked when implemented by competent managers. Then, however, outsourcing followed the path of all management trends: less competent managers picked it up because it was fashionable, because management consultants told them it was a good idea, and - above all - because it seemed the perfect way to cut costs.

上周我与哈佛商学院的迈克尔&#8226;波特教授会面时,波特教授告诉我,外包已经成了赶时髦行为。很多企业希望能借此削减成本,最后却以失望告终。服务供应商们一开始的报价总显得很划算,等到续约时,价格却贵了很多。
Outsourcing has become just another fad, Michael Porter, the Harvard Business School professor, told me when I met him in London last week. Many of the companies that think they can cut costs end up disappointed. What looks like a good deal when the service provider first suggests a price turns out to be a lot more expensive when the contract comes up for renewal.

到了那时候,议价能力已经转移了。公司将业务外包后,发现自己已不能再做包出去的工作。承包人则处于更有利的要价地位。波特教授还说,外包还有其它隐藏的成本,比如无法控制工作质量。
By that stage, bargaining power has shifted. The companies that outsourced their services have often lost the ability to do the job themselves. The provider of the service is in a strong position to demand a higher price. There are other hidden costs of outsourcing, Prof Porter says, including a loss of control over the quality of work done.

反思外包问题,我们还需回到起点。外包并非新鲜事,它是工业史上常见的行为。如约翰&#8226;米克勒斯维特(John Micklethwait)和阿德连&#8226;伍尔德瑞奇(Adrian Wooldridge)在其所著的《公司》一书中所述,亨利&#8226;福特拥有过土地,土地上牧养的羊生产出汽车坐椅所需羊毛。约翰&#8226;D&#8226;洛克菲勒也拥有木材地,用以生产装石油的木桶。
To rethink outsourcing, we need to go back to the beginning. Outsourcing is not new; it has been one of the constants of industrial history. As John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge point out in their book The Company, Henry Ford owned the land on which the sheep that produced the wool for his car seats grazed. John D. Rockefeller owned the timber yards that made the barrels for his oil.

随着企业的发展,它们开始专于部分流程,如设计、组装汽车,或是开发、提炼石油,而从他人处购买羊毛或者木桶。
As companies developed, they began to concentrate on only part of the process, designing and assembling cars, or exploring for and extracting oil, while buying the wool or the barrels from someone else.

近年来,面临削减成本的压力,企业开始考虑新的问题:我们是否需要自己的安全人员?是否可以购买这种服务?既然有专门从事餐饮的公司,我们又何必自己经营员工餐厅?
In recent years, faced with pressure to cut costs, companies began to ask other questions: do we need our own security staff, or could we buy the service? And why do we run a staff restaurant when there are catering companies that do nothing else?

因计算机技术日趋复杂, 许多公司转向IT供应商和咨询公司。这些供应商知道哪里可以买到最新的设备,知道如何安装、组合、维修。实际上,他们常常却并不知道。这些IT承包商们不仅经常无法让系统运作起来,而且似乎对使用这些系统的企业业务一无所知。雇员和IT供应商两者拍桌子争吵,这已成了现代企业生活中的家常便饭。
As computer technology became more complex, companies turned to IT providers and consultants to do the work for them. These suppliers knew where to buy the latest equipment and how to install, integrate and maintain it. Except that they often did not. Not only could these IT contractors often not get the systems to work; they appeared to have no understanding of the business that was using them. Stand-up rows between employees and IT providers have become staples of modern corporate life.

关于外包,有很多企业似乎都疏忽了一点,那就是外包并不表示某项工作的管理结束了,而是意味着另一种管理开始了。这是一种不同的管理,而且往往更艰难。在这一管理模式下,你不是在要求本企业的雇员按质按量地完成工作,而是要让外面人按质按量地完成工作。既要让他们高质量完成工作,还不能动用招聘、解聘、升职、奖励这些熟悉的手段。你可以和承包商去争吵,或者威胁取代他们,但是一旦他们侵入了你的组织和系统,换掉他们又谈何容易?
The point many companies seem to miss about outsourcing is that it does not mark the end of managing an activity but the beginning of managing it in different, and often more difficult, ways. Instead of ensuring your own employees are doing their jobs properly, you have to ensure someone else's are. And you have to do that without the familiar tools of hiring, firing, promoting and rewarding. You can argue with a contractor and threaten to replace them, but once they have intruded themselves into your organisation and systems, that is often not easily done.

你可以订立“服务水平协议”,列出你所期望的所有明细项目,但这都是生硬的办法,只能是业绩不佳时的马后炮。有些公司能很好地处理与供应商的关系,但这需要有很高技巧,有时候服务供应商在另一个大陆,技巧要求就更不用说了。如戴尔先生所说,外包的企业常把一个不能解决的问题,变成另一个更不能解决的问题。
You may have "service level agreements", specifying the details of what you expect, but these are blunt instruments and deal with poor performance only after it has happened. Some companies handle relations with their service providers well, but it is a job for the highly skilled, particularly when the service provider is on another continent. As Mr Dell said, companies that outsource often turn a problem they cannot manage into one they can manage even less.

企业另外要做的一件事,是回到一个基本原则上去:决不能把最重要的工作外包出去。什么重要,什么不重要,从表面上往往看不出来。铁道维修看似铁路公司的分支业务,或是咨询顾问们所说的“非核心业务”。但是铁路公司外包出去的其实是公司安全的信誉,还有什么比这更核心的呢?
The other thing companies need to do is go back to the basic principle that they should never outsource what matters most. This is often not what it seems. Track maintenance might seem a subsidiary task to a railway company, one the consultants would describe as "non-core". But what that railway company is really contracting out is its reputation for safety, and nothing is more core than that.

对任何企业来说,另外一个核心是客户。只有与客户保持经常的、亲密的接触,企业才能够提供良好的服务,但与此同时,还要察觉接下来的业务走向。很多企业放心大胆地把业务交托出去,其弊端现在就已初露端倪;我想,未来的商业史学家可能更会对此表示震惊。
There is another thing that is core to any business: customers. Only by constant, intimate contact with customers can companies not only provide a decent service, but detect where the business is going next. That so many feel they can safely entrust this task to someone else - with the dismal consequences we see today - will, I suspect, be a source of astonishment to the business historians of tomorrow.
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月15 日每日英语--阿根廷让日本投资者头疼 Japan perplexed over Argentina

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10 月15 日
阿根廷让日本投资者头疼 Japan perplexed over Argentina


阿根廷无力偿付950亿美元的债务,至今仍让日本散户投资者大为头疼。阿根廷的代表本月将造访东京,以对它的债务重组方案做出解释,日本的散户投资者希望届时能找到一些答案。
Japanese retail investors, still reeling from Argentina's default on $95bn of debt, hope to find some answers when Argentine representatives visit Tokyo this month to explain the country's debt restructuring proposals.

阿根廷政府上月提议,将债券的面值削减75%,日本和全球各地投资者该对此感到惊愕。阿根廷政府还暗示,政府可能不会支付自2001年12月以来的到期利息,也就是自从阿根廷政府无力偿债的时间算起。
Japanese investors, like others around the world, were dismayed by Buenos Aires' proposal last month to make a 75 per cent cut in the face value of its bonds. The government has also indicated that it might not pay interest due since December 2001, when it defaulted on the debt.

美国和欧洲的投资者已组成了几个团体,以增强谈判实力,他们转向法厅寻求赔偿,或没收阿根廷的资产。
Investors in the US and Europe have organised themselves into groups to boost their negotiating clout, turning to the courts to seek compensation or to seize Argentine assets.

西方散户投资者已决定自己着手解决问题,但日本投资者依然不知所措。部分原因是,与美国和欧洲投资者相比,日本投资者不那么主动,但这也与代表其利益的日本银行意见不一有关。
While western retail investors have taken matters into their own hands, Japanese investors remain perplexed. This is partly because Japanese investors are generally less pro-active than their US or European counterparts. But it is also due to a disagreement among the Japanese banks that represent their interests.

东京三菱银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi)和瑞穗银行(Mizuho Corporate Bank)是三家代理银行中的两家。两家银行认为,在采取任何行动之前,尤其是考虑到阿根廷已保证公平对待债券持有人,应该先了解阿根廷方案的细节。
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi and Mizuho Corporate Bank, two of the three representative banks, argue that they should hear details of Argentina's proposal before taking any steps, particularly as Argentina has pledged to treat bondholders equally.

第三个代理银行新生银行(Shinsei)认为应当更加主动,它说,除非日本银行加入阿根廷债券重组机构(Abra),否则日本投资者的利益将不能获得同等对待。阿根廷债券重组机构是一家呼声很高的欧洲投资者团体。
Shinsei, the third bank, has a more aggressive approach and argues that Japanese investors could be left behind unless they join ranks with the Argentina Bond Restructuring Agency (Abra), a vocal European investors group.

新生银行呼吁债券持有人以投票方式决定是否加入阿根廷债券重组机构,但是根据日本的监管制度,除非各代理银行达成一致意见,否则会议无法举行。不过,如持有债券比例达到10%的投资者提议召开会议,新生银行便可绕开其他银行。
Shinsei is calling for bondholders to vote on joining Abra but, under Japanese regulations, the representative banks must agree unanimously before a meeting can proceed. It can circumvent the other banks only if investors holding 10 per cent of bonds call a meeting.

各代理银行对新生银行的提议意见不一,与此同时,一些投资者抱怨银行未向他们通报真相。
While the banks argue over Shinsei's proposals, some investors complain of being kept in the dark.

纸板业健康保险协会(Cardboard Industry Health Insurance Association)的森协渡边(Mamoru Watanabe)表示:“我们大概有上述两个选择,但由于没有足够的信息,我们无法决定怎样做最好。”纸板业健康保险协会购买了16亿日元的阿根廷债券。
"We supposedly have these two options but we can't decide what's best because we don't have enough information," said Mamoru Watanabe of the Cardboard Industry Health Insurance Association, which invested Y1.6bn in Argentina bonds.

纸板业健康保险协会是日本散户投资者中的典型。共有3万到4万日本散户投资者购买了大约3300亿日元的阿根廷武士债券和欧洲日元债券。武士债券是日本以外的发行人发行的、以日元计价的债券;欧洲日元债券则是一种日元国际债券。
This group is typical of the 30,000-40,000 Japanese retail investors who bought about Y330bn of Argentina samurais (yen-denominated bonds from non-Japanese issuers), and euroyen bonds (yen international bonds).

