日财相：日本经济状态良好

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英国《金融时报》戴维•皮林(David Pilling)、马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)东京报道
2006年11月10日 星期五
  
日本财务大臣尾身幸次(Koji Omi)昨日接受本报专访时表示，日本能够在不危及日本经济增长前景的情况下，继续实行有争议的削减公共开支的政策。

尾身幸次极力为日本政府的政策辩护。他表示：“我们认为，经济增长与财政巩固是一致的，不是对立的。”他认为，日本经济的基本面依然强劲。

下周，日本将公布第三季度国民生产总值(GDP)增长数据。由于个人消费急剧收缩（第三季度个人消费环比下降1%），一些经济学家担心，第三季度产出增幅可能会下降。

雷曼兄弟(Lehman)全球首席经济学家保罗•谢尔德(Paul Sheard)表示，他担心日本经济当局正在错误的时机采取紧缩政策。他表示：“日本的总体情况是通缩仍在持续，而货币政策和财政政策都在收紧。”

然而，73岁的尾身幸次坚称，日本经济基本面仍然强劲有力，增长放缓是外部因素所致，其中包括美国需求减弱等。他表示：“从基本面讲，日本经济状态相当好。”他又补充指出：“从现在开始，随着企业利润增长带动工资上调，消费水平应该会随之有所提高。”他预测，企业利润会更快地体现在薪资上。

日本财务省一位高级官员表示，安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)新政府将会“不留情”地削减成本。接着，日本政府将在明年秋季开展一场全国大讨论，看公众是否愿意缴纳更高税额以维持公共服务。

这位官员还表示，财务省必须证明它在财政巩固方面取得进展，以缓解金融市场的担心，并将国债利率保持在目前的低水平上。

尾身幸次不愿就日本央行(BoJ)是否应该避免加息的问题发表意见。日本央行货币政策委员会将于下周召开会议。

尾身幸次表示，通过鼓励创新投资，特别是对制造业的创新进行投资，日本可以提高自己的增长潜力。他表示，日本目前40%的企业所得税率偏高，财务省正在讨论如何降低这一税率。

CUTS ARE NO THREAT TO JAPAN, SAYS OMI  

  
By David Pilling and Martin Wolf in Tokyo
Friday, November 10, 2006
  
Japan can continue its controversial policy of cutting public spending without damaging the country's growth prospects, Koji Omi, finance minister, told the Financial Times in an interview yesterday.

In a strong defence of government policy, Mr Omi said: “Our thinking is that economic growth and financial consolidation are compatible rather than contradictory.” He believed the economy remained fundamentally strong.

Mr Omi's comments precede next week's release of official figures for third-quarter gross domestic product growth. A sharp contraction in private consumption, down 1 per cent quarter on quarter, has some economists worried that output may have shrunk in the three months to September.

  Paul Sheard, global chief economist at Lehman Brothers, said he was concerned that Japan's economic authorities were applying the brakes at the wrong time. “The big picture in Japan is that deflation continues and monetary and fiscal policy are both being tightened,” he said.

Mr Omi, 73, however, insisted Japan's underlying economy remained robust and was slowing largely as a result of external factors, including softer US demand. “Fundamentally speaking, the state of the economy is fairly good,” he said. “From now on, consumption levels should rise with wages as a result of higher earnings from companies,” he added, predicting that corporate profits would feed through more quickly into salaries.

One senior finance ministry official said the new administration of Shinzo Abe would cut costs “until it hurts”. Then, next autumn, the government would begin a national debate about whether the public was willing to pay higher taxes to maintain public services.

The finance ministry also says it must demonstrate it is making progress on fiscal consolidation to reassure financial markets and keep interest rates on government debt at current low levels.

Mr Omi would not comment on whether the Bank of Japan, which holds a monetary policy board meeting next week, should refrain from increasing interest rates.

Mr Omi said Japan could raise its potential growth rate by encouraging investment in innovation, particularly in manufacturing. At 40 per cent, Japan's corporate tax rate was high, he said, adding that his ministry was discussing how this could be cut.