CHINA/BLACKSTONE

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How to win friends and influence people, Part I: Invest $3bn in a US private equity firm's initial public offering, surrender voting rights and agree to a one-year moratorium on rival deals.

Beijing's plans to take a 9.9 per cent stake in Blackstone, the US-based private equity group, is a political masterstroke. Investing some of its dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves in a US entity addresses US fears that diversification into riskier asset classes would hurt the dollar. The timing, just ahead of this week's strategic economic dialogue, also demonstrates a willingness to engage with the US. If, as many expect, Beijing follows the investment with (modest) liberalisation of the financial services industry, Treasury secretary Hank Paulson will be able to impress Wall Street, as well as big business

Finally, as an anchor investor in one of America's biggest private equity firms, Beijing should be assured of a warmer reception next time it goes shopping in the US. Even if Washington baulks – as it did two years ago when Chinese oil major Cnooc sought to buy US rival Unocal – the Blackstone relationship could allow for a more palatable structuring of cross-border deals.

Financially, there is little to quibble with. True, investing in a financial sponsor's fund – the route taken by Korea's national pension fund – might prove more lucrative. But the chances are Beijing will be offered a slug of at least some of Blackstone's juicier deals. Besides, Blackstone stock only needs to rise 6 per cent a year or so in order to outperform the existing foreign exchange reserves' portfolio. And Beijing will be able to shrug it off even if, heaven forbid, the share price bombs. Its $3bn investment is mere pocket change: at current rates, reserves are growing by that amount every two days.

As for Blackstone and its ilk, how reassuring to know there is another pool of capital they can tap should the credit markets sour. From that perspective, Asian central banks' $3,300bn kitty makes them the perfect investor of last resort.


如何才能赢得朋友，影响他人呢？方法一：在一家美国私人股本公司的首次公开发行(IPO)中，认购价值30亿美元无投票权的股份，并同意一年内不再对该公司的竞争对手进行类似投资。

中国政府计划认购美国私人股本集团黑石(Blackstone)9.9%的股权，是政治上的一步高招。通过将一些美元计价的外汇储备投资于一家美国企业，中国政府缓解了美国的担忧：即中国将其外汇储备从美国国债分散至风险较高资产类别的做法将冲击美元。此次投资的时机恰好选在本周即将举行的美中战略经济对话之前，这也表明中国愿意与美国接触。很多人预计，此次投资后，中国政府还会（适度）开放金融服务业。若果真如此，那么美国财长汉克•保尔森(Hank Paulson)便能够打动华尔街和美国大企业。

最后，作为美国最大私人股本集团之一的“锚定投资者”（anchor investor），中国政府可以确信，下次赴美收购时将受到更为热烈的欢迎。即使美国政府反对——就像两年前反对中国大型石油公司中海油(CNOOC)收购美国竞争对手尤尼科(Unocal)的交易那样——中国政府与黑石集团的关系，也能为跨境收购交易带来更合适的结构。
从财务角度看，此次投资也无可争辩。诚然，投资于私人股本发起的基金可能会获得更为丰厚的利润——韩国国家养老基金走的便是该路线。但中国政府至少有可能从黑石一些利润更加可观的交易中分得一杯羹。此外，黑石的股价每年只须上涨6%左右，便可超过目前中国外汇储备投资组合的收益率。即使黑石股价大跌（但愿不会如此），中国政府也能够泰然处之。30亿美元的投资不过是中国外汇储备的一个零头：以目前的速度计算，中国的外汇储备每两天就会增加这个数。

通过此笔交易，黑石等私人股本集团知道，即使信贷市场形势恶化，它们也还有另一个资金来源可以利用，这令它们感到非常放心。从这个角度而言，亚洲各国央行3.3万亿美元的外汇储备，将使它们成为理想的最终投资者。