股指期货能否抑制股市狂热

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中国股市下跌可能会造成不利后果，而股指期货可帮助中国增强股市稳定性。当前，由于存在以下两个问题，中国推迟了股指期货的推出，本文预计最早也要到9月份：首先，如果推出股指期货，短期之内，对其缺乏了解的股民可能会陷入恐慌，抛售股票；第二，期货市场的良好运转需要透明度、有效防范内部人交易以及老练的投资者群体等条件，而这些都为当前中国所缺少，因此推出股指期货可能会适得其反，加剧市场波动。

　　（外脑精华·北京）外部环境造成股市膨胀，政府担心泡沫破裂

　　中国当前的经济环境必然会造成股市泡沫：经济高速增长，企业盈利强劲，人为的低利率，通胀率上升，股市之外缺少其他投资选择。这种情况下，每天都有约25万名新的散户投资者涌入股市。在7000多万投资者的推动下，上证指数在2006年攀升130%的基础上，今年以来又上涨了近50%。

　　面对这种局面，中国政府非常担心泡沫破裂可能造成的不利影响。中国股民之中有大批退休者及其他无业人员。他们投入股市的是自己的储蓄，甚至是押上住房借来的资金。政府担心，如果市场下跌，就可能重创消费者信心，甚至让不满的股民走上街头。另一方面，世界其他国家则担心一旦中国股市崩溃，会迅速波及全球各地股市。

　　股指期货能稳定市场，两问题导致中国推迟计划

　　金融专家认为，股票指数期货可以帮助中国增强市场稳定性。发达国家股市的老练投资者利用股指期货来押注股价走向，以求在股市下跌的情况下减少损失。理论上说，期货也能够增加股民投资决策之中价格信息的含量，从而缩小股市的波动程度。目前，中国没有股票期货、股票期权等股票衍生品，也禁止从事卖空活动。这就意味着，在牛市中股民能够获利；但如果股价下跌，他们却只能出售亏损的股票而没有其他选择。如果所有股民争相退出市场，股市就会出现大跌。

　　中国政府了解这种情况，曾准备在今年春季推出股指期货。但股指期货的计划现已推迟，最早也要今年9月才能启动。之所以如此，原因在于，虽然期货最终将增强市场稳定性，但在短期之内，那些对此缺乏了解的股民会陷入恐慌并抛售其持有的股票。对此，里昂证券专家Fraser Howie表示，有一种错误观点很流行，即推出期货会导致股票下跌。政府对任何可能导致泡沫破裂的因素都很谨慎，对股指期货的态度也是如此。

　　股指期货还有另一个问题。期货市场的良好运转需要一定条件：透明度，有效防范内部人交易，以及老练的投资者群体，而这些都是当前中国所缺少的。虽然期货能够熨平市场波动，但可以对投资者的赌注产生杠杆效应。这种情况下，如果投资者预测正确，就可以增加获利，但如果预测错误，就会增大损失。因此，摩根大通专家Carl Walter表示，推出期货有可能适得其反，加剧股市波动。

　　中金所模拟交易，股指期货是抑制股市泡沫良药

　　中国尝试过金融期货，但结果并不理想。上世纪90年代初，中国推出了债券期货。然而，一家债券公司根据虚假的内部信息进行操作，结果造成巨额损失，最终自身破产，其CEO也锒铛入狱。由于此事，中国在1995年停止了债券期货交易。此后，中国禁止了大多数衍生品交易，但铜、大豆、玉米等初级产品的期货合约仍然在三家期货交易所交易。

　　最近，新近在上海成立的中国金融期货交易所重新开始尝试衍生品交易。去年秋季，中金所开始以沪深300指数为基础，模拟进行期货交易，并在全国各地举办培训班。目前，已有近10万人参与了中金所的期货交易试验。但专家认为，他们的行为方式未必能够代表投资者真正使用期货时的行为方式。芝加哥商业交易所企业发展部主任John P. Davidson III表示，参加试验的交易者不会认真看待其盈亏，不过，如果股指期货进入现实的交易中，就有可能成为抑制中国股市狂热的药方。

　　英文原文：Can China Defuse Its Stock Market?

Index futures might create stability, but Beijing fears they could prick the bubble

Here's a surefire recipe for a stock bubble: Take blistering economic growth, throw in strong corporate earnings, add artificially low interest rates, and stir in a dash of inflation. Then rule out any viable investment opportunities besides equities, and you'll quickly find yourself moving past \"pop\" and into \"kaboom\" territory. That pretty much sums up the situation in China, where 250,000 new retail investors are crowding into the market every day. Together, the mainland's 70 million traders have pushed Shanghai's benchmark index up nearly 50% since the beginning of the year, following a 130% gain in 2006.

Beijing is terrified of what might happen when that bubble bursts. Many investors are pensioners and other jobless people who have plowed their savings－and sometimes even funds raised by mortgaging their homes－into stocks. If the market tanks, Beijing fears, it could dent consumer confidence and send disgruntled investors out into the streets. The rest of the world, meanwhile, is worried that any collapse would quickly spread to exchanges across the globe.

Financial experts say there's a way China could create greater stability: stock index futures. Sophisticated traders in developed markets use these wagers on the direction of shares to cushion themselves against massive losses if the market falls. Futures also theoretically dampen volatility as more pricing information is factored into investment decisions. China currently has no equity derivatives such as stock options and futures, and short-selling stocks－betting that the price will go down－is banned. That means people can make money only in a bull market, and have no choice but to cut their losses when prices tumble. And if everyone rushes for the exits, shares go into a tailspin.

DELAYS AND DOUBTS

Beijing understands this and had originally hoped to introduce index futures this spring. Now the launch has been delayed until at least September. The reason: While futures might eventually create more stability, in the short term investors who don't fully understand the concept might get spooked and start selling their shares. \"There is a commonly held belief, which is wrong, that the introduction of futures causes underlying stocks to fall,\" says Fraser Howie, who manages the China portfolio for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. \"The authorities are concerned about anything that could pop the bubble.\"

There's a second fear. To work well, futures markets require transparency, ample safeguards against insider trading, and a sophisticated investor base, all of which are glaringly absent in China. While futures can smooth out the bumps in the market, they also let traders leverage their bets, increasing their potential profits－but also the risk of bigger losses if they get it wrong. \"Futures won't achieve what the government is trying to do,\" says Carl Walter, managing director at JPMorgan in Beijing. \"They may even cause more volatility.\"

Previous Chinese experiments with financial futures haven't been particularly auspicious. In the early 1990s, China introduced bond futures but abruptly halted trading in 1995 after a securities company, acting on bogus insider information, lost billions of dollars on futures, driving itself into bankruptcy and landing its CEO in jail. Since then, trading in most derivatives has been banned, though futures contracts for commodities such as copper, soybeans, and corn are traded on three exchanges.

Lately, the new China Financial Futures Exchange in Shanghai has been experimenting with derivatives again. Last fall the exchange began simulated trading of futures based on an index of 300 companies and has been conducting education seminars around China. While nearly 100,000 people have taken part so far, experts say their behavior doesn't necessarily indicate how investors might actually use futures. In tests, traders \"don't seriously look at the profit and loss,\" says John P. Davidson III, corporate development chief at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Putting real money on the line, though, might just be the recipe for reining in China's wild markets.