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发表于 2006-6-2 20:55:42
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Although politicians often manipulate the public sentiment by irrational propoganda, concerning the managerial level of politics, i.e., that level which only some elites can participate, rationality is always domonant. Thus anyone who knows something about the so-called game theory should not believe in the possibility of war between mainland China and Taiwan. The reason behind is very simple. For CCP in the mainland, the independence of Taiwan is intolerable; however, the status quo is tolerable. peaceful division is worse than violent unification, but peaceful unification, or peaceful division in reality is nevertheless better than violent unification. In contrast, for those who hope Taiwan to be independent, peaceful unification is worse than violent division, but the status quo is also tolerable and better than violent division. So for both sides, given that both peaceful unification and peaceful independence is not realistic, the status quo is better than a war, no matter what the result of war will be. So in the short run, the rational decision of both sides is to keep in peace, as long as none of them taks irrational action first. The President of Republic of China, Chen Shuibian, although used to be a hard-liner of Taiwan independence mvement, is just an opportunitist in my eyes. Even from the perspective of the fundamentalists of Taiwan independence, he is just a politician but not a stateman, i.e., he is not expected to do things that will change the next generation.
In the long-run, the things are just simpler. Given the increasing tendency the military power of mainland China, Taiwan will never be able to rival in the military aspect. Without any consideration economic developement and democratic progress in mainland, only military imbalance is quite enough to diminish the possibility of division. In that case, of course no war will be waged, because no one can expect more profit in a war than in any kind of possible peaceful solution. |
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