愤怒的大豆

早在中国古代的周朝，大豆就是神圣的五谷之一。

几千年后，对于中国和其它多数亚洲国家而言，大豆依然重要。但在最近，大豆引发了更为现实的关注。

上周一，万名印尼民众走上街头，在雅加达的总统府外抗议大豆涨价。过去一个月，印尼的大豆价格飙升逾50%，过去一年的涨幅高达125%，导致市场供应极度短缺。尽管这种社会动荡尚未波及到其它亚洲国家，但消费者的失望情绪正在加重。

无论是中国豆腐，还是日本豆酱，豆制品是亚洲饮食中的基本食材，也是该地区贫困人口的主要食物。

对于许多印尼人而言，印尼豆豉（发酵的大豆糕饼）通常是唯一的蛋白质来源。政府数据显示，除大米之外，印尼人去年的蛋白质摄入量中，22%来自豆制品。

农业分析师哈伯林德吉特•狄龙(Harbrinderjit Dillon)表示：“对于穷人而言，这个比例可能两倍于此，因为大豆是最廉价的蛋白质来源，而穷人几乎占印尼总人口的一半。”

“这场危机表明政府（的治理）已经落到何种程度。公众的态度是，如果政府连（豆制品）都管不了，那么他们还能做什么呢？”

全球大豆价格上周攀升至创纪录高位，部分原因是美国和亚洲农民转种玉米、棕榈油和其它农作物，以供应生物燃料行业。拉美收成欠佳和不断增长的中国需求也进一步增加了大豆价格面临的压力。

国际粮食政策研究所(International Food Policy Research Institute)主管阿肖克•古拉蒂(Ashok Gulati)表示：“这最终是一场填饱肚子还是填满汽车油箱之间的较量。”

印尼政府现正采取暂时举措，解决大豆价格飙升问题，但其作用可能很有限。印尼政府后勤供应部门主管慕斯达华•阿布巴卡(Mustafa Abubakar)上周四表示，政府将从美国进口质量低于以前的大豆，以控制大豆价格飙升。

其它国家有关部门也开始采取相关行动。在韩国，负责进口的国营机构——韩国农水产物流通公社(Korea Agro-Fisheries Trade Corporation)已准备增加大豆进口，以控制国内市场价格，而韩国农业部成立了一个特别小组，解决人们对大豆价格的担忧。

同时，食品生产商迅速将价格上涨转嫁到消费者身上。在日本，味噌公司最近宣布涨价10%至15%。

在韩国，单在去年12月，大豆价格就上涨10.7%，导致豆奶、小吃和一些其它豆制品零售价格本月最高上涨30%。

在香港，嘉咸街(Graham Street)市场豆腐销售商提高了豆腐价格——至少10年来，这还是首次。73岁的Ng Chou表示：“成本上升了，自去年10月以来，豆腐加工厂两次涨价。”他家的To Kei豆腐店自1949年就开业了。

在他的豆腐店，一块豆腐去年10月售价是4港元（0.5美元），现在卖到5港元。

对于亚洲而言，一个关键问题是对进口的依赖。

在日本每年大约400万吨大豆消费量中，95%依靠进口，其中四分之三来自美国。而对全球价格影响力越来越大的是中国——中国已是全球最大的进口国。

中国的需求一直在大幅上升，尤其是对饲料用大豆的需求，随着中国人越来越富裕，肉食消费也随之增长。过去一年，中国猪肉价格累计上涨80%左右——这也是一个更大的公众失望情绪源。

美国农业部(US Department of Agriculture)称，未来10年，中国的进口需求将让“其它所有国家相形见拙”。到2017财年，在全球大豆贸易的预期增幅中，四分之三以上将来自中国。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻香港经济学家陶冬表示：“对大豆市场而言，中国是最大的波动因素。”

“中国大豆进口量波动非常大，因为进口只是国内产量的补充。这种波动很难解释。”




REGIONAL ANGER MOUNTS AS SOYABEAN PRICES SOAR


During the ancient Zhou dynasty, soyabeans were among China's five sacred grains.

Thousands of years later soyabeans maintain their importance to the Chinese and most other Asians, but they have recently triggered much more down-to-earth preoccupations.

On Monday, 10,000 Indonesians demonstrated outside the presidential palace in Jakarta after soyabean prices soared more than 50 per cent in the past month and 125 per cent over the past year, leaving huge shortages in markets. And while the social unrest has not yet spread to other Asian nations, consumer frustrations are mounting.

From tofu in China to miso, or soyabean paste, in Japan, soya products are an essential ingredient in Asian cuisine as well as staple food for the region's poor.

For many Indonesians, a piece of tempeh, or fermented soyabean cake, is often their only source of protein, and last year soya products accounted for 22 per cent of Indonesians' protein intake, excluding rice, according to government data.

“It's probably double that for poor people, who make up almost half the population, because it's the cheapest protein source,” says Harbrinderjit Dillon, an agriculture analyst.

“The crisis shows how low the government has sunk. The public's attitude is that if it can't even take care of [soyabean products] then what can it do?”

World soyabeans prices climbed to a record this week, partly because farmers in the US and Asia have instead been growing corn, palm oil and other crops to supply the biofuel industry. Bad harvests in Latin America and rising Chinese demand have added to the price pressure.

“It's finally a trade-off between filling stomachs and filling diesel tanks in cars and trucks,” says Ashok Gulati, director at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The Indonesian government is now taking tentative steps to address the price surge, but their impact could prove limited. Mustafa Abubakar, the head of Indonesia's government logistics agency, said yesterday that Jakarta would import lower-quality soyabeans than previously from the US to help contain the price surge.

Authorities in other countries are also starting to act. In South Korea, the national agency handling imports, Korea Agro-Fisheries Trade Corporation, is poised to increase soyabean imports to contain prices, while the Korean agricultural ministry has formed a taskforce to deal with the worries over price.

Meanwhile, food producers have been quick to pass on higher costs to consumers. In Japan, miso companies recently announced rises of 10-15 per cent.

In South Korea, soyabean prices increased by 10.7 per cent in December alone, translating this month into retail price rises of up to 30 per cent for soya milk, snacks and some other soya goods.

In Hong Kong, tofu sellers at the city's Graham Street market have raised prices for the first time in at least 10 years. “Our costs have gone up because the tofu factories have increased their prices twice since last October,” says Ng Chou, 73, whose family's To Kei tofu store has been in existence since 1949.

A slab of tofu from Mr Ng that cost HK$4 (50 US cents) last October now costs HK$5.

An essential problem for Asia is its dependency on imports.

Japan imports 95 per cent of the roughly 4m tonnes of soyabeans consumed there each year, with three-quarters of the total coming from the US. And increasingly casting its shadow over world prices is China, already the world's largest importer.

Chinese demand has been surging, particularly for soyabeans used as feedstock as a more affluent society raises its meat consumption. Chinese pork prices have climbed about 80 per cent over the past year – a much bigger source of popular frustration.

In the coming decade Chinese import demand is set to “dwarf all other countries” and account for more than three-quarters of the projected gain in world soyabean trade by fiscal 2017, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

“China is the biggest swing factor for the soyabean market. Period.'' says Dong Tao, regional economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.

“Chinese soyabean imports are very volatile, as imports supplement domestic production, and the swings can be hard to explain.”