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提要：“五一”黄金周后，中国股市不仅没有出现预期的调整，反而一举突破4000点大关，这让人担心其可持续发展问题。文章认为，由于中下阶层人士普遍投资于股市，而且“十七”大和奥运会开幕在即，股市暴跌会带来负面影响；而加息政策调控效果有限，征收资本利得税会导致股市暴跌，在政策选择上也存在难题，政府需要谨慎应对。
（外脑精华·北京）投资手段有限，储蓄转向股市
本周，上证综指突破4000点大关，创下新高。尽管大家普遍担忧当前可能已经估价过高，但投机者认为股市可以长时间保持估价过高状态，除非政府出手，否则这一趋势不会停止。
“五一”黄金周并未导致股市重新调整。5月10日，上证综指达到4097.7点。一系列令人眼花缭乱的数字说明了中国股市投机的狂热速度：自年初以来，上证综指上涨已超过50%；而与一年前相比，则上涨了160%；5月8日，股民新开账户达到创记录的385121个；沪深两市的成交额目前差不多是亚洲其它所有市场的总和。
毫无疑问，目前许多新股民正乘着市场大势，希望像许多其他人一样迅速获得回报。不过，同样明显的是，此次市场复苏的主要动力是股票似乎可以提供较高的投资回报。
对于理财观念还比较落后的中国储蓄者来说，当今可供投资的选择仍然极其有限。政府设定的银行储蓄利率仅稍高于2%。而现在消费者价格指数超过了3%，意味着存款的实际利率事实上是负的，这还没有考虑利息税。所以，投资者争先恐后利用股市可能带来的快速回报就不足为奇。2006年底，中国银行系统中存款余额超过4万亿美元，金融市场上有着充足的流动性。如果投资者对股市走势仍有信心，他们仍有许多可支配资金可以投到股市上。
股市暴跌，将带来负面影响
对于政府来说，这种状况带来了很大挑战。有报道说，股票购买狂热不仅在城市中产阶层中很普遍，在生活条件较差的出租车司机、领养老金的人和学生当中也很普遍。股市暴跌将引发股民愤怒，像90年代末期那样。这将威胁到政治稳定。政府将希望避免2007年和2008年出现这种场景，因为中共“十七大”和奥运会在即。
股市下跌也将影响到贷款给企业和个人炒股的银行，但对宏观经济的影响尚不能确定。最近的经济增长是由投资与出口驱动，二者都不大会受股市影响。在目前流动性充足情况下，企业可能会放弃IPO，转而向银行借贷，或者利用政府希望发展的企业债券市场。股市下跌消费者会遭受投资损失，因此私人消费可能受到打击。目前正的财富效应可能仅对消费提供有限支撑：近几个月零售额同比增长率在14%左右，而在2005年股市低迷时为12%左右。
政府欲调控，政策将难以奏效
由于担心股市暴跌可能带来的政治影响，政府官员已经不断警告说股价可能要下跌。全国社保基金付诸行动，宣布将减持股票。不过，使股市降温的其它一些手段则问题更大。尽管央行可能加息，从而使存款更有吸引力，但中国金融体系的脆弱性意味着，加息幅度不能很大，而且肯定不能达到与目前的股市回报率相应的水平。对上市公司或经纪公司可疑行为的调查会产生一些影响（因为可以给银行施压，从而确保贷款不会转换用途流入股市），但总体影响有限。
更有实际影响的举措，如对股票投资收益进行征税，可能会导致股市出现暴跌，而不是政府所希望的缓慢下跌。但如果股市继续上涨，也不能排除采取这些措施。
目前股价能否获得支撑是个开放性问题，我们仍然值得考虑一下前景。与过去的几次泡沫相类似，近年来中国股市改进了很多。从上市公司的可靠性、透明度到监管法规的标准，中国股市交易的大多数方面在过去五年已经取得了明显进步。另外，政府花大力气进行股权分置改革，这可能是中国股价走出阴霾的主要动力。上市公司业绩增长前景看起来也非常强劲。尽管对散户来说，如果市场后退，将会有点痛苦，但股市无论是继续繁荣还是下跌，这些因素都不大可能改变。
英文原文：China finance: Momentous trading
The Shanghai Composite Index is roaring along
The Shanghai Composite Index this week surged past the 4,000 mark, setting a new series of record highs for China's leading stock exchange. While there is almost universal concern that the market is overvalued at these levels, speculators are aware that the stock market can remain overvalued for a long time and that the trend is only likely to end if and when the government takes action to stop it.
