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随着中国经济惊人发展速度的持续，中美关系也在迅速发展。两国是重要的贸易伙伴，然而双方在从汇率政策到军事战略等一系列问题上存在针锋相对的斗争。最近任命鲍尔森为美国财长，显示出布什总统似乎想要改进两国关系。作为高盛前任CEO的鲍尔森有多年与中国打交道的经验，并且与中国的高层建立了良好的关系。率领这个美国高层代表团访华的正是鲍尔森本人，并且本次访问有望在某些问题上取得突破。随他一同出访的还有其他几位内阁高官以及美联储主席伯南克。
本次对话没有达成重量级协议。双方称取得了进展并且关系进一步改善，但是能反映出来的就是几个新成立的工作组和一些概括性的承诺。工作组将着眼于医疗、航空、能源和环境以及一般性监管问题，其重点是促进两国投资环境的改善。然而，美国代表团的主要使命是说服中国放弃压低人民币汇率，从而削减两国间惊人的贸易赤字，估计今年美中贸易赤字将达到2400亿美元。一个工作组正在进行这方面的工作，但是没有新进展。确实，两天的会谈要取得这样的成果实在是不可能的，尽管鲍尔森称未来取得进展的基础已经打好。伯南克对中国改变汇率政策的需求则更加直言不讳，认为低估的人民币汇率相当于“对中国出口商进行补助”。
概括来看，中国承诺将进一步开放经济、加强知识产权保护以及允许汇率“更有弹性”。然而，中国官员强调他们不会听从外界对其经济战略的指挥，中国的发展模式是自身经济特性及其历史发展阶段所决定。美国方面称将鼓励更高的储蓄率，从而降低对华借款需求。中国政府则要求美国减少贸易壁垒，特别是在高科技领域出口方面。
国会局势倾向反华，布什政府受到牵制
美国政府也许希望缓和与中国关系，但是这种希望受到国会局势的牵制。国会两党内部都有针对中国的批评者，他们要求政府采取更加强硬的手段。最主要的是针对中国的汇率和贸易政策对美国传统制造业所造成的损害，尽管也有人是针对中国的政治体制和人权问题。民主党在这方面最激进，而且从明年1月份开始他们将掌控参众两院。这让民主党拥有比以前更大的力量，而且很多民主党成员都把中国当成重要的棋子。大范围的一系列立法都可能成为对中国提出政策要求的砝码，而且还有一系列新的针对中国的法案正在讨论中。然而，局势并不是绝对，民主党阵营也有反对贸易保护主义、要求采取实用主义路线的人。
伯南克此行之中富有争议的评论很可能给国会中的强硬派提供了一些依据。他称低估的人民币汇率“实际上相当于对中国出口商补助”。 其他人可能会以此为由，要求对中国进行贸易报复。另一个最强硬的人就是美国贸易代表施瓦布。她指责中国没有履行WTO关于开放经济的承诺。鲍尔森非常希望能够带着一些具体的成果返回美国，从而平息批评者，但结果并非如此。他曾经试图努力降低人们的预期，希望那些尖锐的批评家能够给他一些时间让他在下次五月份的会谈中将对话引入到正确的轨道上。
人民币升值效果不大，中美对话触及问题根源
对于中国来说，美国将焦点放在汇率改革上是误导。中国出口的竞争力从根本上说是低劳动成本和开放贸易体制的结果，而且大家一致认为人民币升值30%才可能对出口价格产生作用。此外，过快的汇率重估和放松对经常项目控制会让中国的经济增长不稳定。汇率的迅速提高会加速投机资金的流入。这种所谓的“热钱”已经进入中国的房地产市场，导致人们对该领域可能已经过热的担忧。同时，经常项目的控制是对中国国内金融系统的保护，而金融系统正在进行重要的调整。在调整完成之前就取消这些控制，就有可能造成金融系统不稳定，1997—1998年亚洲金融危机就证明了这一点。最后，强劲的出口是支持经济增长的需要，随着政府对剩余国有企业的改组，国内需求将得到提高。由于中国在世界经济中的地位日益重要，中国经济不稳定对任何国家都没有好处。
然而，放松汇率和资本项目的管制是中国政府的一个政策目标。为消除巨额外汇流入构成的人民币升值压力，央行对汇市进行大规模干预，从而加速了货币供应量的增长，这反过来造成了中国经济的投资过热。2006年，约40%的M2货币增长来自外汇储备的增加。为保持稳定，汇率政策倾向于逐步对人民币汇率进行调整。Global Insight预计2006和2007年人民币将分别升值3.5%和4.1%。预计2007年升值幅度更大，反映出美元压力的重新出现。这会让中国提高人民币汇率，幅度比最初设想还要大。
中国对于战略对话的明确表述是，美国接受对资本账户进行改革，而中国加速国内市场的开放，特别是金融和服务业领域。这个办法真正触及到了美国贸易赤字的根源，而且也认识到出口从传统制造业（日益被发展中国家蚕食）向服务和信息业转移的必要。在鲍尔森的代表团抵达之前，中国颁布对外资银行开放国内银行业的新政策。然而，新政策还是保留着重要限制，要求在华外国银行的分行改制为法人制子银行。对美国的鹰派来说，这种有选择的自由化是中国缺乏诚意的表现。
美官员面临国内压力，中国立场坚定
高规格的代表团显示出美国对中美关系的重视。虽然没有突破，但是双方都避免破坏性的冲突。民主党控制的国会态度强硬的程度尚未可知。鲍尔森空手而归的事实将刺激民主党，但实际上美国能够对中国施加的压力正在逐步减弱，因为两国经济互相依赖的程度更深。鲍尔森努力推行实用主义政策路线，但是现在的贸易赤字问题被如此政治化，以至于他不得不表现强硬，至少在公众面前如此。回国后施瓦布则特别地表现出取悦选民的一面，集中攻击目前的一系列贸易争端和中国承担WTO义务方面的问题。
中国对美国的威胁感到失望，并且试图将争论的焦点集中在理论性问题上，但未能成功。然而，中国仍然认同鲍尔森所试图建立的接触政策，承认两国经济的依赖性日益提高。作为一种姿态，美国代表团到访期间，中国让人民币对美元汇率升至其交易带上限附近。然而，对于中美间贸易关系的阐述，中国方面立场坚定。吴仪副总理强调中国廉价出口商品促进美国的低通胀增长，同时中国巨额外汇储备继续为美国的债券市场提供稳定的资金支持，这些并非都是毫无所求。
英文原文：United States - China: Talks Fail to Bridge Gaps on Crucial Sino-U.S. Trade Issues
High-level Sino-U.S. talks in Beijing concluded today without substantive progress on how to resolve the widening－and increasingly politicised－trade imbalance between the two countries.
Significance
The first round of talks in the strategic dialogue established by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in September concluded in Beijing today with agreement on the need to reduce the trade deficit, but not on how to achieve the reduction.
Implications
