【双语新闻】Indian economy

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印度应少说多做

　　2006年3月20日 星期一

　　印度应少说多做 Indian economy

　　现在是“印度世纪”，对吧？这是印度总理曼莫汉。辛格（Manmohan Singh）于2004年5月上任时许下的诺言。自从美国总统布什（George W. Bush）本月早些时候访问新德里，承诺美国这个世界唯一超级大国将与印度达成新的战略伙伴关系以来，这一夸张说法已进入超速运转状态。令人担忧的“超级大国症”，即认定印度本身注定将成为超级大国，最早于一年前发作。现在已十分盛行。




　　It is the “Indian century”， right？ That was the pledge by Manmohan Singh， prime minister， on taking office in May 2004. The hyperbole has gone into overdrive since George W. Bush visited New Delhi earlier this month and committed the world‘s sole superpower to making India its new strategic mate. Worrying outbreaks of “superpoweritis”– the belief that India is itself destined for superpower status – first emerged a year ago. The bug is now rampant.

　　每天都会有政府部长吹嘘新的“印-美”文明、印度经济的两位数增长潜力、以及印度将不可避免地崛起为超级大国。印度商务部长卡迈勒。纳特（Kamal Nath）就大吹特吹了一次，他说，印度人不仅比来访的英国板球队球艺更高超，而且英语也说得更好。

　　Not a day passes without government ministers crowing about the new “Ind-US” civilisation， the economy‘s double-digit growth potential and the inevitability of India’s own rise to superpower status. Kamal Nath， commerce minister， has a virulent bout of it， bragging that not only do Indians play better cricket than the touring English， but they even speak the language better too.

　　政府的沾沾自喜（在国内生产总值增长连续3年保持7%至8%之后）令人担忧。印度孟买30指数（Sensex）自今年年初以来上升了15%，目前直逼11000点大关，从房地产到艺术市场等各领域的资产价格都开始出现泡沫。在印度这头大象横冲直撞之际，投资者很应该考虑前面的潜在陷阱。

　　The complacency of the government – on the back of three consecutive years of 7-8 per cent GDP growth – is a cause for concern. The Sensex share index – up 15 per cent since the start of the year – is flirting with the 11，000 mark and bubbles are emerging in a wide range of asset prices from real estate to the art market. Investors would do well to consider the potential pitfalls in the path of the rampaging Indian elephant.

　　问经济学家有关印度取得两位数经济增长的最大障碍，就会发现答案永远是：基础设施、基础设施、基础设施。当然还有其它因素，但改善公路和机场则是赶上中国的必要条件。如果印度的基础设施能赶上中国，那么印度就可轻易取得10%的经济增长率。通用电气（GE）印度公司负责人斯科特。贝曼（Scott Bayman）称，假如政府“真正努力”，经济增长可达到12%.相比实施改革以保持9%至10%的增长率，印度部长们更喜欢沉浸在大会小会上的阿谀之辞中，他们构成真正的投资风险。辛格先生周六表示，要维持今后5年的持续增长，印度需要1.5万亿美元投资，包括逾700亿美元的外国直接投资。是少说多做的时候了。

　　Canvass economists about the biggest obstacles to double-digit growth and the answer is always： infrastructure， infrastructure， infrastructure. There are others， of course， but better roads and airports are the sine qua non for catching up with China. Match that country‘s infrastructure and India could easily do 10 per cent. If the government “really tried”， says Scott Bayman， head of General Electric in India， it might achieve 12 per cent. Ministers who prefer basking in flattery on the conference circuit to enacting reforms to make 9-10 per cent growth sustainable represent a real investment risk. Mr Singh， on Saturday， said India needed $1，500bn of investment， including more than $70bn FDI， to sustain its growth for the next five years. It is time for less conversation and a lot more action.