The Shanghai Composite Index hit a record 4,049.7 on May 10th, capping a week that illustrated that the week-off for the May holidays had not led to any reassessment among stock holders about the market's prospects. A series of vertiginous numbers illustrate the feverish pace of stock speculation: the Composite Index is up over 50% since the start of the year （and over 160% on this time a year ago）; on May 8th investors opened a record 385,121 new accounts with Chinese brokerages; and trade on China's two bourses is currently running at roughly the same as on the rest of Asia's stock markets combined.
Best bet
There's no doubt that many－possibly the majority－of new investors are riding the market's momentum, hoping to make quick returns like many others already have, at least on paper. However, it is also clear that the main driver of the market's resurgence has been the strong returns that equities appear to offer.
For China's benighted savers, options to invest their money at home or abroad remain extremely limited. Interest rates on bank deposits are limited by the state to a level only fractionally above 2%. With consumer price inflation now standing at over 3%, real returns on deposits are actually negative （even without taking into account the tax on interest earnings）, so it is unsurprising that investors have rushed to take advantage of the quick money that appears to be on offer on the exchanges. With over US$4trn in deposits in the banking system at the end of 2006, and the Chinese financial markets awash with liquidity, investors still have a lot more in the way of disposable funds to throw at the market if they remain convinced of its trajectory.
A nation of stockholders
For the government the situation poses quite a challenge, particularly as anecdotal reports indicate that the stock buying craze is rampant both among the urban middle class and less well off sections of society like taxi drivers, pensioners and students. Should the market suffer a downturn these people could vent their fury, as investors did in the late 1990s when stock price crashes occurred, threatening political stability. The government will want to avoid such scenes in 2007 and 2008, as the Chinese Communist Party holds its five-yearly congress and the Olympics kick off in Beijing.
A fall could also have an impact on banks who have lent, perhaps unwittingly, to companies and individuals buying equities, but the effect on the wider economy would be less certain. Recent economic growth has been driven by investment and exports, neither of which would be much affected by problems on the exchanges. Given the current abundance of liquidity companies would likely simply switch from IPOs back to borrowing from banks, or exploit the government's keenness to develop the corporate bond market. Private demand might be hit as consumers suffer from lost investments, but positive wealth effects are probably only providing marginal support （retail sales have grown at around 14% year on year in recent months, compared with around 12% in 2005 when the market was weak）.
Handle with care
Concerned by the potential political ramifications of a stock market crash, government officials have issued repeated warnings that prices may fall; putting words into action, the state social security fund has also announced it is reducing its exposure to equities. However, other options for cooling the bourse are more problematic. Deposit rates are likely to be raised to make saving more attractive, but the weakness of the financial system means they cannot be increased by much, and certainly not to levels that would rival the returns equities have recently delivered. Launching investigations into specific companies or brokerages over suspected regulatory breaches could have some impact, as could strengthening pressure on the banks to ensure loans are not being redirected into equities, but the overall effect would likely be limited.
More decisive action, such as imposing a tax on equity capital gains, would risk precipitating a crash rather than the slowdown the government wants, but if the market continues to soar it cannot be ruled out.
While the sustainability of current prices is open to question, it is also worth taking a step back to put worries into perspective. For all the similarities to past bubbles, China's stock markets have moved on a lot in recent years. From the reliability and transparency of company accounts to standards of regulatory supervision, most aspects of equity trading have improved significantly in the last five years. In addition, the government has sorted out the mechanism for reducing its massive holdings in the market, which was perhaps the main source of gloom about stock prices in 2001-05. The outlook for corporate earnings also still looks extremely strong. Come boom or bust these things are unlikely to change, although that may be of little comfort to individual investors if the market retreats.
来源：经济学家，2007.05.11 |
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发表于 2007-5-24 22:57:45