[2007.08.04]Be careful what you wish for-Is inflation China's latest export?
[2007.08.04]Be careful what you wish for-Is inflation China's latest export?
Be careful what you wish for
当心你所期待的
Is inflation China's latest export?
中国正在输出通货膨胀吗？
Aug 2nd 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
CHEAP imports from China have helped to hold down prices in America and other developed economies. However, a flurry of recent reports suggesting that Chinese wages and prices are surging have triggered fears that China is now exporting inflation, rather than deflation, to the rest of the world.
来自中国的廉价进口帮助美国以及其他发达国家保持价格水平的稳定。尽管如此，最近一些关于中国工资和物价水平上升的报道已经引起世界其他国家的恐慌，他们担心中国现在正在出口通货膨胀而不是通货紧缩。
In May the 12-month change in the average price of American imports from China turned positive for the first time since the index was first published in 2004; it showed a rise of 0.6% in June. The subsequent news that China's rate of consumer-price inflation shot up to 4.4% in June has added to concerns that its red-hot economy is now fuelling rather than dampening global inflation.
在五月份，美国从中国进口物品平均价格水平过去十二个月以来的变化率为正，这是这一指数自从2004年发布以来的首次。这一指数在六月上升0.6%。中国六月份消费品物价指数上升4.4%，这一随后而来的消息加重了对中国过热经济非但没有为全球通胀降温反而助长通胀的担心。
Such fears are overblown. The main reason for the upturn in China's export prices is not rampant domestic inflation, but the rise in the yuan. As the dollar has weakened, America's import prices from most countries have accelerated over the past 18 months (see chart), especially from Europe. Since July 2005 the yuan has gained 9% against the dollar, so in industries such as clothing, where profit margins are slim, exporters have been forced to raise their prices in dollar terms. According to Mingchun Sun and Rob Subbaraman at Lehman Brothers, the dollar prices of Chinese clothing exports were about 4% higher in the first half of 2007 than a year ago, roughly matching the rise in the yuan. If Beijing gives in to Washington's demands for a much bigger revaluation, Americans must expect further price rises.
这种担心是多余的。中国出口价格上升的主要原因并不是恶劣的国内通胀，而是人民币的升值。由于美元疲软，美国从大多数国家，特别是欧洲国家，的进口价格在过去的十八个月中加速上升(如图)。从2005年七月，人民币对美元已经升值9%，所以在利润率较低的工业中，比如制衣业，出口商迫不得已提高产品的美元价格。根据雷曼兄弟Mingchun Sun 和Rob Subbaraman的分析，中国制衣出口美元价格2007年上半年比前一年水平高出4%，大概与人民币升值幅度相当。华盛顿方面渴望更大幅度人民币估值，如果北京方面向这一要求妥协，美国人就要对物价进一步上涨做好准备。
It is the weak dollar, not cantering cost inflation in China, that is to blame for higher American import prices. China's manufacturing costs and export prices in yuan terms are still falling overall. The surge in consumer-price inflation is entirely due to higher food prices, which do not affect export prices.
面对较高的美国进口价格水平，应受到谴责的不是中国国内成本推动的通胀，而是疲软的美元。以人民币计算的中国生产成本和出口价格总体上仍在下降。消费者物价水平上升完全是由于较高的食品价格，这并不对出口价格产生影响。
Nor is China close to running out of cheap labour, as some commentators suggest. There are shortages of managers and skilled workers, but it could take at least another decade before China's surplus rural labour is fully absorbed by industry. It is true that average wages have jumped by 15% over the past year, but productivity in manufacturing has been growing faster still, so unit labour costs have fallen. Moreover, those productivity gains!ie, a higher value of output per worker!apartly reflect a shift in the mix of exports towards higher-value goods.This shift, misleadingly, makes it look as if China is charging more for its exports.
中国并不像一些评论家所说的那样即将失去廉价劳动力优势。中国缺乏管理人才和熟练工人，但是，在中国剩余农村劳动力完全被工业吸收之前，廉价劳动力优势至少还能保持十年。的确，去年的平均工资水平增长15%，可是制造业生产率同样保持高速增长，所以劳动力单位成本依据已经下降。而且，生产率的提高——单位工人更高的产出价值——部分反映了出口产品结构中向高附加值产品的转变。
In any case, many worries about the effects of rising Chinese export prices are based on a misunderstanding. The impact of a low-cost producer, such as China, on global inflation depends more on differences in price levels between countries than on the rate of change in its export prices. China has helped to hold down global inflation not because its prices have been falling, but because its goods are so cheap and are gaining global market share. This pushes down the prices of all competing goods sold in domestic markets.
不管怎样，对于上升的中国出口产品价格所产生影响的担心都源于一种误解。一个低成本制造商，比如中国，对全球通货膨胀的影响与取决于它的出口价格水平变化率相比，更多地还是由国家间的价格水平决定。中国已经在稳定全球物价方面做出贡献，并不是因为它的价格水平下降，而是因为它的产品是如此便宜并且在世界市场上占据一席之地。这一原因拉低了所有在本国市场上销售的竞争产品价格。
Even if China's export prices start to rise, they will curb America's inflation rate as long as they remain lower than the global average and China's share of America's market continues to rise. The real threat to America's inflation is not that Chinese export prices start to rise modestly, but that Congress is short-sighted enough to impose protectionist measures which prevent American consumers from continuing to buy cheap Chinese imports.
即便中国出口产品价格开始上升，只要它们仍然低于全球平均水平而且中国在美国市场的份额继续上升，那么它们还会抑制住美国通胀率上升的步伐。美国通胀率面对的真正威胁并不是中国出口价格开始温和上升，而是美国国会太短视，从而采取保护主义者的策略，阻止美国消费者继续购买便宜的中国进口产品。 |
发表于 2007-8-21 01:00:22