投资者考量微软未来

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投资者考量微软未来



　　微软过去三十年取得的成功使其成为股票市场上第三大企业，也使其创始人比尔-盖茨成为全球首富，但随着公司最辉煌的顶峰已经成为过去，投资者已经开始思考这家软件巨头的未来。


　　多年来，投资者一直将微软视作一支增长股，事实上其的确一直是高技术行业的晴雨表，但现在的微软日趋成熟，其产品早已占据软件市场主导地位，结果是其股价不再像十几年前那样持续攀升。标准普尔公司的分析师约翰-鲁迪表示：“现在一个主要的问题是，微软股价攀升的催化剂是什么？”


　　分析人士预计，微软未来几天公布财报时不会宣布令人惊讶的消息，但投资者却期待着微软能够找到增加利润的更多方法，因为新版Windows操作系统要到2006年才能面市。


　　目前微软现金储备将近530亿美元，其有可能收购其他公司，也有可能给投资者发放红利。鲁迪说，考虑到现在微软已经与美国司法部达成了反垄断和解，另外还和Sun等对手就技术专利纠纷达成和解，微软可能更愿意动用现金进行并购活动或是给股东分红。


　　分析人士称，微软的股价在众人期待已久的新版Windows面市之前可能会继续稳步攀升，但这一趋势并没有刺激股民现在就购买微软的股票。鲁迪说：“现在大家都认为微软的股票不会大幅攀升，所以都在持观望态度。”


　　NEW YORK  -- Microsoft Corp.'s successes over the last three decades have made it the third-largest company in the stock market and its founder the richest man in the world. But with its peak growth years behind it, investors are wondering what's ahead for the computing powerhouse.

　　For years, investors have classified Microsoft as a growth stock, and certainly it has been a bellwether for the high-tech sector. But the upstart that helped lead the tech revolution has become more mature, and with its products dominating the software market, its stock price no longer loops upward as it did in the company's youth.


　　\"It seems like their shareholder base is really turning over from a lot of the growth funds to a value base,\" said John Rudy, an analyst with Standard & Poor's. \"The big question is, what is the catalyst to get the shares going?\"


　　Microsoft is among more than 170 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 reporting quarterly earnings in the coming week. It's expected to post profits Thursday of 29 cents a share and revenues of $8.66 billion, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call


　　Results are also expected from such bellwethers as Pfizer Inc., American International Group Inc., Altria Group Inc. and Coca-Cola Co. Though most companies have either matched or beaten Wall Street's expectations so far this earnings season, the market's reaction has been muted. The prospect of higher interest rates has been an unwelcome distraction for investors, who are struggling through a correction that started in February.


　　Investors searching for further evidence that the economy is improving will be listening closely to forecasts for the rest of the year, including Microsoft's. The company may not make any surprise announcements, but investors are looking to it to find ways to increase its profits since the next version of its Windows operating system isn't due until 2006.


　　With almost $53 billion in cash and short term investments, Microsoft could go acquisition hunting, though its wrangling with regulators makes anything beyond a strategic niche purchase unlikely. It also could share more of its wealth with investors, either with a one-time special dividend or by raising its payout on an annual basis.


　　Now that it has dealt with a series of legal issues in the United States and abroad, the company may be willing to do just that, though probably not next week, Rudy said.


　　It recently settled patent and antitrust suits with Sun-Microsystems Inc., InterTrust Technologies and AT&T Corp., and last year it put to rest claims by Time Warner Inc. involving Netscape Communications. And most of the uncertainty surrounding its European Union antitrust case was dispelled last month, when EU regulators ruled against it, ordering sanctions and a big fine. Microsoft is appealing the decision.


　　Even without something to jog the stock in the near future, Microsoft's stock is likely to rise ahead of the much-anticipated launch of the new version of Windows. But that doesn't seem to be inspiring buyers now.


　　\"Everyone believes the stock is stuck in neutral. That really seems to be the expectation, and that's really not the case,\" said Rudy, noting that the company produced steady growth throughout the recent downturn.


　　A lethargic stock price -- now at $25.16, Microsoft hasn't traded near $40 since mid-2000 -- and the prospect of a higher dividend make the stock ever more appealing to value managers, such as Carl Peterson, president of Parkway Advisors in Abilene, Texas.


　　Just before the EU decision, as the market was sinking into its correction, Microsoft's share price fell so far, it landed in a list of out-of-favor stocks Peterson uses to build his firm's value equity portfolio. He ranks the stocks in the S& 500 based on past performance, then makes value picks from the bottom 125.


　　\"When we found it in our value list, ranked high, we were surprised ... it was great for us, because it bumped up our presence in the tech sector,\" Peterson said. \"I'm hoping they will continue to identify their dividend strategy. A cash-kind of return on your investment, yet the ability to have equity growth come out the company ... That's something we look for.\"


　　The Dow Jones industrials ended the week up 9.94, or 0.1 percent, finishing at 10,451.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 4.71, or 0.4 percent, to close at 1,134.61.


　　The Nasdaq tumbled 57.12, or 2.8 percent, during the week, closing Friday at 1,995.74.


　　The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller company stocks, closed the week down 14.51, or 2.4 percent, at 583.37.


　　The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, which tracks more than 5,000 U.S.-based companies, ended the week at 11,078.10, down 87.96 from the previous week. A year ago, the index was at 8,466.83.