I do not think Chen Shui-pian would be recalled in Taiwan for the case of acceptance of bribes by his son-in-law, Zhao Jian-ming.
To begin with, up to now, there are still no direct proofs to prove Chen Shui-pian involved in the bribe case himself. So the prosecutor can not bring an accusation against Chen Shui-pian now. Even though it all goes to show his son-in-law is criminal, Chen Shui-pian is not for the lack of proofs. And of course, he would not be recalled if the proofs process stopped.
In the next place, to recall the president in Taiwan is difficult according to the law. There must be more than 2/3 of the assemblyman to agree on the motion of recalling Chen Shui-pian, or above 1/2 of all the people in Taiwan agree to recall the president. Both the conditions are difficult to attain. For, in the legislature, the opposite parties do not occupy more than 2/3 seats, and the canvass of the people wishes indicate that the result of the public vote decision will not definitely.
At last, the opposite are not united enough. There are complicate game playing of right among Ma Ying-jiu, Song Chu-yu, and Wang Jin-ping, who are the leaders of the opposite. It is inevitable that they disturb each other for they must be careful enough not to be attack by people on their own side. So the opposite can not take fully efficient actions to defeat Chen Shui-pian. And according to the newest canvass, people who object recalling Chen Shui-pian are becoming a little more. We all know that Chen has the ability to grasp the sympathy feeling of the people to protect himself.
In conclusion, there will still be a long way to go to recall Chen Shui-pian.
From both pan-green and pan-blue wings,antipathy toward Chen Shui-bian's address is now ironclad within the island.Lee Teng-hui expressed his blatant dissatisfaction recently,saying Chen's New Year address was all for the polling and stock market."Ah-bian seems to chop and change his words fantastically." said Lee, "His New Year address differs a lot from what he has said before. What does he really want to tell us? A nation's development heavily depends on its leader,whose talent and moral integrity guide the nation into a bright future.What can we expect from a leader lack of any talent or moral obligations? If he was talented but morally deficient,that would be even worse."
So,Chen is confronted with two kinds of ordeals:Is he a leader lack of any talent or moral obligations,or a talented, but morally deficient one? Either is a terrible choice.
This is really interesting. Chen's deliberate New Year Address aimed primarily at wooing deep green voters.In his address he planned to tighten up regulations on cross-strait trade,and promised to promote the popular vote for the new constitution before 2007,calling for the drafting of "new constitution" by those with "nongovernmental" background(the alias of Taiwan's independence supporters). Unexpectly there were unthankful deep green voters and bitter criticize from Lee Teng-hui,who refused to believe in such capricious nonsense and compared him to the moon changing its shape constantly while describing him as morally deficient.Chen was simply bringing shame upon himself when he was met with lines of cold shoulders.
The proposal to recall Chen resulted heated debate within KMT Central Standing Committee.Most of delegates were against the premature recall motion by insisting a thorough plan is required.They pointed out the proposal only had slim chance to be approved at the Legislative Council,moreover it would help to release the embattled DPP from its scandal.Some others supported the proposal but still thought it improper at this time.Lien Sheng-wen made his amusing remarks that as for him Chen had never been a legal president so it would be unnecessary to debate on the recalling issue.He was,however,a firm supporter of Ding's proposal too.
The proposal met lukewarm response at grassroot level indeed.Chen's fall may be delightful news but they won't rejoice for too long since Lu Hsiu-lien will take his place.Is there anything worth celebrating---for the old wine in new bottles?
I think Mr. Chen ( Shui-bian CHEN) will be in charge of his function for the time being.
The main reasons are as follows:
Firstly, Mr. Chen was elected as a leader by the citizens of Taiwain, because he represets for
majority of persons in those days. Although there are frequently a oppsite peal in Taiwan,
The government will employ Mr. Chen for a relative long time, in order to stablize Taiwan.
Secondly, Mr. Chen is a very crafty politician. He understands what the government want. Therefore he will utilize this advantages to keep his positions. As we can see, there are also many competitors in the election and they finally faied. This phenomena indicates that Mr. Chen is skilled at his election.
Last, this is most important. Although someones wants Taiwan to separate from the Mainland, including Mr. Chen. Furthermore, our Central Govenment presents a positive response and hope Taiwan has a right decision that Tainwan return to Mainland. This situation has been existing for a long time. This implies that Mr. Chen is crafty and he is good at taking the current situation to keep his position.