由于日本股票和土地价格下跌,利率接近零,保守的日本投资者便转而投资于阿根廷和其它国际债券。这些投资者多数是领取养老金的人。
With Japanese equities and land prices falling and interest rates near zero, conservative investors, many of them pensioners, turned to Argentine and other international bonds.

“我们当时从未想到一个国家也会破产,因此我们认为没什么好担心的,”渡边先生说。
"We never thought that a country could go bankrupt, so we thought we had nothing to worry about," said Mr Watanabe.

阿根廷拖欠债务对渡边先生的协会产生了影响,导致协会会长和一位董事辞职,因为他们未取得董事会批准便进行了投资。协会也陷入渡边先生所说的“40年历史上最糟糕的时期”,并裁减了员工。
Argentina's default has left a mark on Mr Watanabe's association. It led to the resignation of its president and a director who had made the investment without the board's approval. The association has cut jobs in what Mr Watanabe describes as "the worst time in our 40-year history".

渡边先生、瑞穗银行、东京三菱银行等投资者,都把希望寄托在阿根廷组织的一场国际路演上。这一活动预计在10月20日到30日在日本进行。“他们必须准备点东西给我们看看,”东京三菱银行的一位发言人说。
Mr Watanabe, Mizuho and Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi pin their hopes on an international road show organised by Argentina that is expected to come to Japan between October 20 and 30. "They must have something ready to present to us," said a spokesman for BTM.

不管阿根廷人能带来什么,对于日本和其它国家的投资者来说,谈判之路可能并不平坦的。阿根廷的债务拖欠是历史上最大的主权国家无力偿债事件,涉及以几种货币计价的100多类债券,这些债券被全球各地的个人和机构投资者所购买。
Whatever Argentina does present, the negotiating process for Japanese and other investors is likely to be tortuous. Argentina's is the largest ever sovereign default, involving more than 100 bonds in several currencies that were bought by retail and institutional investors around the world.

不过,上周事态出现了进展。阿根廷政府宣布了12家外国银行和三家阿根廷银行的名单,政府将让这些银行参与管理该国的债务重组计划。
However, matters did move forward last week when Argentina announced the names of 12 foreign and three Argentine banks to which it has offered a role in managing the country's debt restructuring programme.

与此同时,新生银行也在修改自己的建议,以便劝说其它日本银行加入阿根廷债券重组机构。
In the meantime, Shinsei is revising its own proposal to persuade the other Japanese banks to join Abra.

阿根廷债券重组机构的谈判小组负责人亚当&#8226;莱里克(Adam Lerrick),预计本周将访问日本,以支持新生银行的做法。莱里克表示,在国际货币基金组织(IMF)的迪拜会议上,阿根廷宣布了它的方案,自那以后,人们对阿根廷债券重组机构的兴趣增加了。
Adam Lerrick, who heads Abra's negotiating team, is expected to visit Japan this week to bolster Shinsei's case. Mr Lerrick said that interest in Abra had increased since Argentina announced its proposal at the International Monetary Fund's meeting in Dubai.

“迪拜会议以来,日本和欧洲的投资者再次提高了对阿根廷债券重组机构的兴趣。”他说。
"The interest in Abra's structure has risen again since Dubai, both in Japan and in Europe," he said.
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10 月14 日 每日英语--特里谢需要果断 Trichet must be decisive

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10 月14 日
特里谢需要果断 Trichet must be decisive


欧洲央行(ECB)是一个倍受攻击的机构。各国央行官员、经济学家及评论员总是批评它沟通不当,并且过分关注通货膨胀和货币目标,而且对欧元区经济增长过低关心不够,对突发性冲击的反应也不够迅速。这些批评中,少数正确,多数言过其实,有一些则完全错误。
The European Central Bank is a much-maligned institution. Fellow central bankers, economists and commentators have ritually attacked it for failing to communicate appropriately, being obsessed with inflation and monetary targets, not caring enough about the eurozone's low-growth economy and not being responsive enough to sudden shocks. A few of these criticisms are justified, most are exaggerated, some are downright false.

下月,让-克劳德&#8226;特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)将接任欧洲央行行长。与同时代人相比,将来的经济史学家很可能对特里谢的前任德伊森贝赫(Wim Duisenberg)评价更友善。根据货币政策的技术指标判断,欧洲央行的货币政策对欧元区这个整体而言是适当的。欧洲央行是一个货币联盟的央行,因此,批评它没有给予具体国家更多关注实在荒谬可笑。
Next month, Jean-Claude Trichet will take over as president of the ECB. Future economic historians will probably regard Wim Duisenberg, his predecessor, more kindly than his contemporaries have done. Judged by technical benchmarks for monetary policy, the ECB's monetary stance has been appropriate for the eurozone as a whole. The charge that the ECB should have paid closer attention to specific countries is an absurd one to level at the central bank of a monetary union.

不过,批评该央行反应迟缓,沟通欠佳,倒不失公允。这些方面的问题特里谢先生必须优先解决。特里谢先生目前是法国央行(Bank of France)行长。
Criticisms of the bank's lack of responsiveness and poor communication, however, are fair. These are the areas that Mr Trichet, currently governor of the Bank of France, has to tackle as a priority.

欧元区在经济上面临的最大威胁可能是美元的突然贬值。这一情况会不会出现,如果出现,那么美元下跌幅度多大,在这个问题上,欧洲几乎束手无策。人们普遍认为,美元无法维持当前的水平。一旦亚洲各国央行开始抛售美元储备,不仅美元兑亚洲货币的汇率将下跌,而且美元兑欧元的汇率也将下跌。如果美元过度贬值,欧元区的竞争力将受损,同时将增加特里谢先生刺激经济增长的压力。
The biggest economic threat to the eurozone would be a sudden devaluation of the dollar. Europe has virtually no influence over whether this happens and, if it does, how far the dollar falls. The present level of the dollar is widely judged to be unsustainable. When Asian central banks start to dump their dollar reserves, the US currency will fall not only against Asian currencies but also against the euro. If the dollar overshoots, it will undermine eurozone competitiveness and put pressure on Mr Trichet to stimulate growth.

欧元区没有汇率政策。如果它想采用一种,那么这种政策必须获得欧洲央行和各成员国财长一致认可,而这是极不可能的。让美国同意他们的这种安排更加不可能。因此,对特里谢先生和他的同事来说,货币政策将是他们应对美元快速贬值的主要工具。但特里谢先生面临的考验是,能否说服他的同事将短期利率从目前的2%削减到接近零的水平。
The eurozone does not have an exchange rate policy. If Europe wanted to adopt one, the ECB and finance ministers would have to agree on such a policy jointly. This is highly improbable. It is even less likely that they could co-opt the US into such an arrangement. So Mr Trichet and his colleagues will have monetary policy as their main tool to tackle a fast-depreciating dollar. The test will be whether Mr Trichet can persuade his colleagues to cut short-term interest rates from their present level of 2 per cent possibly to near-zero.

特里谢先生面临的另外紧要任务是,明确并始终一致地表述欧洲央行的决策。毫无疑问,要实现这个目标,需要结束目前借助于一致同意来制订政策的混乱局面。在今年年初的康斯坦茨(Konstanz)年度研讨会上,与会者不仅对欧洲央行应制订什么样的政策意见不一,而且对欧洲央行目前实行的是什么政策也持不同看法。参加这次会议的包括欧美顶级货币经济学家。1998年,欧洲央行设定了低于2%的通货膨胀率目标。后来,该行表示,通胀率目标应接近2%。接着,官员们进一步阐明立场,表示通胀率目标应接近2%、但在2%以下。不过,经过这么多解释,就连专家们也糊涂了。
The other imperative for Mr Trichet will be to communicate the ECB's decisions clearly and consistently. This will undoubtedly involve putting an end to the messy business of formulating policy by consensus. Participants in the annual Konstanz seminar earlier this year - including top European and US monetary economists - disagreed not only about what ECB policy should be but also about what it is. In 1998, the ECB set an inflation target of less than 2 per cent. More recently, the bank said the target should be close to 2 per cent. Then officials further clarified the position by saying that the target should be close to, but less than, 2 per cent. After all this clarification, even experts are confused.

欧洲央行何不直接承认通胀率目标是2%?因为它不愿表现出对通胀的态度有所软化。相反,它选择了含混不清的说法。但2%的目标与欧洲央行的决策现实是完全一致的。自欧洲央行五年前成立以来,欧元区的年均通胀率已有三次超过2%的上限。
Why not simply admit that the target is 2 per cent? Because the ECB hates to show that it has gone soft on inflation. Instead it has chosen to confuse. But a 2 per cent target is entirely consistent with the reality of the ECB's policymaking. Since the ECB was established five years ago, average annual eurozone inflation has exceeded the 2 per cent limit three times.

欧洲央行的许多问题,尤其是反应迟缓的问题,是其基于一致同意的决策方法造成的。在欧洲央行,货币政策不是通过表决决定的,而是经过长时间讨论形成的。当欧洲央行刚开始运作时,出于政治原因,一致同意可能十分重要,但现在时代变化了,问题也改变了。特里谢先生必须制订一项规则,要求任何决策均由理事会表决做出,从而确保欧洲央行在制订货币政策时确实从实际需要出发,而不是出于政治利益。
Many of the ECB's problems, in particular its sluggish response, result from its consensus-based approach. Monetary policy decisions are not voted on. Instead, they emerge after long discussion. Consensus may have been important, for political reasons, when the bank began operations but the times and the problems have changed. Mr Trichet must establish a rule that the board of governors always takes a vote, ensuring that the ECB makes monetary policy decisions when necessary, not when it is politically expedient to do so.

