OPEC Influx May Send Crude Oil Futures Lower

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OPEC Influx May Send Crude Oil Futures Lower
《洛杉矶时报》: 欧佩克增产将压低油价



(中文大意)

　　据彭博财经资讯(Bloomberg)对交易商和分析人士的调查结果，纽约原油期货本周可能会因美国石油储备远远不断从欧佩克组织进口而价格下跌。

　　被访的49人中的三分之二，或67%预测原油期货价格将要下跌，11人认为价格会上升，12人预计油价不会出现变化。除伊拉克之外的具有配额的欧佩克10个成员国决定从上周四起将日产限额增加200万桶，达日产2550万桶，然后自8月1日起每日再增加50万桶产量。但沙特和尼日利亚上周已放出8月再增产可能无必要的信号。欧佩克产量达世界总产量三分之一。

　　欧佩克组织成员国将于7月21日在日内瓦聚会，轮值主席Purnomo Yusgiantoro称，7月会议再决定8月的产量已太迟。成员国在会议上将讨论9月的产量。

New York crude oil futures may fall this week as surging imports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries boost U.S. inventories, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts.

Twenty-three of 49 respondents in the survey, or 47%, predicted that oil futures would drop. Fourteen said prices would rise; 12 expected little change.

The 10 members of OPEC with quotas, all except Iraq, decided last month to raise their output quota by 2 million barrels to 25.5 million barrels a day as of last Thursday, and by a further 500,000 barrels a day Aug. 1. Saudi Arabia and Nigeria signaled last week that the August increase may be unnecessary. OPEC pumps about one-third of the world's oil.

\"Fundamentals are for weaker crude prices in the coming week — I think we could lose a dollar pretty easily,\" said Kurt Barrow, a Singapore-based energy consultant at Purvin & Gertz Inc. Violence in Iraq and Saudi Arabia \"is the wild card.\"

Crude oil for August delivery rose 2.2% last week but at the end slid 35 cents to $38.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are down 9.6% from an all-time high of $42.45 on June 2.

OPEC will meet in Vienna on July 21, at which time it will be too late to decide on output in August, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said. The group will discuss September's production level, he said.

\"Even if OPEC decides against the additional 500,000 barrels, supplies are ample and should remain in pretty good shape for the foreseeable future,\" said Marshall Steeves, an analyst with Refco Group in New York.

Weekend attacks in Saudi Arabia and Iraq have caused prices to soar three times since late April. The two countries hold about one-third of the world's proved oil reserves.

\"On the bullish side, there's the potential for the terrorist threat to reach Iraqi and Saudi oil facilities,\" said Tony Machacek, a broker with Prudential-Bache International Ltd. in London. OPEC is \"producing pretty much at capacity, and if there are disruptions to supplies, like a bomb in Iraq, prices may rise quickly.\"

Iraqi oil exports slumped to a seven-month low in June after sabotage to two southern pipelines cut shipments to terminals in the Persian Gulf.

From Bloomberg News