In a word, Mr. Chen will not be refused for the time being.
Why Formosa, Chen should be dismissed from office? The first reason is to awaken the next generation. No wonder at home or in the school, children are taught to behave straight, speak cordially and keep away from corruption. As for Formosa, Chen, he never keeps his promises; as for his relatives, they run for stock exchange when at work, go gambling and whoring, practice bribery at the elections and abuse power for personal gain. Under such a circumstance, people are confused about how to teach their children. So Formosa, Chen should be dismissed.
Reason number two, for the dignity of Taiwan People. In the past Taiwan had seldom appeared as the focus of international media. But for the past month, Taiwan was known to all, only for the sake of Formosa, Chen’s family. Whatsoever, it is a great shame for Taiwan people in the world. So he should be dismissed.
Reason number three, for the democracy of Taiwan people. Where there’s selection, there must be dismissing. Formosa, Chen was selected by the people. If he is not competent for his position and looses his liability from the people with his supporting rate as 18%, the people have the same right to dismiss him.
It’s enough to dismiss him for his ill-performance, incompetence, and losing his liability from the people, not necessarily for committing any crime.
Latest News Report: Anti-Chen motion fails in Taiwan's parliament
An attempt by Taiwan's opposition to force a referendum on the political future of embattled President Chen Shui-bian has failed in parliament, with members of his ruling party blocking the motion.
The recall motion to push Chen out of office launched by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) needed approval of at least two-thirds of the country's 221 legislators, or 148 votes.
But only 119 cast ballots in favor while all 88 lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) boycotted the vote, while 12 members of the allied Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and one independent cast invalid ballots.
The recall motion -- the first ever in Taiwan's history -- would have triggered a national referendum on Chen's fate in three months if it had passed.
Chen is mired in a series of corruption scandals that have plunged Taiwan into what Vice President Annette Lu calls the worst political crisis since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
<my comment:
Even though Chen had created very bad image of himeself as a politician, It is not a good time to react too tough to push Taiwan into a National referendum situation. The vote has shown enough information on what the public is hoping.
I believe it will be a toublesome period in maybe next decade as far as political system is concerned. It needs more time for new generation leader to seek for a compromise for taiwanese in the future environment under mailand's pressure. There won't be easy for anyone who wants to be President of Taiwan.
Obviously, Chen is losing taiwanese public support, even this Anti-Chen vote for recalling failed, I don't think Chen is able to fix up all the damage that had been done. His political career future is not going last for too long.
All the taiwnese are hoping to have a better leader, but because of the political system, democracy and bureaucracy are mixed up, so there are many controdictions that need to be solved.
Imagine if the president was not Chen Shui Bian, if it was Li Deng Hui, Do you believe he could do better than Chen? I simply don't believe any President elected before could manage well on Taiwan' affairs. Because all the unsolved critical problems are still existing and never been solved.
Most what Mr.Chen's council of ministers have done is not consistent with they promised when voting was on. This is a great problem of honesty. He and his council of ministers promised that they would improve people's level of life in their goverment. But now, little of their promise has come true. So, people of Taiwan have been unsatisfied with them,even angry. His council of ministers also have problems. For example,some days ago, Mr.Chen promised that his council of ministers did not have problems of corruption. But only after a few days, his relative who worked in his council of ministers was found out his corruption. What does this show? Mr.Chen has great problems of honesty. So, people of Taiwan will not trust him again.
Unity of China is another great problem. Mr.Chen only knows how to pursue his own interests.
He does not take care of people of Taiwan. He wants to be independent, then he will be a dictator and he will enjoy himself. But he does not consider what results this will bring. For example, he extremely to persude his council of ministers to buy arms from USA. What do these arms bring? They can not protect their own people. FOr example, some days ago, many
Taiwan fisherfolks were driven from their own water areas by Japanese. Taiwan goverment took no measures to deal with this. But our government protected them greatly. This phenomenon showed that Mr.Chen can not obtain morale.
All in all, Mr.Chen's policy can not make people of Taiwan satisfied, and he will be dismissed soon.