即使变革意味着违背理事会部分成员的意愿,特里谢先生也应该实施这些变革。否则,他会发觉自己陷于守势,而且会把时间浪费在咬文嚼字、而不是制订政策上。然而,如果他能勇敢地把变革推行下去,那么欧洲央行将很有可能成为人们心目中最成功的欧盟(EU)机构之一。
Mr Trichet should implement these changes even if it means overriding some members of the board. Otherwise, he will find himself on the defensive and will waste time dealing with semantics instead of policy. If he bites the bullet, however, there is a good chance that the ECB will come to be regarded as one of the European Union's most successful institutions.
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10 月13 日每日英语-日元升值殃及出口商利益 Rise of yen spoils party for Japan exporters

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10 月13 日
日元升值殃及出口商利益 Rise of yen spoils party for Japan exporters


日本商界和政界领袖一定在抱怨运气不好。表面上,日本经济已出现好转,股价呈上升趋势,商业信心有所改善,但恰在此时,日元却大幅升值,这似乎注定要影响日本经济复苏的步伐。
Japan's business and political leaders must be cursing their luck. Just as the economy appeared to be taking a turn for the better, with share prices trending higher and business sentiment improving, the yen's sharp appreciation looks set to spoil the party.

上周四,日元兑美元汇率升至109.52比1的近三年新高,日元升值导致日本主要出口商的股票放量下挫。
On Thursday, the yen hit Y109.52 to the dollar, its highest level in nearly three years, sending the shares of leading exporters tumbling in heavy trading.

本田(Honda)、日产(Nissan)、任天堂(Nintendo)和佳能(Canon)等收入高度依赖海外市场的公司,都在东京证券交易所(Tokyo Stock Exchange)跌幅百分比最大的8只股票之列。
Honda, Nissan, Nintendo and Canon, all of which rely significantly on overseas revenues, were among the eight heaviest losers in percentage terms on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

人们担心的问题是,日元最近升值只不过是一个新趋势的开端,这一趋势可能破坏初露端倪的日本经济复苏。
The concern is that the yen's recent appreciation is just the start of a trend that could undermine a nascent recovery.

美林(Merrill)驻东京策略师菊池正年(Masatoshi Kikuchi)表示:“我们认为,美元的下跌才刚刚开始。”
"We believe the dollar's decline has just begun," says Masatoshi Kikuchi, strategist at Merrill Lynch in Tokyo.

日元升值,特别是兑美元升值,对日本出口商造成了两方面损害——一方面降低了它们以日元计算的海外收益价值,另一方面则提高了日本生产的相对成本。
For Japanese exporters, a stronger yen, particularly against the US dollar, hurts in two ways - by lowering the yen value of their overseas earnings and raising the relative cost of their Japan-based production.

因为大多数日本出口商已假定,美元兑日元汇率在1比115和120之间,所以,如果日元继续升值,即使日本企业采取了套期保值措施,也很难避免日元升值对今年经营业绩所带来的负面影响。
Since most Japanese exporters have assumed a rate of between Y115 and Y120 to the dollar, if the yen continues to strengthen, it will be difficult to avoid a negative impact on results this year, even with hedging.

任天堂公司表示,因其美元计价资产受日元升值影响,任天堂今年上半年将出现有史以来的首次亏损。
Nintendo said it would make its first ever loss in the first half because of the impact of the yen's appreciation on its dollar assets.

索尼(Sony)70%的销售收入来自日本以外的地区,其中又有32%来自美国。索尼表示,日元兑美元汇率每升值1日元,就意味着销售收入减少300亿日元;经营利润下降50亿日元。
Sony registers 70 per cent of its sales outside Japan - and about 32 per cent in the US. It says that every Y1 rise against the US dollar translates into a Y30bn drop in sales and a Y5bn decline in operating profits.

佳能有70%的收入来自海外,公司表示,日元兑美元汇率每升值1日元,就意味着销售收入减少61亿日元;经营利润下降25亿日元。
Canon, which makes 70 per cent of its revenues overseas, says that every Y1 rise in the yen's value against the US dollar translates into a Y6.1bn drop in sales and a Y2.5bn decline in operating profits.

如果日元兑美元汇率全年升值1日元,那么丰田汽车公司(Toyota)的经营利润将减少200亿日元。
The same movement for a full year would wipe Y20bn off Toyota's bottom line.

但是,日本出口商现在对日元升值所做的准备要比以往更充分。因为就在不久前,它们的局面曾更为糟糕。
But Japanese exporters, who went through worse not too long ago, are better equipped than ever to deal with an appreciating currency.

1995年,日元兑美元汇率升至有史以来的最高点——79.9比1,而且看来还会继续上升,日元大幅升值动摇了日本出口商对其全球竞争能力的信心。
In 1995, the yen shot to an unprecedented Y79.9 to the US dollar and appeared set to rise further, shaking exporters' confidence in their ability to compete globally.

巧合的是,正是在那一年,出井伸之(Nobuyuki Idei)和御手洗富士夫(Fujio Mitarai)分别开始担任索尼和佳能的最高领导。
By coincidence, that was the year that both Nobuyuki Idei and Fujio Mitarai began their respective terms at the top of Sony and Canon.

自那以来,出井伸之和御手洗就把减少汇率波动对集团财务状况的冲击,当作头等大事来处理。
Mr Idei and Mr Mitarai have since made it a priority to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on their groups' financial performance.

和其它出口商一样,索尼和佳能也把大部分生产转移到海外,以避免汇率波动带来的影响。索尼把海外生产的比例从1995年的42%提高到了50%。富士胶卷(Fujifilm)则指出,公司在美国出售的大众摄影胶卷全部在当地生产。丰田销往北美地区的汽车中,大约60%在美国制造,相比之下,本田汽车的这一比例为75%,日产汽车的比例是65%。
Like other exporters they have done so by transferring a large part of their production overseas. Sony has raised its overseas production ratio from 42 per cent in 1995 to 50 per cent. Fujifilm notes that 100 per cent of the amateur film it sells in the US is manufactured there. Toyota produces about 60 per cent of the vehicles it sells to the North American market in the US, compared with about 75 per cent at Honda Motors and 65 per cent at Nissan Motors.

有些日本公司走得更远。随着日元上周一走强,丰田公司开始销售Avensis车,这是丰田公司第一款完全在英国生产、随后进口到日本销售的丰田车。
Some Japanese companies have gone a step further. As the yen was strengthening on Monday, Toyota started selling the Avensis - the first Toyota to be made entirely in the UK and imported for sale in Japan.

汇丰证券(HSBC Securities)的汽车分析师克里斯&#8226;里克特(Chris Richter)说,各大制造商已“采取了足够的安全措施,对远期汇率风险的套期保值措施已覆盖了全年”,以避免盈利滑坡。尽管如此,日元对美元汇率持续升值,肯定会给日本出口商带来压力,促使它们将更多的生产转移到海外。里克特说,虽然一流日本汽车制造商相对而言受到了保护,但三菱(Mitsubishi)或马自达(Mazda)等小规模制造商“出错的回旋余地就不大”。
Chris Richter, car analyst at HSBC Securities, said the major manufacturers had "built in enough safety and hedged enough forward into the year" to avoid an earnings downgrade. Nonetheless, continuing yen appreciation against the dollar is bound to put pressure on Japanese exporters to shift more production overseas. While the leading Japanese carmakers are relatively protected, smaller makers such as Mitsubishi or Mazda, have "less room for error", says Mr Richter.

尽管日本制造商的海外生产比例正在攀升,“但海外生产量和海外销售额之间仍有很大缺口,”菊池正年说。索尼公司也做出了同样让步,公司允诺本月将披露具体措施,进一步削减以日元计价的成本。许多经济学家预测说,到明年,美元兑日元将跌至100日元以下,因此,即使是全球化程度最高的日本出口商也不能无动于衷了。
Although the overseas production ratio of Japanese producers is rising, "there is still a big gap between overseas production and overseas sales", says Mr Kikuchi. Sony has conceded as much by promising to unveil measures this month to further reduce yen-based costs. With many economists predicting the yen at under Y100 to the dollar by next year, even the most global Japanese exporters cannot afford to sit still.
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10 月10 日每日英语--适当通缩有利经济

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10 月10 日
适当通缩有利经济 Moderate deflation is good for the economy


十多年来,日本的物价上涨速度一直非常缓慢。有些时候,尤其是最近几年,日本甚至处于通货紧缩的状态。因为实际国内生产总值(GDP)的增长非常疲软,包括许多美国官员在内的大量观察家,都认为是通货紧缩造成了日本的经济滞胀。而且他们猛烈抨击日本领导人没有采取更激进的措施,以便遏制通货紧缩。
For more than 10 years, the rate of price increases in Japan has been very slow. At times the country has even experienced deflation, especially in recent years. Since real gross domestic product growth has also been weak, numerous observers, including many US officials, have tied Japan's stagnation to its deflation and have chided Japan's leaders for not being more aggressive in ending deflation.




然而,通缩是日本经济中的一个亮点。实际上,日本的通缩是基于一些充分的理由而有意造成的,而且它并未成为经济快速增长的障碍。对政策制订者来说,了解日本的通缩问题至关重要,尤其是现在,美国可能很快就要面对通货紧缩这个问题了。
But Japan's deflation has been a bright spot. It was intentionally brought about for sound reasons and has not been an obstacle to faster growth. It is vital that policymakers understand Japan's deflation, especially given recent concern that the US may also soon face deflation.




日本的通货膨胀率在1987年时为0.1%,到1991年上升到3.2%。1989年,政策制订者对此表示担忧,并且收缩银根。结果,通货膨胀率慢慢下降,到1995年已经下降到零。在这段时间,日本央行(Bank of Japan)的官员经常重申,他们的目标就是把服务业价格的增长速度降低到零。这就要求商品和资产的价格必须有所下降。总而言之,这就是一剂通缩的药方。
Japanese inflation rose from 0.1 per cent in 1987 to about 3.2 per cent in 1991. By 1989 policymakers had become concerned and tightened monetary policy. As a result, inflation fell slowly, reaching zero in 1995. Over this period, Bank of Japan officials consistently argued that their goal was to reduce the pace of service price increases to zero, which would require a fall in the prices of goods and assets. Overall, this was a prescription for deflation.




日本政策的依据是米尔顿&#8226;弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)1969年在《最优货币数量及其他文集》(Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays)中的分析。他提出,最优货币政策应该是在保持工资和服务业价格稳定的基础上,允许商品和服务的总体价格水平的增速下降到与实际利率相当的水平。
Japan's policy followed Milton Friedman's analysis, set out in his 1969 work Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays. He showed that optimal policy would stabilise wages and service prices, allowing the overall prices of goods and services to fall at a rate equal to the real rate of interest.