For the United States, the debate is focused on the equity of China's fixed exchange rate, with the argument that the yuan is deliberately undervalued in order to inflate exports. However, the Beijing government counters that export competitiveness reflects the economy's low operating costs, while over-rapid liberalisation of the capital account could prompt instability, as major structural adjustments continue.
Outlook
Both sides remain committed to the strategic dialogue, with a fresh round of talks scheduled for May. However, as Paulson returns empty-handed to an increasingly hostile legislature, his attempts to forge a policy of pragmatic engagement with the Chinese will be increasingly difficult to defend.
Slim Pickings
As China's remarkable economic progress continues, its relationship with the United States also evolves rapidly. The two countries are huge trading partners, yet there are acute tensions over issues ranging from currency policy to military strategy. The recent appointment of Henry M Paulson Jr as U.S. Treasury Secretary seemed to indicate that President George W Bush wanted to improve relations. The former Goldman Sachs boss had spent years dealing with China and building up good relationships with key figures. It was Paulson who led the high-powered U.S. delegation to China this week, and there were hopes of a breakthrough agreement. He was joined by several other cabinet-level officials, as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke.
In the event, there were no major deals to report. The two sides reported progress and warmer relations, but all they had to show for this were several new working groups and some general pledges. The working groups will look at healthcare, aviation, energy and the environment, and general regulation, with a focus on improving the investment environment in both countries. However, the U.S. delegation's primary objective was to persuade China to stop undervaluing its currency, and thereby reduce the yawning trade deficit between the countries, estimated at US$240 billion this year. An ongoing working group is looking at this, but there was nothing new to report. Indeed, it was highly unlikely that a two-day meeting would achieve this, although Paulson argued that the groundwork was laid for future progress. Bernanke was much more outspoken about the need for China to change its currency policy, remarking that the overvalued yuan amounted to an \"effective subsidy for Chinese exporters\".
In terms of general pledges, China expressed commitment to the further opening of its economy, the enforcement of intellectual property rights （IPR） and \"greater flexibility\" regarding exchange rates. However, Chinese officials were insistent that they would not be dictated to regarding their economic strategy, arguing that their approach is justified by the particular characteristics of the economy and its historical evolution. For its part, the United States said it would encourage a higher savings rate, and thereby reduce its borrowing dependence on China. The Chinese authorities pressed the United States to reduce its trade barriers－most notably on high-tech exports.
U.S. Protectionism on the Rise?
