螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后--Ukraine局势研判

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In 2013 Russian defence expenditure at USD68.9 billion was 35 times that of Ukraine at USD1.9 billion. Based on current spending plans, this gap is expected to widen further in 2014 when Russian spending will reach almost USD80 billion, 40 times the budget of Ukraine.
牋牋 Russian,USA,NATO,EU等势力都可以看看风格。
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Analysis: Ukraine and Russia's defence industrial ties


The strong defence-industrial links between Ukraine and Russia may help shape Moscow's longer-term response to the recent events that toppled Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych - despite Russia's initial angry reaction to what its prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, called an "armed mutiny" on 24 February.
Co-operation in the field of military aerospace has been repeatedly used by Moscow as a bargaining chip during negotiations with Kiev, while the Russian navy remains reliant on the additional capacity of Ukrainian shipyards on the Black Sea for surface ship maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services.
Both sides may therefore suffer negative consequences if relations worsen.
The protests in Ukraine that culminated in the fall of Yanukovych were sparked by Kiev's decision to turn its back on the association agreement with the EU.
Russia had made strenuous attempts to dissuade Kiev from signing the agreement, notably with the threat - from Russian presidential advisor Sergei Glazyev in 2013 August - that bilateral defence industrial co-operation between Kiev and Moscow would be a casualty of the accord.
Soviet history
The deep links between Russian and Ukrainian military industries stem from the Soviet era. Ukrainian independence 23 years ago left many industrial facilities beyond Russia's border, particularly in areas such as shipbuilding and aerospace.
Russian reliance on Ukrainian output persisted, with Ukrainian Motor Sich engines used in platforms manufactured by Russian Helicopters, and Zorya-Mashproekt (ZMP) naval turbines used in Russian naval vessels. Russia has previously raised the prospect of bringing key Ukrainian organisations such as ZMP and Black Sea shipyard OJSC Feofosiya under its own industrial holding companies.
Black Sea
A more pressing issue has been reliance on the MRO capabilities of Ukrainian shipyards on the Black Sea. Russian naval industrial capabilities - under the aegis of the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation - are concentrated in the north, north-west, and far east of the country. This led Russia to divert work relating to its Black Sea fleet (based at Sevastopol under a lease agreement most recently renewed in 2010) to Ukrainian yards.
Moscow has been cognisant of the strategic weak-point this created, and stated in January 2013 that it would invest to develop its own Black Sea industrial capabilities.
Aerospace
Co-operation between Ukraine's Antonov and Russia's United Aircraft Corporation has played a significant part in previous bilateral negotiations between the two countries, notably during the 2010 talks that led to the extension of the Sevastopol lease agreement and in 2013 when Ukraine looked to develop closer ties with the EU. In return for Ukraine turning its back on the EU association agreement, Russia committed to recommence production of the Antonov An-124 and continue development of the Antonov An-70.
However, agreements relating to the aircraft had more to do with relations between the countries than Russia's strategic needs, suggesting it could be an early casualty of cooler relations between the two capitals.

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Russia's military capabilities, as illustrated by this comparison of respective land forces, are significantly larger and more capable than Ukraine's.

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NATO steps up Ukraine risk assessment after Poland invokes Article 4
NATO is to step up its analysis of the risks for the security of the Euro-Atlantic region stemming from the crisis in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said.
The announcement comes after conferring with Poland, which met with its 27 fellow allies after invoking Article 4 of the Washington Treaty. The article allows any ally to call emergency consultations when it perceives a threat to its territory or national security.
The developments in Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimea region "present serious implications for the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area", Rasmussen told reporters at NATO headquarters after the 4 March consultations with Warsaw. "We will intensify our assessment of the implications of this crisis for our security."
Poland requested the meeting late on 3 March after tensions rose between Russian and Ukrainian military personnel in Crimea.
"Despite repeated calls by the international community, Russia continues to violate Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and continues to violate its international commitments," said Rasmussen.
Calling for a peaceful solution to the crisis in accordance with international law, the NATO leader said: "We will continue to consult with Ukraine within the NATO-Ukraine Commission," adding that NATO will engage with Moscow within the NATO-Russia Council on 5 March.