即使这样,一些美国分析人士仍然争论说,日本几十年来的低增长是因为采取通缩政策的缘故。但是在1998年之前,日本并没有经历持续的通缩。事实上,自从1991年以来,伴随着经济衰退,日本的实际国民生产总值的平均增长幅度为1.1%,这并不是因为通货紧缩造成的。同时在1991-1998年期间,通货膨胀率从0.9%下降到了1998-2002年期间的负0.7%的水平,与此同时实际GDP增长也稍稍放缓了速度,从1.2%下降到0.9%。
Even so, some US analysts have argued that Japan's decade of slow growth was a result of these deflationary policies. But Japan did not achieve sustained deflation until 1998. The fact that Japan's real gross domestic product has risen at an average rate of only 1.1 per cent since 1991, interspersed with recessions, was not due to deflation. While inflation slowed from 0.9 per cent in 1991-98 to minus 0.7 per cent in 1998-2002, real GDP growth slowed little, declining from 1.2 to 0.9 per cent.




日本的产出增长疲软是一个结构性问题。经济合作和发展组织(OECD,Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)的数据表明,如果在2002年,日本的生产潜力得到发挥,那么实质GDP的增长率也只会比2002年日本实现的增长率高2.9%,那么从1991年以来,日本产出率平均增长率为每年1.3%,而不是实际上的1.1%。即使没有经济周期所带来的低迷,日本的经济增长也会相当缓慢。
The problem of weak output growth in Japan is structural. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data show that if Japan had achieved its potential output in 2002, real GDP would have been only about 2.9 per cent higher than it was; output growth would have averaged 1.3 per cent a year since 1991 instead of the actual 1.1 per cent rate. Even without cyclical weakness, Japan's growth would have been extremely slow.




最近日本货币供应量爆炸性地增加,刺激了产出的增长,同时也结束了通货紧缩。通货紧缩从2001年底的1%降低到2002年底的0.5%,而且当年7月底通缩下降到只有0.2%。
While explosive monetary growth has boosted output growth recently, it is also bringing deflation to an end. Deflation has slowed from 1 per cent at the end of 2001 to 0.5 per cent at the end of 2002 and was only 0.2 per cent in the year ending in July.




遗憾的是,目前产出的增加是因为周期性的因素,并不会改变经济滞胀的长期趋势。OECD估计,潜在产出增长将会继续下降。
Unfortunately, the current cyclical improvement in output will not reverse long-term stagnation. The OECD estimates that potential output growth will continue to decline.




对通缩另一个错误的认识是,通缩损害了金融业。一些分析人士争论说,通缩是银行资产平衡表恶化的罪魁祸首。在某种程度上,他们是正确的,因为监管当局没有及时让一些无偿还能力的金融机构停业清盘,这是他们疏忽。资产状况良好的金融机构是净债权人。非预期的通缩,是收入和财富再分配的一种方式,对净债权人而言是有利的,如同非预期的通胀牺牲债权人的利益而有益于债务人一样。
Another misconception about deflation is that it has damaged the financial sector. Some analysts have argued that deflation was the cause of the deterioration in banks' balance sheets. To the extent that they are correct, it is because regulators were negligent in not closing failed institutions in a timely fashion. Well capitalised financial institutions are net creditors. Unforeseen deflation, the kind that redistributes income and wealth, benefits net creditors in the same way that unforeseen inflation benefits debtors at the expense of creditors.




如果价格变化的速度的确对银行造成了损害,这种损害发生在诸如美国的储蓄和贷款危机那样的情况下。首先,非预期的通货膨胀有可能吞噬了银行的一些资产,其次通货膨胀在没有预期的情况下减缓,会进一步损害净资产为负值的人们的利益,事实上就是那些净债务人的利益。对于那些已经被经济不景气造成的违约所伤害的金融机构来说,这种力量可能会进一步降低它们的净资产。
If the pace of price change did damage banks, it is likely that it did so in a scenario reminiscent of the US savings and loan crisis. First, unforeseen inflation would have wiped out some banks' capital; then an unforeseen slowing in inflation would have further hurt those with negative net worth - in effect, net debtors. The latter force might also further decrease the net worth of institutions that had already been put under water by defaults arising from an underperforming economy.




从本质上来看,通缩对金融业有利。因为它在不为人觉察的情况下,使收入发生有益于债权人的再分配。同时相对于收入和其他资产而言,银行存款更具有吸引力,因为货币的购买力增加,存款人通过持有现金可获得正实质收益。而通货膨胀在没有预期的情况下放缓,其所产生的周期性消极影响,可能会增加贷款违约数量,从而对银行资产造成损害。但是只要银行仍然有足够的资本金,并且维持净债权人的地位,通货紧缩本身的作用将会抵消这类成本。
Deflation per se benefits financial businesses. It redistributes income to net creditors when it is unforeseen; and it boosts bank deposits relative to income and other assets because positive real returns accrue to depositors from holding money whose purchasing power increases. Any adverse cyclical developments that arise from an unforeseen slowing in inflation could increase the number of defaults on loans and damage banks' capital. But the deflation itself will work to offset those costs, as long as banks remain capitalised and net creditors.




美国的政策制订者认为,通缩会让我们付出巨大代价,因此必须采取额外的努力来避免通缩。日本货币政策的经验或者货币理论并不支持这一说法。适度的通缩对经济有利——尤其是对金融机构有利。即使把通货膨胀作为目标的政策制订者,也应该从广义上来理解价格稳定,将弗里德曼的思想和日本央行的经验囊括其中。

作者在芝加哥德保尔大学(DePaul University)讲授经济学,曾任圣路易斯联储银行的研究部官员。
US policymakers suggest that deflation would be costly and that extraordinary efforts must be made to avoid it. This conclusion is not supported by Japan's policy experience or by monetary theory. Moderate deflation is good for the economy - and especially for financial institutions. Even inflation- targeting policymakers should broaden their notion of price stability to encompass that derived by Friedman and implemented by the BoJ.

The writer teaches economics at DePaul University, Chicago, and is a former research official at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
10 月01 日 每日英语从新开张千万不要提债务 Just don't mention the debts

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10 月01 日
千万不要提债务 Just don't mention the debts


“采访到此结束,”戴维&#8226;贝尔(David Bell)一边说,一边生气地从沙发上站起来,大步穿过酒店大堂,向酒吧走去。他完全不听解释。采访过早地结束了。贝尔先生是营销服务集团公司Interpublic Group(IPG)的董事长兼首席执行官。
It's over," declares David Bell, rising angrily from the sofa and striding across the hotel lobby in the direction of the bar. Mr Bell, chairman and chief executive of Interpublic Group, the marketing services conglomerate, is not to be placated. The interview has come to a premature end.

这是为什么呢?贝尔先生的公司旗下,除了拥有全球最领先的公关顾问公司之一万博宣伟(Weber Shandwick)外,还包括麦肯(McCann-Erickson)、灵狮(Lowe)和FCB等广告公司品牌。是什么使这样一个公司的领导者,在与媒体打交道时,表现得如此专横呢?
Why? What could persuade a man heading a company that, in addition to advertising agency brands such as McCann-Erickson, Lowe and FCB, owns Weber Shandwick, one of the world's foremost PR consultancies, to behave in such a peremptory manner when dealing with the media?

答案是:这家美国上市公司的债务庞大。当媒体就IPG提问时,答案通常如此。截至今年6月30日,IPG的债务达27亿美元。虽然这低于去年同期的大约30亿美元债务,但削减原因主要是把市场调查集团NFO以4.3亿美元卖给了Taylor Nelson Sofres(TNS)。收入中的1.425亿美元被用于偿还了利息最高的几笔贷款。
The answer, as is so often the case when questions are raised about Interpublic, is the US-listed corporation's pile of debt. At June 30 this year, Interpublic's debt stood at $2.7bn. While this was down from about $3bn the previous year, that reduction was achieved largely through the $430m disposal of market research group NFO to Taylor Nelson Sofres. Of the proceeds, $142.5m was channelled into repaying the loans with the highest interest rates.

当我对贝尔先生说,这些债务问题一定会挫伤客户的信心,公司就一定要处置更多资产时,他中断了对话。他知道IPG需要强化资产负债表,尽管他不愿意与我讨论这个问题。但这决不是唯一的挑战。
When it is put to Mr Bell that these debt issues must surely be undermining client confidence and that future disposals must be in the offing, he cuts our dialogue short. He knows Interpublic's balance sheet needs strengthening - even if he is unwilling to discuss it with me. But it is by no means the only challenge.

IPG第二季度的业绩报告显示,营业收入较去年同期增加0.6%,达到15亿美元,但营运利润率从14.3%下降至9.8%。该季度的净亏损为1350万美元。美林公司(Merrill Lynch)在其简报中,称新业务的规模“令人失望”。IPG的新业务净值从8.74亿美元下降至3.19亿美元。同一季度,IPG支付了6600万美元的离职金,关闭了30处设施,裁减了1450名员工。据美林称,主要是在欧洲裁员。
Second-quarter results saw revenues rise 0.6 per cent from the previous year to $1.5bn but operating margins were down to 9.8 per cent from 14.3 per cent. Net loss for the quarter was $13.5m. In its briefing note on the figures, Merrill Lynch described the level of new business - at a net $319m, down from $874m - as "disappointing". In the same quarter Interpublic spent $66m on severance pay, closing 30 facilities and cutting its workforce by 1,450. According to Merrill Lynch, the majority of the redundancies were in Europe.

贝尔先生曾公开表示,评论界常常用“困难重重”、“四面受敌”等词来形容IPG,他希望摆脱这些形容词。但很明显,要扭转形势还有相当一段路要走。
Mr Bell has gone on record as saying he wants to shed the "embattled" and "beleaguered" epithets that are so often applied by commentators to Interpublic. Yet clearly there is a considerable way to go in turning things around.

Numis Securities的分析师保罗&#8226;理查兹(Paul Richards)说:“由于上世纪90年代末过度扩张,最近几年它(IPG)麻烦重重。过去你会说,业内的老前辈是IPG和安历琴(Omnicom)。”
Paul Richards, an analyst at Numis Securities, says: "It [Interpublic] has been pretty troubled in the last couple of years due to over-expansion in the late 1990s. It used to be that you'd say the doyens in the sector were Interpublic and Omnicom.

