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从巴西南部城市贝洛奥里藏特(Belo Horizonte)驱车出发，约90分钟之后，你便会看到地面上一个巨大的坑。这个越挖越大的深坑，正在为迅速扩张的中国钢铁业提供原料。
Roughly 90 minutes by car outside the southern Brazilian city of Belo Horizonte is a huge hole in the ground that gets bigger by the day, feeding the rapid expansion of China’s steel industry.
这里就是巴西的Brucutu铁矿，其经营者正是全球最大的铁矿石供应商——巴西淡水河谷公司(CVRD)。
The site is the Brucutu iron ore mine operated by Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), the Brazilian company that is the world’s biggest supplier of iron ore.
庞大的黄色翻斗卡车每天24小时不停穿梭，以提高矿山产量。这个投资11亿美元开发的项目，上个月正式投产。
Giant yellow dump trucks trundle around the mine 24 hours a day in an effort to boost production from the project, which was formally inaugurated last month after a $1.1bn development programme.
Brucutu铁矿的大部分新产出将运往中国。该矿今年的产量预计为1200万吨，到2008年将达到3000万吨。
Much of the new output from Brucutu – due to reach 12m tonnes this year and 30m tonnes in 2008 – is destined for China.
淡水河谷铁矿石业务负责人何塞•马丁斯(José Martins)表示，由于中国本身缺乏高品质铁矿石，预计今年的进口量有望达到3.25亿吨，占全球跨洲铁矿石贸易量的40%。
Because the country lacks enough high-grade iron ore of its own, it is likely to import 325m tonnes of the material this year, or 40 per cent of the world’s trans- continental iron ore trade, says José Martins, CVRD’s director for iron ore.
受经济快速增长的推动，中国的钢铁产量和消费量近年来大幅增长，成为推升全球钢铁价格和钢铁行业利润的单一最大因素。
The large recent growth in China’s steel output and consumption, powered by its rapid expansion, has been the single biggest factor that has driven up steel prices and boosted the global industry’s profits.
在截至2005年的5年间，中国钢铁产量增加了176%，在全球钢铁产量中所占份额也从不足五分之一，上升到近三分之一。
China increased its steel output by 176 per cent in the five years to 2005 and its share of world production rose from less than a fifth to nearly one-third.
但许多钢铁业内人士希望，中国的这种快速增长能够放缓，以降低因产量过多而导致供应过剩、价格下跌的可能性。
But many in the steel business hope this growth in China will slow down, reducing the possibility that excessive production will lead to a glut and drive down prices.
淡水河谷及它的两个主要竞争对手——英国的力拓(Rio Tinto)和英澳企业必和必拓(BHP)——对此也颇感担忧。尽管这些公司从中国迅猛增长的铁矿石进口中获利巨大，但它们并不希望看到钢铁市场过度扩张，因为这种局面对它们的业务也有巨大破坏力。
This is also a concern for CVRD and its two main iron ore producing rivals, Britain’s Rio Tinto and the UK/Australian giant BHP Billiton. While these companies have gained immensely from the surge in imports by China, they have no wish to see an over-expansion of the steel market that could prove just as damaging to their businesses.
但马丁斯没有表露出担忧情绪。他表示，作为一个能够较好预示钢铁产量的指标，中国的铁矿石需求增幅正在放缓。
But Mr Martins shows few signs of worry. He says that the growth in demand for iron ore in China – a good indicator of steel production – is slowing down.
他表示：“我们预计，到2010年，中国的铁矿石进口量将达到4.6亿吨，而全球（跨洲贸易量）将高达8.95亿吨。”
“By 2010, we envisage China importing 460m tonnes of iron ore, out of a world total [for transcontinental trade] of 895m tonnes,” he says.
马丁斯的数据表明，中国铁矿石进口增速将开始放缓，预计今年将增加20%，到2010年，增幅将下降到只有5%。
Mr Martins‘ figures indicate that growth in steel imports by China, expected this year to be 20 per cent ahead of 2005, will begin to decelerate and hit a rate of just 5 per cent in 2010.
淡水河谷每年仍将投资15亿美元，用于增加其矿山（全部位于巴西境内）的铁矿石产量，以满足中国的需求。
CVRD is still spending $1.5bn a year increasing the output of its iron ore mines – which are all based in Brazil – to feed Chinese demand.
马丁斯预计，淡水河谷今年的铁矿石产量将达到2.7亿吨，比2005年增加3500万吨；预计明年将达到3亿吨。
This year Mr Martins expects his company to produce 270m tonnes of iron ore, 35m tonnes more than 2005, which should rise to 300m tonnes next year.
预计今年全球的铁矿石总产量（包括跨洲贸易量和本地消费量）为12亿吨。
Total world iron ore production, including material shipped between continents plus that which is used locally, is estimated this year at 1.2bn tonnes.
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻圣保罗的铁矿石专家罗杰•唐尼(Roger Downey)也认同中国钢铁业增速将开始放缓的观点。
Roger Downey, a S鉶 Paulo-based iron ore expert at Credit Suisse investment bank, shares the view that China’s steel industry will start to temper its growth.
唐尼对中国铁矿石进口量和钢产量进行了预测，其结果与淡水河谷的预测大体一致。根据淡水河谷与瑞士信贷的预测，预计中国今年的钢铁产量将增加20%，但在2007和2008年，这一增幅将回落至7%。
Mr Downey has produced projections for China’s iron ore imports and steel production that fit roughly with CVRD’s forecasts. Estimates based on the projections of both CVRD and Credit Suisse indicate that China will produce 20 per cent more steel this year than last year, but then the rate of growth will fall to 7 per cent in 2007 and 2008.
另一个密切关注这些数字的人，是中国最大钢铁公司宝钢集团的董事长谢企华。
Another person keeping a close watch on the figures is Xie Qihua, the chairwoman of Baosteel, China’s biggest steel company.
谢企华表示，中国钢铁行业的增长将会“放缓”。她说：“有人说，由于中国的钢铁产量过剩，中国将成为钢铁净出口大国。我不同意这一观点。”
Ms Xie says that there will be a “slowdown” in growth by China’s steel industry. “I disagree with those who say China is going to become a large net exporter of steel because of over-production,” she says.
“我认为，中国钢铁产量的增幅将与国内需求基本保持一致，这意味着出口增加的余地可能会很小。”
“In my view, production in China is likely to rise more or less in accordance with internal demand, meaning that scope for an increase in exports is likely to be small.”
阿塞洛-米塔尔(Arcelor Mittal)总裁拉克希米•米塔尔(Lakshmi Mittal)，对中国钢铁业的增长前景也很乐观。在米塔尔钢铁(Mittal Steel)发布第三季度业绩报告之际，他会就此发表更多见解。一旦米塔尔完成以269亿欧元(合342亿美元)收购阿塞洛(Arcelor)的交易，新公司将成为全球最大钢铁企业。
Lakshmi Mittal, president of Arcelor Mittal, which will be the world’s biggest steel company on completion of the |
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发表于 2006-11-14 16:29:51