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提要：随着企业利润的持续增长和中国股市的不断发展，近来中国企业日趋青睐自筹资金的融资方式，导致银行信贷增速放缓，并使银行系统外流动性相应增加。这无疑使央行现行的货币政策在抑制企业投资过热和流动性过剩方面的有效性大打折扣。而流动性泛滥推动的资产价格持续飙升已成为中国经济运行中的主要风险，但央行却无法通过加息为炙手可热的股市降温，中国的货币政策已陷入捉襟见肘的两难境地。
（外脑精华·北京）过去4年中，中国经济年增速一直保持10%的水平。这或许会使某些人认为，同期中国的货币流通速度也维持在如此高的水平。但这种认识是错误的，因为中国货币流通速度多年来一直呈稳步下滑的趋势。
这或许是一件好事。鉴于广义货币供应增速超过官方目标已有一段时间，货币周转率的下降表明，如果假设货币周转率与过去几年水平相同的话，那么通胀上行速度就低于其理应达到的速度。例如，消费者物价指数增长依然十分温和，2007年4月份仅同比增长3%。货币周转率的下降意味着，有效货币供应增速并没有表面数据显示的那么高。
企业融资方式转变，导致货币周转率下降
如果不是因为留存利润和发行股票募集资金在企业融资中所占有所比重提高的话，广义货币或有效货币供应增速必然也会提升。自筹资金和发行新股的融资方式都使企业无需从银行体系进行贷款，从而降低了货币乘数。以2007年1季度为例，银行系统的贷存款比率仅为67.6%。
官方公布数据显示，中国5000强企业利润总额在GDP中所占比重已从1999年的2%稳步攀升至9%。尽管人民币汇率不断上升、货币政策也日趋紧缩，绝大部分企业的利润却呈持续增长趋势。世界银行公布的数据显示，中国企业存款额至少占GDP总量的20%。在目前的投资繁荣期，以未分配利润或留存利润形式存在的企业存款总额中，约有一半已被企业用于再投资。
中国股市的不断成熟将促使企业更加青睐自筹资金的融资方式。在启动引进合格境外机构投资者（QFII）计划和完成股权分置改革后，去年中国A股市场已成功复苏。在这一初始阶段，中国股市市值在GDP中所占比重或许尚无法达到国际标准，但增速很快，最终推动股市市值基数大增。中国A股市场市值在GDP中的比重已经从2005年的17%跃升至2006年的42%。
2006年，中国企业通过IPO活动从A股市场募集的资金量创下了2200亿元的新高，相当于GDP总量的1.1%。银行贷款依然是企业融资的一个重要途径，但留存利润和发行新股募集资金在企业融资中重要性的与日俱增。这意味着短期内不会再现信贷激增40%的情况，从而使银行系统的信贷增长将更趋平稳。
加息难以抑制投资过热，未来利率将有两次提升
上述这些发展趋势也在一定程度上说明了为什么目前中国的通货膨胀处于温和水平。展望未来，流动性增强很可能会继续先抬高资产价格，然后再引发核心消费者物价指数上涨。这将使中国央行难以制定出及时、有效的货币政策。从抑制通胀角度来看，目前的货币政策也许是前瞻性的，至少从历史标准衡量是这样。回顾1993年，中国央行只是在通胀率达到2位数后才开始提升利率。2004年10月，当通胀率超过5%后，中国央行仅将利率水平提升了27个基点。在之后的一年半时间里则一直未上调利率。相比之下，在通胀率依然低于2%的情况下，2006年2季度央行却大幅提升了利率水平。
但同资产价格上涨水平相比，利率升幅显然过低。实际上，在深、沪两市股指今年以来分别上涨了51%和108%的情况下，即使银行将利率水平提高到最合理的水平也会显得过低而难以吸引储蓄。这或许可以说明为什么存款、尤其是活期存款增长率会持续下降。
不过，当你逐渐认识到这一点的时候，央行决策层开始为此担忧是理所当然的。因为如果利率水平提升一倍后，仍无法达到目前股市投资收益率的水平，中国官方只能进行口头干预。但在股市行情火爆的情况下，口头警告作用有限，而几乎任何举措都会比口头干预有效。因此，官方在继续发出警告的同时，将会继续提高利率水平。我们预计今年还会有两次加息活动，利率每次将提升27个基点。这将使1年期贷款利率在年底时升至6.93%，而且利率存在进一步上行的风险。即便加息无法抑制投资者的狂热，但从抑制通胀上涨的角度来讲，加息仍是一种“正确的选择”。
英文原文：China’s monetary policy dilemma
China's economy has been growing at a real rate of 10% for the past four years. At such speed, one might think that money has been changing hands at an equally furious pace. One would be wrong. The speed at which money has been circulating through the economy – ‘velocity’ in the jargon, the ratio of M2 （say） to nominal GDP – has fallen steadily over the years （Chart 1）.