“而现在你会说,老前辈是安历琴和WPP。IPG的重要地位已有所丧失。”
"Now you'd say the doyens are Omnicom and WPP. Some of the greatness has been lost."

我是上周在塞维利亚对贝尔先生进行了这次提前结束的采访。此前,贝尔先生在第四届全球营销传播大会(Global Marketing Communications Conference)上发表了讲话。参加大会的有安历琴和WPP的高层人士,以及来自联合利华(Unilever)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)等广告商的高级营销代表。
Our truncated meeting took place in Seville last week, after Mr Bell had spoken at the fourth Global Marketing Communications Conference. The event was attended by senior figures from WPP and Omnicom, as well as high-ranking marketing representatives from advertisers such as Unilever and Deutsche Bank.

贝尔先生参加大会的目的,是为了深入传递这样一个信息,即IPG正努力改变自身,而这些改变将推动客户价值增加,加快成长。替贝尔先生说句公道话,他不愿把IPG最近面临的问题归咎于两年前发生的“9.11”恐怖袭击事件。
Mr Bell's aim in taking part was to hammer home the message that Interpublic is trying to engineer change for itself in a manner that will drive value and growth for clients. In fairness to Mr Bell, he was unwilling to blame the recent problems faced by Interpublic on the September 11 terrorist attacks of two years ago.

“虽然恐怖袭击提供了一个方便的‘借口’,可以用来解释营销传播业半个世纪以来遭受的最严重的衰退,但我们问题的根源早就形成了,”他说,“这些问题也基本上是我们自己造成的。主要是因为我们行业在领导变革方面表现极差,甚至在追随变革方面也表现得很差。我们是平庸的“被动反应者”,拙劣的‘积极行动者’。”
"While the terrorist attacks provide an easy ' hook ' - a simple explanation for the worst recession to have hit marketing communications in half a century - the seeds of our problems have been long in the making," he said. "They have also been largely of our own making. Largely because our industry stinks at leading change and does poorly even at following change. We're so-so 'reactors' and lousy 'pro-actors'."

贝尔先生认为,整个市场营销服务业一直不敢在客户面前维持自己的主见。
In Mr Bell's view, the entire marketing services industry has been too afraid to assert itself with clients.

因此,该行业逐渐放弃了“我们理应获取的、越来越多的报酬”。结果便是:尽管广告公司为客户取得了许多业务目标,但客户对此所给予的尊重却减少了。
As a result, it has gradually given away "more and more of the compensation we deserved". Consequently, clients have come to have less respect for what advertising agency groups achieve for their businesses.

如何才能扭转这种局面呢?贝尔先生表示,薪酬结构已从佣金制转变为固定费用制。虽然固定费用制一度非常流行,但有必要用另一种模式加以取代,以反映广告公司对客户的业务所产生的积极影响。
What can be done to reverse this? Mr Bell argues that the fixed-fee remuneration structure that is so popular following the shift from the commission system needs to be replaced with a model to reflect the positive impact agencies can make on a client's business.

如何量化投资回报率相对于市场营销支出的高低,历来是个棘手的问题。然而,贝尔先生坚信,这是未来的发展方向。他以下面两例来说明这一点。最近,三菱(Mitsubishi)和富士重工的Subaru汽车在美国取得了良好业绩。为满足不断高涨的需求,两家公司的轿车产量飙升。而电信公司Verizon的用户数量第二季增长15%。广告公司策划的广告和市场营销活动,直接促成了上述公司取得良好业绩。
Quantifying return on investment in relation to marketing spend has always been a thorny issue. Nevertheless, Mr Bell is adamant that this is the way forward, citing the strong recent performance in the US of Mitsubishi and Subaru - where car production has leapt to cater for an upsurge in demand - and a 15 per cent second-quarter rise in subscribers for telecommunications company Verizon, as being directly due to advertising and marketing campaigns devised by their agencies.

“Verizon、Subaru和三菱都是了不起的、信奉公平合理的客户,”贝尔先生表示,“问题不在于它们,而在于我们。”
"Verizon, Subaru and Mitsubishi are great client partners who believe in fairness," says Mr Bell. "They aren't the problem. We are."

问题在于,IPG及其竞争对手(因为这是整个行业都存在的问题)是否敢于向客户强调,应该以商业结果而不仅仅是自己制作的广告作品来给予报酬。
It is a question of whether Interpublic - and its rivals, for this is an industry-wide problem - are brave enough to insist to clients that they be rewarded on commercial results rather than on output alone.

贝尔先生为IPG发现了一些业务增长机会,其中包括后来被称作“纽约麦迪逊大街加好莱坞葡萄藤街”(Madison and Vine)的业务模式,即市场营销与娱乐(包括体育)的融合。尽管该集团的Octagon MotorSports分公司公布了1100万美元的资产减值费,拖累公司第二季的业绩,出现经营亏损2100万美元,但该集团仍实现了市场营销与娱乐的融合。
Among the business growth opportunities that Mr Bell has identified for Interpublic are what has come to be known as "Madison and Vine" - the confluence of marketing and entertainment, including sport. This comes in spite of the group reporting an $11m impairment charge at its Octagon MotorSports division, which helped drag the division to a second-quarter $21m operating loss.

电视节目《挨家挨户》(Door to Door)获得了六项艾美奖(Emmy),贝尔先生十分欣喜。这是IPG为客户强生公司(Johnson & Johnson)制作的。另外,他很高兴地承认,这是一种“回到未来”的方法。这种方法仿效40至50年前美国的原创性肥皂剧,只不过带了一点21世纪的味道。“肥皂剧”这种说法便源自为之提供赞助的洗涤剂品牌。
Mr Bell is delighted with the six Emmy awards garnered by Door to Door, a television show developed on behalf of its client Johnson & Johnson. He is also happy to concede that this is a "back to the future" approach, echoing the original US soap operas of 40-50 years ago that took their description from the detergent brands that sponsored them - albeit with a 21st-century twist.

“我们在回归过去,”贝尔先生表示,“但是,我们也在学习如何利用更集中和更广泛的全球资源,而利用方式令人回想起20世纪50年代和60年代的方式。”
"We're going back to those things," says Mr Bell, "but we're learning how to use more concentrated, broader global resources in ways that are reminiscent of how we did it in the 1950s and 1960s."

尽管贝尔先生对未来怀抱乐观的态度,但过去的问题依旧困扰着IPG,这仍使他非常恼怒。
Although Mr Bell is upbeat about the future, he remains exasperated that past issues continue to haunt Interpublic.

2002年10月份,该集团下属的麦肯广告公司暴露出财务违规问题。集团不得不把利润数据下调后重新予以公布,引发美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对其展开正式调查。自那以后,该集团一直未摆脱这一问题的困扰。
The group is dogged by financial irregularities at advertising agency McCann-Erickson that emerged in October 2002. Earnings had to be restated downwards, triggering a formal investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

贝尔先生当时尚未执掌帅印,他是今年2月份升迁至现职的。虽然他匆匆结束了《金融时报》对他的采访,但前任约翰&#8226;杜纳(John Dooner)遗留的问题似乎无法这样迅速地获得解决。
Mr Bell was not at the helm then, ascending to his current job in February this year. However, the problems he has inherited from predecessor John Dooner, who remains a senior executive after standing down from the top job, cannot, it seems, be brought to as swift a conclusion as an interview with the Financial Times.
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09 月30 日每日英语---华尔街站上被告席 Wall St in the dock

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09 月30 日
华尔街站上被告席 Wall St in the dock


一年多前,布什(George W. Bush)总统呼吁打击企业犯罪,以根除高级管理人员的不当行为,恢复投资者对市场的信心。
More than a year ago, President George W. Bush called for a crackdown on corporate crime to root out executive wrongdoing and restore investor confidence in the markets.

两起备受瞩目的刑事案件昨天在曼哈顿开庭审理。审判可能非常有助于公众评判政府这一行动的成效。
Two high-profile criminal trials beginning today in Manhattan may go a long way towards determining the public perception of the administration's success.

尽管美国企业界丑闻所带来的震动已逐渐减退,但检察官需要用重大胜利来证明:企业犯罪得不偿失。现在,检察官的机会来了:这两宗案件的被告分别是丹尼斯&#8226;科兹洛夫斯基(Dennis Kozlowski)和弗兰克&#8226;奎特隆(Frank Quattrone),前者是工业集团泰科(Tyco International)的前首席执行官,后者则是瑞士信贷第一波士顿(CSFB)旗下科技投资银行集团的前总裁,该集团一贯自命不凡。在科兹洛夫斯基一案中,首席执行官将被推上审判台,这是继安然(Enron)事件后美国企业界的又一重要时刻。
Although some of the shock of US corporate scandals has worn off, prosecutors need for some big wins to prove that corporate crime does not pay. The cases against Dennis Kozlowski, the former head of Tyco International, and Frank Quattrone, former head of Credit Suisse First Boston's vaunted technology investment banking group, provide them with that opportunity. In Mr Kozlowski's case, it's to put a chief executive in front of a jury, an important moment in corporate America after Enron.

纽约证券业律师迈克尔&#8226;巴克纳(Michael Bachner)表示:“为向公众传达一个讯息,纽约法庭处于将被告定罪的强大压力之下。”
"For purposes of sending a message out to the public, there is a lot of pressure here to get convictions," said Michael Bachner, a securities lawyer in New York.

科兹洛夫斯基将在纽约州法庭受审。他与前首席财务官马克&#8226;舒瓦茨(Mark Swartz)被控从事企业贪污活动,通过未经授权的薪酬和非法股票交易,从泰科偷窃或诈骗了6亿美元。
Mr Kozlowski will face charges in New York state court that he and a former finance executive, Mark Swartz, engaged in enterprise corruption to steal or fraudently obtain $600m from the industrial conglomerate through unauthorised compensation and illegal stock trades.