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Ukraine amends defence procurement policy

Ukraine's state-owned military industries are to be exempted from the need to competitively tender for government work following a change to the country's procurement law, approved by the Ukrainian government on 12 February.
In a statement issued on 14 February Ukroboronprom, Ukraine's state-owned defence industrial holding group, said that a change to the Law of Ukraine on Public Procurement of Goods, Works, and Services (the overarching legislation shaping public procurement) would mean that a requirement for competitive procurement of defence articles and services no longer applied to its constituent companies.
According to Ukroboronprom Deputy Director General for Civil Programmes Tatiana Hrypko, the change was a result of inefficiencies in the tendering process that had seen projects delayed or cancelled.
"The need for tenders and the complexity in planning in purchases significantly delayed the process of production by enterprises within Ukroboronprom", she said.
In addition, added Hrypko, the cancellation of the tender requirement for military procurement would reduce the cycle time of the manufacture, repair and modernization of armaments and other military equipment, improve the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in foreign markets; and lead to increased orders.
"The amendments to the Law on Public Procurement will enable our defence enterprises to promote foreign economic contracts, improve their financial and economic situation, and strengthen Ukraine's position as one of the world's exporters," she said.
All 115 subsidiaries of Ukroboronprom will be affected by the change in legislation.
COMMENT
In recent years a dearth of domestic procurement has meant that Ukraine's defence industry has looked to exports in order to stay afloat.
However, Ukraine is currently implementing a long-term military development plan under which capital spending on defence equipment is planned to increase substantially from 2015. Ukraine has committed to increase defence spending from USD3.2 billion in 2016 to USD6.3 billion by 2020 while increasing the amount allocated to military procurement.
The change in legislation means that it is likely that much of the projected investment will be awarded without competitive tendering to state-owned enterprises. While this may have the desired effect of improving competitiveness and efficiency, there is also a risk that the lack of competition will have the opposite effect as it removes an incentive to innovate and rein in costs.

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EU prepares arms embargo against Ukraine


The EU was preparing on 21 February to impose sanctions on Ukraine in response to the increasingly deadly clashes between government forces and public protesters opposed to Kiev's weakening democracy.
Among the sanctions will be a ban on exports of equipment and weaponry to the country that could be used for internal suppression.
"It is absolutely clear that this violence is completely unacceptable and must stop immediately," Catherine Ashton, the EU's foreign and security policy chief, said on 20 February when announcing the measures after an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels.
Given the deteriorating situation in Kiev and other cities across the country, she said the EU has decided "as a matter of urgency" to look at targeted sanctions against government officials and to suspend export licences for equipment for internal repression.
She said relevant working groups within the EU Council have been tasked to immediately take the necessary preparations and that implementation "will be taken forward in the light of developments in Ukraine".
The targeted sanctions will include asset freezes and visa bans against those deemed responsible for the violence and use of excessive force. Moreover, the 28 EU member states agreed to suspend export licences on equipment that might be used against the protesters or general public. The ban will cover equipment used for internal security purposes as well as export-controlled military equipment covered by the Council's 2008 common decision (2008/944/CFSP).
In a statement issued after their meeting the 28 foreign ministers said the EU "is appalled and deeply dismayed by the deteriorating situation in Ukraine" and that the prime responsibility for it "lies squarely with President [Viktor] Yanukovych and the Ukrainian authorities".
At Ashton's request, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Poland - Lauent Fabius, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and Radek Sikorski, respectively - will travel to Kiev to meet with Yanukovych and leaders of the opposition in hopes of bringing an end to the violence.
Asked if the EU might avoid imposing sanctions if Ukrainian authorities shift tactics in response to international pressure, Ashton responded with caution.
"All the [foreign] ministers were shocked by the level of violence taking place, and that will drive the agenda today. Some of the violence needs to be addressed by an independent inquiry into who started it. The government needs to take its responsibilities in that context," she said.
"We call on all sides to engage in an inclusive and meaningful dialogue to de-escalate the situation and find a political solution. The prime responsibility for starting such a dialogue lies with the President," she added.
Brussels and Washington are co-ordinating their approach to sanctions against Kiev, according to statements from the White House.