That is probably a good thing. Because M2 growth has exceeded official targets for some time now and the slower speed at which it changes hands means that inflation has accelerated less than it might have （were velocity as high as in years past）. CPI inflation, for example, has remained exceptionally modest （3% YoY of as April, 2007）. Slowing velocity means the effective money supply is growing a tad less than what appears on the surface.
Rising profits lower companies' dependence on bank loans
Broad and/or effective money supply growth would surely be faster too , were it not for the fact that companies are financing a growing portion of their investments with retained earnings or by issuing shares. Both \"self-financing\" and new issuance bypass the need for credit from the banking sector, lowering the money multiplier associated with a given level of base money. As of end 1Q-07, the loan-to-deposit ratio in the banking sector was a mere 67.6%.
Official data show that profits from the 5000 top enterprises in China as a share of GDP rose steadily to 9% in 2006 from 2% in 1999 （Chart 2）. This uptrend in profits has been fairly broad-based despite exchange rate appreciation and monetary policy tightening. According to the World Bank, corporate savings even account for at least 20% of GDP and during the current investment boom, corporate savings in the form of undistributed profits/retained
earnings finance over half of their investments.
Developments in China's equity market should further encourage corporates to rely on self-raised funds. The A-share market was successfully revitalized last year after the introduction of the qualified foreign institutional investor program and the share merger reform. At this early stage, the market capitalization/funds raised as a share of GDP may not be comparable to international standards. But the growth rates are high and eventually that brings a bigger base. As a share of GDP, the A-share market capitalization rose to 42% in 2006 from 17% in 2005.
Funds raised through IPOs in China's A-share market grew to a record CNY220bn in 2006, or about 1.1% of GDP. Bank loans remain an important source of credit for China's companies. But the growing importance of retained earnings and new share issuance in financing investment means that the days of 40% credit growth are unlikely to return anytime soon. The banking sector should be more stable as a result.
Inflation to feed first into asset prices
These developments partly explain the inflation picture today. Looking ahead, liquidity growth is likely to continue feeding first into asset prices and only later into the headline CPI. This makes the formulation of timely and effective monetary policies a difficult task. From the perspective of CPI inflation, current policy may be considered preemptive, at least by historical standards. Back in 1993, the central bank started to raise rates only after inflation reached double-digits. In Oct04, the PBoC raised rates by a mere 27bps when inflation exceeded 5%. It then paused for nearly a year and a half. By contrast, in 2Q06, rates were lifted by considerably more when inflation was still well below 2%.
In relation to asset prices, however, interest rates appear too low. Indeed, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share indices up 51% and 108% year-to-date （Chart 3）, any reasonable interest rate offered on bank deposits would seem microscopic and not worth the bother of savers. This may explain the persistent decline in deposit growth, especially on time-deposits （Chart 4）.
When you get to this point in the road, though, central bankers start to get nervous, and rightly so. If a doubling of interest rates still can't compare with recent equity market returns, verbal intervention is about all officials are left with. But talk is cheap when markets are soaring. And almost any action is louder than words. So while official warnings will continue, rates will continue to rise too. We expect two more rate hikes this year （27bps each）, which would put the 1-yr lending at 6.93% by year-end. （Table）. The risk is for further hikes yet. It’s the “right thing to do” from the perspective of rising inflation, even if it won’t take the F out of Frenzy.
来源：星展银行，2007.05.17 |
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发表于 2007-5-25 22:15:22