与此同时,奎特隆先生的案件将在同一街区开庭审理,预计奎特隆届时将出庭。奎特隆被控妨碍司法公正,原因是当他获知美国证交会(SEC)正在对他管理的银行展开调查时,他命令下属销毁以往的电子邮件。
At the same time, and in the same neighborhood, Mr Quattrone is expected to appear in court for the opening of his trial. He has been accused of obstructing justice by ordering underlings to destroy old emails at a time when he knew the bank was under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

事实上,两人均否认上述指控。毫无疑问,科兹洛夫斯基和奎特隆属于上世纪90年代末华尔街最著名的高级管理人员。然而,无论适当与否,他们也已成为那一年代管理人员行为失控的代表。
Indeed, the two men, who have denied the charges against them, were among the most recognisable executives on Wall Street in the late 1990s, and - rightly or not - have become archetypes of the executive excess that characterised the era.

科兹洛夫斯基先生利用并购热潮,将大量缺乏吸引力的公司联合,组成美国最大的工业集团之一。这些公司从火警报警器生产商到专业阀门生产商不一。在此过程中,他挥霍无度的生活方式已成为公司不法行为的标志。据说,他将公司资金滥用于各种私人用途。例如,他耗费200万美元在撒丁岛为妻子开办生日宴会,花6000美元购买一张浴帘,还购买印象主义油画装饰他使用的公司公寓。
Mr Kozlowski used the mergers and acquisitions boom to string together a number of unglamorous companies - from fire alarm to specialty valve makers - into one of the biggest US industrial conglomerates. In the process, his lavish lifestyle has become a symbol for corporate malfeasance, allegedly spending company funds on everything from a $2m Sardinian birthday party for his wife, a $6,000 shower curtain, to Impressionist paintings for his company apartment.

在此期间,奎特隆先生则负责向亚马逊(Amazon.com)和Razorfish等有代表性的互联网公司提供证券承销服务。据政府部门透露,在1998至2001年间,奎特隆赚取了2亿多美元。他是继10年前的“垃圾债券大王”迈克尔&#8226;米尔肯(Michael Milken)后,受到审判的最著名的华尔街银行家。
Meanwhile, Mr Quattrone, who earned more than $200m from 1998 to 2001, according to the government, was responsible for underwriting such internet icons as Amazon.com and Razorfish. He is the most prominent Wall Street banker to go on trial since Michael Milken, the junk bond king, faced prosecutors a decade ago.

在当前的一系列白领犯罪案件中,美国政府迄今为止的表现一直各不相同。司法部拘捕了世通(WorldCom)及安然等公司的多名高级管理人员,但因未对这些公司的最高管理人员提出指控而遭到严厉批评。这些最高管理人员包括伯尼&#8226;埃伯斯(Bernie Ebbers)、肯&#8226;雷(Ken Lay)和杰夫&#8226;斯基林(Jeff Skilling)等。
The government's record so far in the current crop of white collar crime cases is mixed. The Justice Department has rounded up scores of executives from WorldCom and Enron, among others. But it has taken heavy criticism for failing to bring charges against the most senior executives at those companies, including Bernie Ebbers, Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling.

在控辩双方势均力敌的情况下,有一个因素可能会使陪审团偏向起诉方,即公众对华尔街和美国企业界的强烈反感情绪。
One factor that could tip the jury in the prosecution's favour in a close case is the harsh public sentiment against Wall Street and corporate America.

对被告而言,所幸的是,两场审判的辩方律师都非常有名。奎特隆先生的律师约翰&#8226;科克尔(John Keker)是美国最受人尊敬的辩护律师之一,科兹洛夫斯基先生则仰仗曾为米尔肯先生辩护的史蒂芬&#8226;考夫曼(Stephen Kaufman)。而查尔斯&#8226;斯蒂尔曼(Charles Stillman)将代表舒瓦茨先生出庭辩护。预计在科兹洛夫斯基先生一案中,辩护律师的一部分工作是:试图说明科兹洛夫斯基和舒瓦茨未曾试图隐瞒薪酬。理由是泰科的审计事务所知道薪酬计划,并在薪金计划上签了字,因此这是公司管理问题,而不是诈骗问题。
Fortunately for the defendants, the trials will also feature renowned lawyers for the defense. Mr Quattrone is represented by John Keker, one of the best-regarded US defence lawyers, while Mr Kozlowski counts on Stephen Kaufman, who defended Mr Milken. Charles Stillman will represent Mr Swartz. One part of Mr Kozlowski's defense is expected to try to show that he and Mr Swartz did not try to hide their compensation. The argument is that Tyco's auditors were aware and signed off on the packages; making it an issue of governance not racketeering.

辩方还将试图封存科兹洛夫斯基夫人的撒丁岛生日聚会录像带,以防止其外传,并对潜在陪审员产生影响。那次生日宴会现已臭名昭著。在宴会上,冰雕的米开朗基罗大卫像把伏特加酒“尿”到酒杯里。由杰拉德&#8226;墨菲(Gerard Murphy)为首的五人检察团,将利用泰科高管的挥霍无度和内部贷款计划,来支持他们的起诉。
The defense also seeks to have videotapes sealed of a now notorious Sardinian birthday for Mr Kozlowski's wife so they can not get out and taint potential jurors. The party featured an ice-sculptured Michaelangelo's David, urinating vodka into glasses. A team of five prosecutors, led by Gerard Murphy, will try to use to their advantage the Tyco executives' lavish spending and internal loan programmes.

而对一些人来说,奎特隆先生则是上世纪90年代非理性繁荣时期过度行为的代表。
Mr Quattrone, for some, embodies the excesses of the irrational exuberance of the 1990s.

他面临的犯罪指控与股市泡沫时期涌现的问题无关,而与玛莎&#8226;斯图尔特(Martha Stewart)案类似。他被指控妨碍调查人员为涉嫌金融犯罪取证。如此定罪可能无法令受损的投资者们满意。
But the crimes Mr Quattrone is accused of committing do not address the problems that erupted during the stock market bubble. Rather, as in the charges levelled at Martha Stewart, he is accused of obstructing investigators from obtaining proof of possible financial crimes. A conviction may not satisfy aggrieved investors.

一些辩护律师曾说,奎特隆先生有机会逃避刑事责任,因为起诉方的证据主要是一封电子邮件,而不是一系列行为。一般而言,比较容易依据行为确定被告是否为故意犯罪,而不仅仅是判断有误。
Some defense lawyers have said he has a chance to beat the rap, because the prosecution's case centres on an email rather than a series of actions that could more easily establish criminal intent and not just bad judgement.

此案的陪审员在开庭当天被挑选出来,他们将承担比一般案件更多的责任。他们要决定的,不仅仅是两个人的命运,还有政府打击企业犯罪的成效。
For the jury members who will be picked out from today the responsibility will be even greater than usual. They will decide the fate not just of two individuals but of the administration's campaign against corporate crime.

乔舒亚&#8226;查芬(Joshua Chaffin)、克里斯托弗&#8226;鲍(Christopher Bowe)和戴维&#8226;威尔斯(David Wells)联合报道
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
09 月29 日 每日英语--以人为本 公司盈利 People first brings profit

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09 月29 日
以人为本 公司盈利 People first brings profit


近年来,在激励员工方面做得最糟糕的非Cerner软件公司首席执行官尼尔&#8226;帕特森(Neal Patterson)莫属。
The award for the most dismal attempt at employee motivation in recent years must go to Neal Patterson, chief executive of Cerner Software.

他的一封题为“好好干,不然就要作出改变”的电子邮件一不小心在互联网上激起了巨大反响。在信中,他告诉经理们,他打算在位于堪萨斯州的公司总部安装自动打卡机,工作时间内关闭健身房,裁员5%,暂停一切员工升迁,以此来提高生产率。
In an e-mail entitled "Fix it or changes will be made" - which found instant, unintended fame on internet bulletin boards - he told managers that he planned to increase productivity at the company's Kansas City headquarters by introducing a "clocking on/clocking off" procedure, closing the gym during working hours, cutting 5 per cent of the workforce and suspending all promotions.

“我衡量的标准将是停车场:上午7点30分和下午6点30分时,停车场应该是很满的,”他写道:“我会让你们对这件事负责,是你们让事情变成这样的。你们有两周时间。行动吧。”
"My measurement will be the parking lot: it should be substantially full at 7.30am and 6.30pm," he wrote. "I will hold you accountable. You have allowed this to get into this state. You have two weeks. Tick tock."

你不需要十分精通组织心理学,就能发现这样的策略不太可能成功。正如已故的弗雷德里克&#8226;赫茨伯格(Frederick Herzberg) 在 1968年发表于《哈佛商业评论》上的经典著作所阐述的那样,这种“踢他一脚”的(KITA) 管理方式可能会在短期内推动员工“前进”,但不会产生可持续发展所需要的激励作用。
You do not need to be well versed in organisational psychology to see that such tactics are unlikely to succeed. As the late Frederick Herzberg argued in his classic 1968 Harvard Business Review article, this kind of kick-in-the-ass (KITA) management may produce "movement" in the short term but it will not result in the motivation required for sustained results.

但是,许多公司采取的方式虽然没有那么极端,却也比较相似。在诸如www.internalmemos.com等网站上,冷漠无情、鼠目寸光和缺乏考虑的管理案例比比皆是。经济的低迷让事情变得更糟:处理不当的裁员,过分的施压,员工反馈和激励措施的减少。
Yet many companies behave in a similar - albeit less extreme - fashion. Internet sites such as www.internalmemos.com are chock full of examples of callous, small-minded and thoughtless management. The economic downturn has made matters worse: clumsily handled dismissals, intense pressure to perform, less feedback, fewer incentives.

不奇怪吗?好吧,40年来,一批又一批管理专业的学生收集的数据显示,善待员工能够提高生产率,增加利润和提升股价。
Not surprising? Well, students of management have for 40 years been collecting data to show that treating people well leads to improved productivity, profits and stock market value.

“大约有100项调查显示,如果你善待员工,生产率和利润都能比对手高出30%至40%,”斯坦福商学院组织行为学教授杰弗里&#8226;普赛弗(Jeffrey Pfeffer)说。
"There are probably 100 studies out there showing that you get a 30 to 40 per cent productivity and profit advantage by treating people in the right way," says Jeffrey Pfeffer, professor of organisational behaviour at Stanford business school.