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Ukraine seeks to invest USD1 billion in defence industries by 2017

Ukraine has announced a plan to spend UAH10.5 billion (USD1.2 billion) to develop the national military industrial complex over the years to 2017, part of a longer-term initiative to regenerate the country's principally state-owned defence organisations.
On 19 February, the plan was announced on Ukrainian national television by Tatiana Hrypko, deputy head of national defence industrial holding company Ukroboronprom. "The goal is to create a cost-effective and optimal structure for the defence industry," said Hrypko.
However, just 30% of the USD1.2 billion earmarked for the programme will come from state funds, added Hrypko. The remainder is expected to come from loans and enterprise funds, which suggests the target may prove challenging.
COMMENT
The government of Ukraine has taken several steps in recent years to nurture the industrial complex it inherited following the Soviet Union's break-up.
A presidential decree in December 2010 - 'On measures to increase the effectiveness of the defence industrial base of Ukraine' - was intended to herald full-scale reorganisation with a view to overcoming issues such as fragmentation, over-staffing, and duplication.
In 2013, Ukroboronprom - which sits above 115 enterprises - said it was implementing a restructuring programme to create a set of vertically integrated research and production divisions to replace a large number of individual organisations.
In February 2014, meanwhile, Ukraine announced that it would amend procurement regulations to exempt local state-industries from competitive tendering for government work.
Overall, the defence industrial redevelopment plan closely mirrors that pursued by neighbouring Russia since the 2000s.
The military industrial base of Ukraine is made up of about 160 design, production, and research and development (R&D) organisations which support a further 3,000 smaller enterprises. The majority of national defence companies remain in state hands, notably under Ukroboronprom.

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美外交官通话遭泄 美国怀疑俄罗斯
出处：华尔街日报 时间：2014-02-08 13:33 【 字体： 大 中 小 】 【打印此页】 【关闭】
　美国强烈怀疑俄罗斯参与了一位高层外交官员电话通话录音遭泄露一事，这位外交官员在通话中对美国的盟友有不敬之词，通话暴露出美国和欧洲在试图就乌克兰的政治危机达成解决方案之际两者之间日益加剧的挫败感。

　　美国官员没有反驳这份录音的真实性。在这份录音中，美国助理国务卿努兰德(Victoria Nuland)上个月与另外一位美国外交官员通话时，显然可以听到她谈到了对美国与欧盟官员之间的政治分歧非常恼火，甚至说了“他妈的欧盟”。

　　努兰德是美国负责欧洲事务的最高外交官员。美国国务院发言人柏莎琪(Jennifer Psaki)周四说，努兰德已就外界报道的言论向欧盟官员道歉。

　　一位欧盟发言人拒绝就通话录音置评，只是说欧盟正在参与帮助乌克兰人民度过眼下的政治危机。

　　美国官员说，俄罗斯副总理办公室的一位助手最先就努兰德和美国驻乌克兰大使派亚特(Geoffrey Pyatt)之间的电话通话录音在推特(Twitter)上发文。

　　数位美国高级官员说，他们怀疑俄罗斯截获了电话通话，但并不能肯定。

　　白宫新闻发言人卡尼(Jay Carney)说，由于通话录音是由俄罗斯政府最先指出并发在推特上的，我认为这从一定程度上说明俄罗斯已参与其中。

　　柏莎琪称这是“俄罗斯间谍情报技术的一个新低”。

　　美国数月来一直被一些盟友指责从事非法监控和窃听。这些指控与美国国家安全局(National Security Agency)收集有关电话通话和电子邮件数据的行为有关。

　　不过，如果有证据表明是俄罗斯策划截获了美国外交官员的电话通话，这将凸显出美国时常提到的反击之词：其他国家也进行电子监控，只是不披露而已。

　　上述通话录音是由一位匿名用户发布在YouTube上的，恰逢莫斯科针对西方在乌克兰的影响指摘言论升温之际，莫斯科指责美国和欧盟组织策划街头抗议活动，鼓励举行意在推翻乌克兰总统亚努科维奇(Viktor Yanukovych)的政变。