Ch'en Shui-pian , lawyer and politician who served as president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) from 2000.Born into a poor farming family, Chen won a scholarship to National Taiwan University and graduated with highest honours from its law faculty.So from the educational backgroud,we would say that he is prominent.But i would still say that he will be fall out of power,because it is the main steam of the contemporary politics.Now most of the Taiwanese want Ch'en Shui-pian to leave office ,for they afraid that the People's republic of China would attack Taiwan if Mr.Ch'en insist on splitting Taiwan out of China.And also ,recently,his son's scandal is fatal to renew his term of office.
In all,i think that Ch'en Shui-pian would be relieved from office.
We stand a very slim chance to recall Chen shui-pian from his position
Though Taiwan's opposition party has voted to support a referendum to oust President Chen Shui-bian, who is embroiled in a series of corruption scandals involving his family, many challenges lie ahead in the recall motion.
Firstly, a referendum to recall the president requires the support of two-thirds of Taiwan's 225-seat legislature before it can be presented to the island's voters for approval. There will be little possibility to succeed. As the news shows that such attempt has failed in parliament.
Secondly, Chen shui-bian has not been charged with any wrongdoing though his son-in-law was detained by police in late May on suspicion of insider trading, while his wife has been accused of accepting free vouchers from an upscale department store. Surprisingly, his public approval rating has plummeted as the corruption scandals have unfolded.
Thirdly, Chen shui-bian is a wicked, smart, rounded politician. Several scandals and crisis in history about him were successful avoided by him. He is a great expert in taking advantage of such situations to his own avail. Obviusly he is by no means a green hand in dealing with this crisis this time.
All in all chen shui-bian is as wicked as a fox.
"taking bribe, manipulating stock market...... "abian has got involved in so many scandals. claims to dismiss abian's power have never been stronger than today. politicians from pan-blue group, irritated taiwai citizens, people of china mainland are all looking forward to the dismiss day .
but, when it comes to the question,"whether abian will be dissmissed or not", my answer is "aian will definitely be dismissed, but it takes time ". reasons are as follows:
first, most members of zimin party, which is still in power, does not want to give up. because abian's step-down-from-power means defeat to them. they will continue to support abian for their own benefits.
second, advocators of "Taiwan independence ideology" , who are force to be reckoned with, don't want abian to be dismissed. since abian is their leader and spokesman. once abian drop the reins of government, Taiwan independence ideology will receive a unprecedented strike. so these advocators will do their best to prevent these things happen.
third, the latest news report:" Anti-Chen motion fails in Taiwan's parliament" has reminded us that never express too much optimism about the anti-chen motion, there is still a long way to go.
I think perhaps a Bian willn’t leave government
US whichn was regarded as political backer's without doubt to be the Taiwan in the political situation, Us is also decide Chen Shuibian's destiny in the certain degree. Although US to Chen Shuibian this "trouble maker" favorable impression lost good impression , but after Chen Shuibian guaranteed once more does not change "four not" the pledge, the Bush Administration or has stretched out hand of the aid to Chen Shuibian. This is because, first of all, US don’t deprive Chen Shuibian’s power. Taiwan's bluish green both sides both walk the pro-American route, essentially certainly not anti-America.
Second, US did not hope the Taiwan political situation is turbulent. "Taiwan once has the turmoil" is the mainland one of three principles to Taiwan of resorts to violence. At present US not yet leaves from the Iraqi war mire, also must face Iranian and the North Korean nuclear crisis, originally on with difficulty gives dual attention to Taiwan sea. Facing approaches day by day "the intermediate stage election", poorly to the Bush Administration which deals with really is not willing Taiwan to appear any accident, even if is in the system recall motion.
Third, the prospect of "Bian being recalled " is difficult to predict. if US also wants "to abandon Chen to change Ma", nobody dares to guarantee despairs Chen Shuibian make more matters in both banks relations or in the island, the situation out of control possibility outbreak.
Based on the above factors, approximately may draw the conclusion, Chen Shuibian although does not feel better, but can maintenance political power to 2008
Will Chen Shui bian be dismissed from his present position?
I think he will be dismissed from his present position.
The first and the most important, Taiwan Province is an indivisible part of China. It is the important truth. Anyone who wants to divide Taiwan province from China will be blamed and abandoned by Chinese people from the Taiwan Island and mainland. Chen Shui bian blazon forth the saying the Taiwan should be an independent part; he overlooks the main trend, the wish of all Chinese people. He will be opposed by all Chinese people, all compatriots.