The U.S. administration may favour warmer relations with China, but its options are constrained by the situation in Congress. On both sides of the political divide there are arch-critics of China, who press the administration to take a much tougher line. Their main argument is the perceived damage that China's currency and trade policies do to traditional U.S. manufacturing, although there is also distaste for the country's political system and human rights record. The Democrats tend to be most vociferous on this front, and from the start of January they will control of both houses of Congress. This gives the party much greater leverage than in the past, and a number of prominent Democrats have made China a key priority. A wide range of legislation could be held hostage by China policy demands, and there is a range of new bills to target China in the works. The situation is not black-and-white, however, as there are others in the Democrat camp who resist protectionism and take a more pragmatic line.
The hardline camp in Congress was potentially given some ammunition by a controversial comment made by Bernanke during the trip. He called the undervalued yuan an \"effective subsidy for China's exports\"－strong language, upon which others may base calls for retaliation. The other toughest talker was U.S. Trade Representative Susan C Schwab, who accused China of failing to live up to its World Trade Organization （WTO） obligations regarding economic liberalisation. Paulson was keen to return from the trip to Beijing with something concrete to pacify the critics, but this was not to be. He has been trying to manage expectations, and will hope that the more vociferous critics will allow more time for the dialogue to run its course, with its next instalment in May.
The View from China
For the Chinese, the U.S. focus on exchange-rate reform is arguably misplaced. The competitiveness of Chinese exports is fundamentally grounded in low labour costs and open trade regimes, and most estimates concur that a revaluation of the Chinese yuan in the order of 30.0% would be required to make an impact on export prices. Moreover, rapid exchange-rate revaluation and the relaxation of controls on the capital account could destabilise Chinese growth. Sharp increases in the exchange rate could fuel speculative inflows of capital; so-called \"hot money\" has already poured into domestic real estate, prompting concerns about possible overheating in the sector. Meanwhile, capital-account controls ring fence the domestic financial system, which is currently undergoing major restructuring. The removal of those controls before the process is completed could prompt financial instability, as starkly exemplified by the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Finally, strong exports are required to support growth, as authorities pursue the restructuring of the rump state sector, which should result in a strengthening of domestic demand. Given China's growing weight in the global economy, instability is in no-one's interests.
However, exchange-rate and capital-account liberalisation is a policy objective of the Chinese authorities. Intervention by the central bank, to neutralise the upward pressure being exerted on the currency by huge foreign-exchange inflows, fuels rapid money supply growth, which in turn underpins unstable investment boom cycles in the economy. Foreign-exchange accumulation accounted for around 40.0% of M2 money growth in 2006. In the interests of stability, policy is geared towards a gradual revaluation of the currency, through an incremental widening of the yuan's trading band. Global Insight projects that the currency will appreciate by around 3.5% and 4.1% in 2006 and 2007 respectively. The stronger appreciation expected in 2007 reflects renewed pressure on the U.S. dollar, which will allow the Chinese to steer the yuan up more aggressively than initially thought.
In China’s formulation of the strategic dialogue, the United States accepts progressive capital-account reform in return for more accelerated liberalisation of Chinese domestic markets－particularly in financial and service sectors. This approach recognises the structural roots of the U.S deficit, and the need to shift exports from traditional manufacturing （increasingly encroached upon by producers in emerging markets） to service and information sectors. Prior to the arrival of Paulson’s delegation, Beijing announced new regulations that opened up the domestic banking sector to foreign lenders. However, significant restrictions remain, obligating foreign lenders to incorporate locally. The cautious approach to reform in China reflects a growing conservative backlash against reformists. Opposition has emerged to land reform, while reversals in policy towards foreign media reflect a reassertion of central government control. However, such selective liberalisation is an example of Chinese perfidy for U.S. hawks.
Outlook and Implications
The high-profile nature of the U.S. delegation demonstrated the central importance that the United States now attaches to its relations with China. There was no breakthrough, but the two sides also avoided damaging clashes. Paulson has helped to improve the mood, but there is always the potential for a new row to blow up. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how hard the Democrats will press when they take charge of Congress. The fact that Paulson has apparently returned empty-handed will help to galvanise them, but the truth remains that U.S. leverage over China is steadily diminishing, as the countries' economic interdependence becomes ever stronger. Paulson is struggling to pursue a pragmatic path of engagement, but the trade deficit is now so politicised that he has to appear tough－at least in public. It was Schwab in particular who was clearly keen to satisfy the constituency back home, focusing on a range of ongoing trade disputes and China's WTO commitments.
China is frustrated with the hectoring it receives from the United States, and has tried－unsuccessfully－to focus the debate on economic theory instead. However, the country remains committed to the policy of engagement that Paulson is attempting to foster, recognising the growing interdependence of the two economies. Symbolically, the yuan was allowed to float towards the top end of its trading band during the delegation's visit. However, China also stands firm on its interpretation of its trading relationship with the United States. Not for nothing did Vice-Premier Wu Yi highlight the role of cheap Chinese imports in fuelling low inflation growth in the United States, while China's huge foreign-exchange reserves continue to provide steady financing of bloating American debt stocks.
来源：全球观察 |
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发表于 2007-1-3 12:43:06