在上述调查中,最具说服力的是90年代由布赖恩&#8226;贝克 (Brian Becker)和马克&#8226;哈思理德(Mark Huselid) 针对美国 上市公司进行的大型调查。该调查显示,“高效率的工作方式”与增加股东价值密切相关。
Among the most convincing are those carried out in the 1990s by Brian Becker and Mark Huselid. Their large-scale surveys of US public companies found a strong correlation between "high-performance work practices" and improved shareholder value.

他们的最佳做法清单中包括激励计划,定期绩效评估,大量培训,以及基于业绩而非资历的职位晋升制度。事实证明,全面推行这类方法的公司表现要远远胜过那些只推行少数几种做法的公司。也就是说,一些公司已经找到了将有效的人员管理变成一种竞争优势的途径。
Their list of best practices included incentive plans, regular performance appraisals, extensive training and promotion based on merit rather than seniority. Companies that implemented a broad array of such practices appeared substantially to outperform those that used only a few. The implication was that some companies had found a way to turn effective people management into a competitive advantage.

这些调查结果对于普赛弗教授来说毫不意外。在他1994年发表的《通过人才实现竞争优势》(Competitive Advantage Through People)一书中,他提出,许多传统的竞争优势来源(例如:市场份额,专利技术,资本渠道,市场管制)所起的作用正变得越来越小。他警告说:“由于其它的竞争优势来源已经变得越来越不重要,因此现在最重要的区别就在于组织机构,员工和他们的工作方式。”
These results came as no surprise to Prof Pfeffer. In Competitive Advantage Through People, published in 1994, he argued that many traditional sources of competitive advantage - market share, proprietary technology, access to capital, regulated markets - were becoming less powerful. He warned: "As other sources of competitive success have become less important, what remains as a crucial differentiating factor is the organisation, its employees and how they work."

不只普赛弗教授一个人做出这样的结论。90年代涌现出的“组织的学习”和“知识管理”两大管理狂潮也是基于这种理念,即技能、经验和适应能力等无形资产已成为最重要的竞争优势来源。
Prof Pfeffer was not alone in making this observation. The "organisational learning" and "knowledge management" movements, two of the biggest management fads of the 1990s, were also based on the notion that intangible assets such as skills, experience and the ability to adapt were becoming the overriding sources of competitive advantage.

既然有那么多令人信服的证据,那公司为什么还要继续对员工采取那种不但令个人痛苦而且会损害公司长期业绩的做法呢?
With such convincing evidence on hand, why do companies continue to treat people in ways that are not only painful for individuals but also damaging to their own long-term performance?

“最根本的原因在于他们没有改变思维模式,”普赛弗 教授说:“如果你找错了地方,你就找不到成功之道。”
"The fundamental reason is that people have not changed their mindset," says Prof Pfeffer. "If you look for success in the wrong places you will not find it."

这样看来,经理们因为整天忙于兼并收购、裁员和战略制定,却未能发现妥善管理人力资本能使公司获得更长久的回报。
On this view, the obsession of managers with mergers and acquisitions, downsizing and strategy prevents them from seeing the more sustainable gains from managing human capital.

这应归咎于商学院对现代经理人的误导吗?普赛弗教授表示:“以前,我会责怪商学院,责怪商业杂志记者。在很大程度上,是他们引导公众对著名CEO顶礼膜拜,也是他们让大家以为这些权宜之计能够取得成功。”
Is this the fault of business schools for mis-educating modern managers? Says Prof Pfeffer: "Before I would blame business schools I would blame business journalists. They contributed mightily to the cult of celebrity CEOs and the idea that you can achieve success through these quick fixes."

幸运的是,我们仍能找到那些真正把员工当作最重要资产的公司,他们没有把这个想法仅仅停留在口头上。
Fortunately, it is still possible to find companies that pay more than lip-service to the idea that people are their most important asset.

去年,总部位于加州的微芯片制造商Xilinx在开始实施降薪计划前曾与员工进行沟通,而不是强制执行裁员计划。但最大的私人软件公司赛仕软件研究所 (SAS Institute) 在经济低迷时仍继续雇佣新员工,因为他们认为其它公司的裁员是他们招聘优秀人才千载难逢的良机。
Xilinx, a California-based maker of microchips, last year consulted employees before instituting a pay cut across the board rather than make forced redundancies. SAS Institute, the largest privately held software company, has continued to hire through the downturn on the grounds that dismissals at other companies represent a once-in-a-cycle opportunity to recruit good people.

IT行业跌入有史以来的最低谷,这两家IT公司也无法幸免于难。但是,尽管这两个公司有许多相似之处,但在许多重要方面,管理模式存在很大的不同。
Both companies operate in the information technology sector, which has been through the deepest trough in memory. But while the companies have a lot in common, their management methods differ in important respects.

赛仕软件研究所为员工提供公司幼儿园服务,卫生保健服务,并推出了一个“老年护理”计划,旨在帮助员工减轻照顾年老家属的负担。“我们如何对待员工也反映出我们如何对待客户。我们的客户稳定率为98%,员工流动率为4%。这些都是长期关系,”人力资源部副总裁杰夫&#8226;钱伯斯( Jeff Chambers)表示。
SAS Institute provides staff with on-site childcare, healthcare and an "elder care" programme to help employees deal with the burden of elderly relatives. "How we treat employees is a mirror image of how we treat customers. We have a customer retention rate of 98 per cent and an employee turnover rate of about 4 per cent. It is all about long-term relationships," says Jeff Chambers, vice-president for human resources.

Xilinx在这类福利方面做得比较少,更多的是致力于营造一种开放、信任和〔就硅谷的标准而言〕平等的文化氛围。
Xilinx offers fewer such benefits and concentrates instead on creating a culture of openness, trust and, by Silicon Valley standards, egalitarianism.

加州马歇尔商学院组织行为学资深教授埃德&#8226;劳勒(Ed Lawler) 认为,这一反差说明,人力资本市场发生着重要 的变化。在他的新书《善待员工》中,劳勒博士写道,象解除管制,全球化和激烈的竞争等经济因素正在让人力资本变得更为重要,也同时改变着公司和员工之间隐性的契约关系。
Ed Lawler, veteran professor of organisational behaviour at the University of California's Marshall School of Business, believes that the contrast illustrates important changes taking place in the market for human capital. In his new book, Treat People Right, Prof Lawler argues that the same economic forces that are making human capital more important - deregulation, globalisation, intense competition - are also changing the implicit contract between companies and workers.

在这个越来越不稳定的世界里,赛仕软件研究所的家长式管理和对长期雇佣关系的期望已经退出舞台,取而代之的是一个更加随心所欲的世界。在这个世界里,忠诚度理念被持续的人才大战所取代。
In this more volatile world, out go SAS Institute-style paternalism and the expectation of long-term employment; in comes a more free-wheeling world in which notions of loyalty are replaced by constant competition for talent.

尽管《善待员工》是对最佳做法的重要概括,几乎涵盖了从招聘、薪资到职位设计的所有内容,但是,劳勒教授提倡的员工管理方式很有自己的特点。在他描绘的未来中,员工必须承担起规划自己职业生涯和不断更新技能的责任。
While Treat People Right is a rich compendium of best practice, covering everything from recruitment and remuneration to job design, Prof Lawler's brand of people management has a hard edge. He describes a future in which employees will need to shoulder responsibility for managing their own careers and keeping their skills current.

“原来的‘忠诚合同’在许多方面是有碍生产率提高的。它吸引的员工一般来说只想要一份稳定的工作,可以看得见未来,而无法吸引那些想要加入一个迅速变化的创新企业的人才,”他说。
"The old-style 'loyalty contract' is in many ways counter-productive. It tends to attract people who want secure, predictable employment rather than those who want to be part of a rapidly changing, entrepreneurial organisation," he says.

普赛弗教授则表示了不同意见。“如果(作为一个雇主)我不指望你在这里待很长时间,我就不会有兴趣培训你,与你共享信息,以及其它所有被大家认为是最好的做法。”
Prof Pfeffer disagrees. "If [as an employer] I don't expect you to be here very long, I'm not going to be very interested in training you, sharing information with you and all the other things that would go on any list of best practice."

然而,要记住的是,这种观念上的差别,与寻求如何管理好员工的公司和在别处寻找成功的公司之间的鸿沟相比,显得微乎其微,就象与赛仕软件研究所和Xilinx之间的差别一样。
Bear in mind, however, that this difference of opinion is - like the difference between SAS Institute and Xilinx - minuscule compared with the gulf that exists between companies that seek to manage people well and companies that look for success elsewhere.

如果90年代的数据具有一定的指导价值,那么投资者应该能找到合适的人才,员工也应该能找到合适的公司。
If data from the 1990s are any guide, investors as well as workers should be searching out the good guys.

附言:尼尔&#8226;帕特森在其电子邮件被公众嚗光后向员工致歉,但他仍继续担任Cerner软件董事长兼首席执行官。在电子邮件发布前的2001年3月,公司股票的交易价为40美元,现在则跌至36美元。
Postscript: Neal Patterson, who apologised to employees for the e-mail soon after it became public, remains chairman and chief executive of Cerner Software. The company's shares, trading at $40 in March 2001 before the e-mail, now stand at $36.