Second, Chen Shui bian depends on the support of some ill-wished people; especially some countries that reluctant to see the unification of our country. He sacrifices the interest of our country and our people for his own purpose, which is concealed from people. This behavior could be named quislism. He is a transgressor of our country.
The third, the corruption of his family member and himself is unveiled now. This will accelerate the process.
In all, the unification of our country is the will of people. We demand unification, prosperity and stabilization. The retroaction will be abandoned and condemned.
In my opinion President Chen Shui-bian won’t be pushed out of office recently.
There are so many opposite parties in Taiwan like Kuomintang and People First Party and so on. But there is lack of coordination. Each of them acts on it’s own will. They keep planning how to gain a bigger benefit. So absolutely they would have failed in parliament. Other important reason is that the people in Taiwan are not willing to see the political situation in a state of turbulence. Not to say there are someone in the island who want to be independence for a long time. And Bian has a good relationship with a lot of officials of the United States. The impact of the US on the political situation in Taiwan is tremendous. We should keep the common notion in our minds that politics is dirty. There is no sincerity and integrity in it. So when we analyze the political situation we must think about who will take the advantage. If Bian was removed from his office by popular vote. The United States won’t be happy. They take Taiwan as a fortress to contain the rapid development of China. At the same time the people who support Bian and beat the drum for independent of Taiwan won’t be happy too. Surely they are only the minority, but the bad influence is extremely big.
So in a word, it seems like a mission impossible.
I would say that Mr.Chen Shui-bian must fall out of power,the reason is as follows:
First,from the influences of outer world.China will not support him of course,because he wants to split Taiwan off China.Furthermore,China also makes the climate of opinion that Taiwan is part of China all the time,many countries who want to make a deep relationship with China would admit that 'the principle of one China'.But Mr.Chen is in the part of splitting Taiwan out of China,so he would not be accepted by those countries mentioned above.
Second,from the influences in Taiwan.We all know that there are many parties in Taiwan,mainly the Democratic Progressive Party，Taiwan Solidarity Union，Nationalist Party of China，People First Party，New Party，Non-Partisan Solidarity Union.They all run in an election,and the competition is very strong.And we know that the Nationalist Party of China has the biggest influence in Taiwan,but Chen is in the Democratic Progressive Party.
Third,from his families.Recently,his son's scandal would be fatal to his father in the forthcoming election.
In all,i think that Mr.Chen Shui-bian would step down from the stage ！
Topic: Wether Mr. Chen Shui-Bian would be dismissed by the legislature institution?
Argument:
It is not easy to say yes or no in such a sensitive time point. However, I don't really think he would be dismissed by the legislature institution.
Based upon the constitution of Republic of China, the dismiss process is a time-consuming and highly-demanding one which will cost a lot of effort and money of people without fruitful results. It's also noticed that the mass media is still controlled by the Democratic Progressive Party, and the public seems prefer the stability of the society, like what Chinese Communist Party say to us: Stability crash everything. Although Kuo Min Tang and their allies organized a bunch of demonstration and protest, the people still hope that the area is under control by a reasonable party. It's true that corrupted party should take responsibility, how about Chinese Commuinist Party, whose candres, almost from the basic level to the highest level, all corrupted? Should Chinese Communist Party transfer its power to a more self-behaved party or organization? The answer is no. No one will automatically retire from the historical stage, Mr. Chen Shui-Bian is obviously not an exception. He will attempt to move the eyes of Taiwan people to something else such as the safety and security of Taiwan, the enterprises of Kuo Min Tang, and the reformation of Taiwan economy, and so forth.
Last but not least, we are not supposed to forget he is supported by a strong back ground, US government. I can not see any omen showing the decision of Uncle Sam to dismiss Chen. Therefore, it is recommended that we at least show some caution to make a fast judgement of such an issue.
I think the chance to unseat Chen Shu-bian does not disappear, even after the pan-blue opposition failed to pass the recall motion on Tuesday.
The failure of the pan-blue in the Legislature showed that both Ma Ying-jeou’s Kuomintang and James Soong’s People’s First Party were impotent and clumsy in taking advantage of the scandals of Chen’s son-law and aides to split Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) against Chen. But Chen still did not achieve his final victory. Approval for Chen was not promising. According to one telephone poll by the China Times, 56 percent of 727 respondents said Chen was no longer fit to rule; only 22 percent said he was still fit to rule. Another telephone survey by the Untied Daily News showed that 68 percent of 836 respondents were unhappy with the DDP, a record low since its founding 20 years ago. Such polls showed Chen’s political crisis has not been diffused.