　　在《乌克兰商报》(Kommersant-Ukraine)周四发表的一篇采访中，克里姆林宫高级顾问格拉济耶夫(Sergei Glazyev)指责西方为政治反对活动和街头抗议者提供资金和武器。他暗示俄罗斯可能出手干预，保障乌克兰的安全，因为美国的干预行动违反了1994年俄罗斯与美国签订的保证乌克兰领土完整的备忘录。

　　俄罗斯副总理罗戈辛(Dmitry Rogozin)在推特上写道：俄罗斯人会很自然地为一切事情感到内疚，也会为第一个在推特上公布YouTube录音链接觉得愧疚。罗戈辛的助理通过推特让人们最先注意到了YouTube上的这段录音。

　　在帮助乌克兰的亲西方反对派走出与亚努科维奇的僵局方面，欧美一直试图结成统一战线。

　　亚努科维奇的反对者继续在乌克兰首都市中心设置障碍，抗议他去年突然决定破坏与欧盟商议好的一个合作协议，转而接受克里姆林宫提供的150亿美元金融援助计划。

　　美国对亚努科维奇政府采取了强硬立场，还威胁要对那些授权用暴力镇压抗议者的乌克兰高官进行制裁。不过欧盟到目前为止一直拒绝采取这一举措。

　　此外，欧美还在制定一个援助计划，以鼓励亚努科维奇和乌克兰反对派组建过渡政府，结束这场危机。

　　在其中一段通话录音中，努兰德和派亚特谈到如何诱哄反对派领导人与亚努科维奇共同组建新的联合政府，他们认为这是摆脱危机的一种方式。

　　这段谈话显然是在亚努科维奇上月罢免总理和内阁并向反对派提供内阁职位后发生的。反对派最终拒绝接受那些职位，说根据乌克兰宪法来看，那些职位都没有实权。

　　从录音中可以听到，这两位外交官在通话时一致认为，乌克兰前外长亚采纽克(Arseny Yatsenyuk)对经济和管理非常在行，可以在新政府中身担要职。

　　但他们都觉得，前重量级拳击手克利琴科(Vitali Klitschko)太缺乏相关经验。派亚特说，别给他派正事，政治方面他得好好补补课。

　　这两位外交官说，现在的一大难题是如何把温和派政客团结在一起，不要让抗议运动中的激进分子扰乱任何协议。此外，他们还担心俄罗斯，说俄罗斯正在暗中捣鼓，目的是给所有达成的协议打个折扣。

　　努兰德说，她已做通了联合国的工作，后者同意向乌克兰派驻工作人员，帮助拉拢温和派政客，同时联合国也可在其中发挥一定作用，欧盟真他妈的。

　　派亚特回应说，没错，我觉得我们得想办法促成此事，否则莫斯科会暗中“使坏”

henry2000888

俄罗斯也不能大动干戈，因为这样等于把亚洲欧洲的游动资金赶往美国，然后美国资金雄厚的再抬高各种大宗物资的价格，这样中国经济和俄罗斯经济都要遭受双重打击：

第一乌克兰粮仓不能照常供应，俄罗斯和中国的国内物价狂涨，加上原来就经济不稳的拉美左翼政权已经出现大量不稳定因素，从下棋角度说美国这次捞到了好棋子

第二欧洲局势紧张，这样会助推美国经济军事局面全球好转，加上美国已经布局亚太，挑动各种势力，这样很可能出现一石二鸟的局面，中国俄罗斯肯定要出手阻止美国的这种趋势，最起码不能叫美国过的太舒服

golden21c

http://www.nytimes.com/interacti ... ns-crimea.html?_r=3
华盛顿邮报的制作的相关图件，贴出几张大家看看，其余大家看链接吧。

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Ukraine Crisis in Maps

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html?_r=3
华盛顿邮报的链接很细。


A visual guide to the continuing conflict. Related Article

Ukrainian Forces Reported to Have Isolated Donetsk

Updated August 1

Despite the intense fighting around the wreckage area of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, international monitors have been able to reach the site. Ukrainian forces have been advancing into some rebel-held areas, and the Ukrainian defense ministry reported that forces had successfully cut Donetsk and Horlivka off from the east, therefore isolating a large region from the flow of weapons and fighters coming from Russia.Related Article

zuoning

虽然我不了解，但是看了主帖，还是觉得此帖非常好，下面楼层的以后慢慢看