弗雷德里克#赫茨伯格:《再一次:你如何激励员工?》《哈佛<商业评论》, 1968年1/2月刊
Frederick Herzberg: One More Time: How do you Motivate Employees? Harvard Business Review, January/February 1968

埃德&#8226;劳勒:《善待员工!组织和个人如何相互推进,从而进入良性发展循环》由Jossey-Bass 出版, 定价: $29.95/ ?2. 50
Edward E. Lawler: Treat People Right! How Organisations and Individuals can Propel each Other into a Virtuous Spiral of Success. Published by Jossey-Bass. $29.95/?2.50
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
9月28日 每日英语 韩国要走出中国制造业的阴影

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韩国要走出中国制造业的阴影
安德鲁&#8226;沃德(Andrew Ward) 报道
2003年9月26日 星期五 出版


蔚山(Ulsan) 位于韩国东部沿海,是一座人口近百万的海滨城市,她是韩国制造业的一面大旗。


在这里,坐落了全世界最大的造船厂和汽车制造厂,它们都是现代(Hyundai)商业帝国的一部分。上千辆崭新簇亮的现代汽车正等在码头上,将由现代建造的货船被运往世界各地。

然而由于来自中国廉价成本,加上其它亚洲发展中国家的竞争,韩国制造业基地的地位正日渐销弱,包括蔚山在内的韩国一批工业城镇的未来变得越来越不明朗。

上周,韩国最大的企业——三星电子(Samsung Electronics)宣布,它将把个人电脑的制造业务迁往中国。这导致制造业从这一亚洲第三大经济强国的进一步撤离。

为满足日益提高的生活水平,韩国的工资同步上涨,这样她作为一个产品制造地的吸引力也因此消失殆尽。去年,该国制造业的月平均工资增长了12%,达1524美元,相比之下,中国仅为111美元。

“三星大部分的制造业务最终都会落户中国,”该公司电子影像部的总经理崔志成(Gee Sung Choi)说:“除了含有附加值的生产部分以及科研会留在韩国,其它大部分的(制造)会迁往海外。”

并不是只有韩国一国有被“掏空”的经历,在中国扩张的阴影下,东亚其它新兴工业国家地区如台湾、香港和新加坡,也面临着相似的挑战和机遇。

LG电子(LG Electronics)、LG化学(LG Chem)以及蔚山的现代汽车(Hyundai Motor)等韩国企业也都在匆匆赶赴中国大陆。中韩相距一片400公里宽的海域,而横跨这片分界岭的不仅只是大制造商。

一份于本月公布的,针对韩国中小型企业的调查显示, 7%的企业已经移地海外,另有38%有此打算。


国际投资者也开始避开韩国。外国直接投资从2000年的152亿美元降至去年的91亿美元,而今年上半年只实现了27亿美元。

作为一个把经济建立在制造业基础上的国家,工业的萎缩引发了一个重大的挑战。制造业占到韩国经济产值的三分之一,并提供26%的就业机会,而这一数字在美国仅为13%。为此,三星经济研究所(Samsung Economic Research Institute)的Kim Jae-yun在最近的一份报告中这样写道:“制造业的危机将引发整个经济的危机。”

但并不是每个人都把制造业的大撤离看得那么悲观。位于汉城的工业调研咨询公司(Industrial Research and Consulting)的咨询师汉克&#8226;莫里斯(Hank Morris)认为,这是韩国经济发展的自然过程。他说:“在太长的一段时间里,韩国试图保住其低级制造业,这阻碍了其它经济领域的发展。”

在工业化快速发展了三十多年后,韩国近几年来的人年均收入停留在1万美元左右的水平上踯躅不前,而美国大约在3万美元左右。莫里斯先生认为,韩国若想再有一次经济飞跃,则必须效仿日本和西方国家,成为一个知识引导型经济,重视服务并且只生产价值含量最高的产品。


巴克莱(Barclays Capital)的经济师多米尼科&#8226;德沃-弗瑞卡特(Dominique Dwor-Frecaut)认为,韩国失业率稳定在3.3%的事实表明,其它一些工作机会弥补了制造业失去的工作岗位。“韩国经济只是在对市场(主导)力量做出反应,将资源分配得更为有效,”她辩解道:“韩国正将自己定位为中国的科研发展及服务中心。”

德沃-弗瑞卡特女士指出,虽然三星将其个人电脑的装配线移师中国,但它同时在韩国投资170亿美元建造一所最先进的工厂生产液晶显示器,该显示器用于个人电脑的显示器和宽屏电视机。这表明韩国正步日本的后尘,更注重经济附加值。“装配一台个人电脑几乎没有任何附加价值,”她说:“附加值来自于个人电脑的配件,而三星仍将很多配件的生产放在韩国。”

然而莫里斯先生认为,随着制造业岗位的锐减,要想在韩国国内出现更多的其它工作机会,韩国则必须继续其经济改革,这一改革自97至98年间韩国遭遇经济危机后开始实行。封闭的市场必须向外国投资和外国竞争开放,劳动力市场则必须更为灵活,工会的力量应当予以限制。

“由于外国银行和制药公司被韩国重重管制所吓跑,韩国已经在诸如金融服务和生物技术等关键领域失去投资,”他说:“但是制造业的大量失业将迫使韩国做出改变。”

South Korea feels the chill in China's growing shadow
By Andrew Ward
Published: September 25 2003 5:00 | Last Updated: September 25 2003 5:00

Ulsan, a city of a million people on South Korea's east coast, is the most powerful symbol of the country's manufacturing-based economy.


It is home to the world's largest shipyard and biggest car factory, both parts of the Hyundai empire. On the dockside sit thousands of gleaming new Hyundai cars ready for export by Hyundai-built ships.

But the future of Ulsan, and industrial towns like it across South Korea, is increasingly uncertain as the manufacturing base is eroded by low-cost competition from China and other developing Asian countries.

Last week's announcement by Samsung Electronics, South Korea's biggest company, that it was moving its PC-making business to China highlighted the exodus of manufacturing from Asia's third-largest economy.

As wages rise to meet rising living standards, South Korea is no longer such an attractive place to make goods. The average monthly wage in its manufacturing sector increased by 12 per cent to $1,524 last year, compared with China's $111.

"Most of Samsung's manufacturing will end up in China," says Choi Gee-sung, president of the digital media division. "Value-added manufacturing and research and development will stay in Korea but most of the rest will go overseas."

South Korea's experience of hollowing-out is shared by the other newly industrialised countries of east Asia - Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, all of which face similar challenges and opportunities beneath China's expanding shadow.

LG Electronics, LG Chem and Ulsan's Hyundai Motor are among other South Korean companies joining the rush to China, but it is not only large manufacturers crossing the 250-mile Yellow Sea dividing the countries.

A survey of small and medium-sized South Korean businesses released this month found that 7 per cent had already moved overseas, while 38 per cent planned to.

International investors are also starting to shun South Korea. Foreign direct investment has fallen from $15.2bn (
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 楼主| 发表于 2003-12-14 00:00:00 | 显示全部楼层
2003年9月27日每日英语 中国人寿上市后市值可达80亿美元

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中国人寿上市后市值可达80亿美元
弗朗西斯科&#8226;格雷拉(Francesco Guerrera)香港、马利德(Richard McGregor)上海报道
2003年9月26日 星期五 出版


中国最大的人寿保险公司中国人寿定于未来几个月内分别在香港和纽约上市。知情人士称,公司上市后的市值将约为80亿美元。


据信,这家国有企业计划通过在招股中出售总股份的25%至30%,从而募集20亿美元资金,但这一数字低于该公司总裁在上月一次采访中所提及的30亿美元筹资目标。

据认为,中国人寿已经知会香港和纽约的监管部门,称其净资产价值(即帐面价值)约为45亿美元,总资产约为400亿美元。中国人寿在全国寿险市场中占据57%的份额。

国际基金经理将会认真审查该集团的详细财务资料,以决定是否对未来数月陆续上市的中国三大保险公司进行投资。

尽管中国人寿的财务数据将会在接近首次公开发行(IPO)日期时才最终敲定,但目前预期的80亿美元市值将相当于其帐面价值的1.8倍左右。

基金经理们表示,这一估价将高于大多数美国寿险公司的估价。

一位不愿透露姓名的基金经理说:“除非该公司的股东权益回报率(RoE)超过20%,否则将很难证明这样的估价是适当的。”

但也有一些基金经理警告说,由于中国寿险市场增长迅速,因此很难将中国保险公司与外国公司进行比较。去年,中国寿险市场的保费收入增加了33%。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)在最近发布的一份报告中说,如果中国的保费收入到2010年达到亚洲平均水平,即占国民生产总值大约5.8%,则保险基金将增至1.06兆元人民币(合1270亿美元)左右,届时中国将成为继美国、日本和英国之后全球第四大保险市场。



Market listing could value China Life at $8bn
By Francesco Guerrera in Hong Kong and Richard McGregor in Shanghai
Published: September 25 2003 22:02 | Last Updated: September 25 2003 22:02


China Life, the country's largest life assurer, is set to be valued at about $8bn in a listing in Hong Kong and New York scheduled for the next few months, according to people close to the deal.

The state-owned company is believed to be planning to raise $2bn by selling 25-30 per cent of its shares in the offering - less than the $3bn suggested by its president in an interview last month.


Lex: China Life


China Life's expected $8bn valuation is predicated on a relatively modest $4bn-$4.5bn of net assets and a very bloated appraisal value, or promise of future profits. Sounds familiar?
Go there

China Life, which controls 57 per cent of the country's life assurance market, is believed to have told Hong Kong and US regulators that its net asset, or book, value is about $4.5bn, while its total assets are about $40bn.

The group's financial details will be closely scrutinised by international fund managers, who have to decide whether to invest in three large Chinese insurers set to list in the next few months.

Although the China Life figures will be finalised nearer the IPO date, the expected $8bn market capitalisation would value the company at about 1.8 times book value.

Fund managers said such a valuation would be higher than that of most US life assurers.

"Such a valuation would be difficult to justify unless the company shows a return on equity of more than 20 per cent," said a fund manager speaking on condition of anonymity. However, other fund managers warned international comparisons were difficult because of the rapid growth of China's life assurance market, which last year recorded a 33 per cent rise in premium income.

If China's premiums reach the Asian average of about 5.8 per cent of gross domestic product by 2010, insurance funds will grow to about Rmb1,060bn ($127bn), making it the fourth-largest market in the world, behind the US, Japan and the UK, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs.

An additional reason for buying China Life would be its significant weighting on the Hong Kong stock exchange, fund managers said.

The company is likely to have a larger capitalisation than People's Insurance Company of China, a property insurer seeking to raise up to $750m in an IPO, and Ping An, a privately-owned life assurer, looking to raise about $1.9bn.

However, Connie Wong, director of financial services at Standard & Poor's, credit rating agency, said that, unlike foreign rivals, China Life would not be able to invest freely in capital markets. "The company's ability to bolster its profits through investments is restricted by Chinese government regulations," she said.

China Life and its advisers, Citigroup, Credit Suisse First Boston, Deutsche Bank and local firm CICC, declined to comment.

China Life is expected to begin presentations to analysts and fund managers towards the end of next month, once Hong Kong and US regulators have reviewed its application for a listing. xrefSee Lex
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