To unseat Chen, the opposition no doubt need support from the DDP. If more scandals directly related to Chen and his wife are revealed in the near future, the DDP will face greater pressure and some DDP members in the Legislature will probably finally break away from him. With the split of the DDP, the chance to dismiss Chen then will greatly increase.
I don’t think the MR chen will lost his position. First of all, Mr. Chen was elected as a leader by the citizens of Taiwain, because he represets for majority of persons in those days. Therefore he will utilize this advantages to keep his positions. our Central Govenment presents a positive response and hope Taiwan has a right decision that Tainwan return to Mainland. In the past Taiwan had seldom appeared as the focus of international media. Where there’s selection, there must be dismissing. Formosa.
In addition, it needs more time for new generation leader to seek for a compromise for taiwanese in the future environment under mailand's pressure. All the taiwnese are hoping to have a better leader, but because of the political system, democracy and bureaucracy are mixed up. people of Taiwan have been unsatisfied with them,even angry. His council of ministers also have problems. Although US to Chen Shuibian this "trouble maker" favorable impression lost good impression , but after Chen Shuibian guaranteed once more does not change "four not" the pledge, the Bush Administration or has stretched out hand of the aid to Chen Shuibian.
Whether Chen Shui-pian would be dismissed from office or not is a hot topic today. Different people have different answers due to the respective point of view. Some place more stress in the former while others attach heavier weight to the latter. Were I forced to make a choice, I would not hesitate to side with the former for several significant reasons as the followings.
No issue is more vital than this one that the scandal of his son-in-law, which was exposed recently by the media in Taiwan, would definitely bring negative effects on him. In fact, it is the scandal that accelerated his dismiss from office. Championing examples are laden with the evolution of human society. Let us take a glimpse of Nixon, a prestigious president of America. He was outstanding in almost every aspect, yet he was dismissed form office because of Watergate Scandal. Don’t you think the example quoted above is considerably persuasive?
Influence of Taiwan’s people is another head and chief reason that I have chosen to put here. As a fact, many campaigns have been carried out by many opposite parties in Taiwan such as Kuomintang and People First Party. Many investigations which were carried by the media had already expressed that more and more people of Taiwan oppose the Chen Shui-pian’s government. If you can see that, you can understand my choice more deeply.
However, many difficulties have been encountered on the way to dismiss Chen Shui-pian from office. On the one hand, Chen Shui-pian has cultured many trusted followers during his 6-year tenure of office. On the other hand, the opposite parties did not coordinate with each other to oppose Chen Shui-pian’s government. Nevertheless, the advantages carry much more weight than the demerits.
To sum up, given the reason discussed above, which sometimes intertwined to formed an organic whole and thus become more persuasive, we can safely reach the conclusion that Chen Shui-pian would be dismissed from office.
Whole fraud case how long does it make continuously, I'm afraid that no one can make it clear . But a lot of people think follow-up of this influence , possibly sustain until 2008. Will Chen Shui-bian hand in ahead of time excellently this time? It is only two ways to want Chen Shui-bian to step down from the stage. First, Chen Shui-bian resigns by oneself. By the look of present situation, this is impossible at all. Second, fire via certain procedure . But there is suitable degree of difficulty in this, we can say it is almost impossible. What built clauses and stipulated again fire the threshold very high, needed suggesting by 1/ 4 of the legislative commettee in " constitution " of Taiwan, upon consent by 2/3 of all's legislative commettee case , and vote through half the number elector, the valid ballot plurality is agreed to be just calculated and passed. According to political ecology of Taiwan at present, the firing case can not appear in " the legislative organ " at all.
history in Taiwan. Ma Yingjiu thought it was the shame in democratic history in Taiwan yesterday, because Democratic Progressive Party and corruption and degeneration stood together, prevent the firing case from refering to people to sanction.
But, Ma Yingjiu should say this words several weeks ago . From day proposing firing, he should know , the firing case must be suffused with resisting green. This firing case not suspenseful, is in fact the political play that four major political parties of Taiwan performed under the flat popular morale instead , worth analysing carefully.
发表于 2006-6-26 21:28:18
发表于 2006-6-27 10:24:37
