世界杯预测：西班牙、巴西以及德国被看好夺冠

xdere

The 2018 FIFA World Cup began Thursday in Russia. Football fans have waited four years to see their favorite teams compete for the world championship.
2018年国际足联世界杯周四在俄罗斯开幕。足球迷们等了4年才看到他们喜欢的球队为世界杯冠军展开争夺。
It is the year's biggest sporting event. People across the world are already making their predictions for which team will win.
这是今年最大的体育赛事。世界各地的人们已经在预测哪支球队会夺冠。

Professional bookmakers create odds, which use large amounts of information to measure the probabilities for winners and losers. People use those odds to decide which teams to bet on. The bookmakers then pay off those bets.
专业博彩公司利用了大量信息计算出胜者和败者的概率，并开出了赔率。人们用这些赔率来决定投注哪支球队。随后博彩公司会清偿这些赌注。

For 2018, the bookmaker odds clearly favor Brazil to win the World Cup. Defending champion Germany is second, with Spain and France not far behind.
2018年，博彩公司的赔率显然看好巴西夺得世界杯冠军。卫冕冠军德国队位居第二，西班牙和法国的赔率也比较接近。

But this year, several groups have also turned to machine learning and artificial intelligence, or AI, for predictions.
但是今年，一些团队已经转向机器学习和人工智能来进行预测。

One of the groups is a research team from Germany. Andreas Groll of the Technical University of Dortmund led the group.
其中一个是来自德国的研究团队。多特蒙德工业大学的安德烈亚斯·格罗尔（Andreas Groll）领导了这个团队。

In a report on the results, Groll said his team used computers to simulate the whole World Cup competition 100,000 times. Machine learning was used to predict the expected number of goals made by each team in each game. The prediction method combined large amounts of information on the teams' abilities and individual players' performances from the past.
格罗尔在一份关于比赛结果的报告中表示，他的团队使用计算机对整个世界杯比赛进行了10万次模拟，并用到机器学习来预测每场比赛中每支球队的进球数。该预测方法结合了大量以往该球队能力和球员个人表现的信息。

So who did Groll's machines pick as the winner? The results chose Spain as the most likely World Cup champion, with a probability of 17.8 percent. Germany was next, followed by Brazil, France and Belgium.
那么格罗尔的机器认为谁会夺冠呢？研究结果认为西班牙最有希望夺冠，概率为17.8%。其次是德国、巴西、法国和比利时。

However, Groll's team said it could not predict Spain as the sure winner. This is because of the way the World Cup competition is structured.
然而，格罗尔的团队表示西班牙未必会成为最终的冠军，这是因为世界杯比赛的组织形式。

The reason Spain has a small lead over Germany is mostly because Germany has a higher chance of not making it to the quarterfinals. But if Germany does make it to the quarterfinals, the German team would actually be favored to beat Spain, the researchers said.
研究人员表示，西班牙比德国（夺冠概率）略高是因为德国很有可能进不了四分之一决赛。但是如果德国进了四分之一决赛，那么就看好德国队击败西班牙队。

In another recent prediction created through machine learning, the financial company Goldman Sachs chose Brazil as the 2018 World Cup winner. Germany was chosen as the team most likely to lose to Brazil.
在另一项通过机器学习产生的最新预测中，高盛金融公司认为巴西会夺得2018年世界杯，德国是最有可能（在决赛中）被巴西击败的球队。

The company said its method was based on 200,000 data models and 1 million simulations of the whole World Cup. Machines examined information on the teams and players' abilities, as well as past performances. In 2014, Goldman Sachs also predicted Brazil to win the World Cup. But Germany actually ended up winning the 2014 championship.
该公司表示其预测方法是基于20万个数据模型和100万场对整个世界杯比赛的模拟。机器考察了各支球队和球员的能力以及过往表现。2014年，高盛也预测巴西夺得世界杯，但是最终德国赢得了2014年的冠军。

Many people who are interested in the 2018 World Cup will surely take note of the numbers-based predictions by bookmakers and AI machines.
很多对2018年世界杯感兴趣的人肯定会注意到博彩公司和人工智能机器基于数字做出的预测。

But others might choose to believe the choices of a cat said to have psychic abilities. The cat, named Achilles, lives in Russia's Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg.
但是其他人可能会选择相信一只被认为通灵的猫的选择。这只名为阿基里斯的猫生活在俄罗斯圣彼得堡的冬宫博物馆。

Achilles officially works there as a mouse catcher. But some locals say the animal is also able to predict future happenings. So far, he has only predicted one World Cup match, the opening game between Russia and Saudi Arabia. When offered a choice between two containers of food, Achilles chose the one with a Russian flag.
阿基里斯在那里的正式任务是抓老鼠。但是一些当地人说这种动物还能预测未来发生的事情。到目前为止，它只预测了一场世界杯比赛，那就是俄罗斯和沙特之间的揭幕战。阿基里斯在两种食物容器中，选择了带有俄罗斯国旗的那个。

The choice could be seen as a good luck sign for Russia's team. Even though Russia is holding the World Cup, its team is rated the lowest of any of the 32 competing.
这个选择可以被视为俄罗斯队好运的迹象。尽管由俄罗斯举办这届世界杯，该队确是32支参赛队伍中排名最低的一个。

I'm Bryan Lynn.
我是布莱恩·林恩。