质疑目前亚当理论的中文译义

懒扎衣

俺不懂英文，在网上看到此文，就发到这里来了，希望对大伙有点用，文章如下：

有谁真正读过“亚当理论”？ 质疑目前亚当理论的中文译义
英文原版的？或完整的中译文？

有些重要的问题千万不能人云亦云。

这是一个老外对Adam Theory\" 评价。

The Adam Theory of Markets, or, What Matters Is Profit
Author
Welles Wilder, quoting a lot from Jim Sloman
Quick Summary
Rethinking one's approach to trading market motion.
Quick Opinion
Fun reading, but a trading method that will lose you money.

Note: a lot of \"Adam\" comes from one Jim Sloman, who was also the original developer for the \"Delta\" trading system. There are times when it is difficult to remember who is saying what; because of this, I attribute the whole of the text to Wilder. It makes my review easier to read. I mean Sloman no disrespect (his name doesn't appear as an author, either...).

\"What Matters is Profit,\" is the subtitle of this book, and it's a good description of the philosophy that Wilder writes about. He has two new ideas for approaching one's trading. The first idea is one of emotion and attitude, namely that in order to be successful one must \"surrender\" to the market. If one ceases to worry about what might happen or what should happen, he states, then one is free to concentrate on what the market is doing, which is where the profit will be made.

His second assumption is that markets have a tendency to keep doing whatever they are doing now. If they have recently been in an uptrend, then they will continue upwards. If they have been congesting sideways, then they will continue in their lack of direction. His contention is that bucking the trend, picking market reversals and other tactics that focus not on what the market is doing now, but what is hoped that it will do in the future, are dangerous and prone to failure.

He has an interesting fable near the beginning of the book in which a daughter is watching her father interpret markets. She is concerned about his agitation and distress, because he keeps predicting upward motion, and the market keeps going ever down. Every time he gives her reasons why the market is about to turn upwards, she says, \"I know, daddy, but right now it seems to be going down.\" Eventually, he gets her point that while he is attempting to pick a top, he is losing out on the profit that is to be had by following the trend.

Wilder then details a method for exploiting the concept of continuing behavior, in which one draws market motion for some amount of time in the past onto a clear transparency sheet, and then flips it across both horizontal and vertical axes to predict future market motion. The market motion in the past is flipped and aligned with the current market motion, creating sort of a double-mirror image. So, a small amount of choppiness followed by a long uptrend is copied and flipped to predict an uptrend twice as long as what has gone on before, followed by a small amount of choppiness at the upper end. He provides some charts as examples of the predictive ability of this approach.

The problem is that \"What Matters is Profit\" is about as tradeable as \"Buy Low, Sell High.\" And the motion-copying strategy is another perfect illustration of technical indicator failure. Markets continue to go as they have gone before, until they don't. In reality, there isn't any reliability connected to the method or its underlying concept. An uptrend that is halfway done will go the same distance. If it were possible to detect the mid-point of a trend, then one could use Adam Theory. If it were possible to detect ANY aspect of a trend, you could make a killing, but it's just not possible to identify any specific distance along a trend except in hindsight.

Are his examples real? Yes. Are there times when Adam Theory really works? Yes. Can you find examples in past market motion for any technical indicator, no matter how absurd? Yes. But that doesn't make it reliable or tradeable. Adam Theory is a nice idea, and it makes for good reading, but I can find so many examples of congestion that breaks out viciously and unpredictably, or trends that aborted, or chop followed by trend followed by no motion at all, that using this method as a trading system would be an expensive folly.

It is also fascinating to me that Wilder and Sloman, the creators of \"Adam,\" are also the creators of \"Delta\", which is nothing but a giant, complex strategy for picking minor, medium and major turning points. If Adam is all you need, then why bother with market turns when you are concerned with what the market is doing \"right now\"?

As far as the book's layout, it has a nice flow of general and specific information, with explicit ideas on stop management and prediction adjustment. As somebody who likes to just get a book and read it, cover to cover, I found it annoying that the first chapter (and excerpts here and there elsewhere) is dedicated to Jim Sloman And His Work. I understand that Welles likes him a lot, but I don't buy a book on technical analysis so that I can read fond stories about people. That's what fluff books are for...


这是另外一个老外对Wirler的介绍

J. Welles Wilder Jr. - Market Master
Neil A Costa



J. Welles Wilder Jr. stated his working life as a mechanical engineer, and remained an engineer for just seven years. This overlapped with his investing in the real estate market which he then did full time for a few years. His partners bought him out in the early 1970s.

He commenced 13 years of full-time market research and trading in his ‘retirement’. He became interested in buying silver, and concluded that futures were the best way to gain leverage and tried to learn all he could about futures markets.

The Contributions of J. Welles Wilder Jr. to Technical Analysis
Mr. Wilder has written many articles on trading, appeared on numerous radio and television programs, and conducted technical trading seminars in Asia, Australia, Canada, USA, and Europe. He also developed software through his company Trend Research, Ltd. Australia’s Dawn Bolton-Smith is proud to say she attended two of Mr. Wilder’s seminars in Sydney – in 1986 and 1992. She is also a keen user of the software he developed, ‘One Day at a Time’ (ODAT).

Welles Wilder is best known for his technical indicators – now considered to be core indicators in technical analysis software. These include Average True Range, the Relative Strength Index, Directional Movement and the Parabolic Stop and Reverse.

The following is a candlestick chart of News Corporation, showing Welles Wilder’s Parabolic S&R (dotted lines on the chart itself), his Directional Movement Index and his Relative Strength Index respectively.



Chart 1 – A Gann Analyst 3 Chart of News Corporation

Being a trader at heart, Mr. Wilder understood what were the real factors that determined whether a trader was likely to be successful or not. In an interview in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, he stated:

… I’ve found that the most important thing in trading is always doing the right thing whether or not you win or lose… this is market savvy… money management... I would go so far as to say that whether one makes money in the markets depends on whether or not one uses the proper money management – how much you make depends on where you enter and exit the markets.

(Wilder, J. Welles., ‘Wilder’s Back’, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, February 1986.)

J. Welles Wilder Jr wrote three books, New Concepts in Technical Trading (published in 1978), The Adam Theory of the Markets (1987), and The Delta Phenomenon (1991).

New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems
(Wilder, J. Welles Jr., New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, Trend Research, McLeansville, NC, 1978.)

First there were the masters – Dow, Gann, Elliott. Each advanced our knowledge of technical analysis.

Then there was a quantum leap. This quantum leap occurred in 1978 when J. Welles Wilder Jr. published his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.

In this book Wilder published six technical trading systems. The three considered to be the most significant were the Directional Movement Index, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Writing this book established Wilder's reputation as one of the world’s leading technical analysts.

The book is divided into 10 sections, as follows:

Section 1 - Basics, The Missing Part of Most Trading Plans
Section 2 - The Parabolic System
Section 3 - The Volatility Index, the Volatility System
Section 4 - The Directional Movement Concept, The Directional Movement System
Section 5 - The Momentum Concept, The Trend Balance Point System
Section 6 - The Relative Strength Index
Section 7 - The Reaction Trend System
Section 8 - The Swing Index, The Swing Index System
Section 9 - The Commodity Selection Index
Section 10 - Capital Management

The Adam Theory of Markets
(Wilder, J. Welles Jr., The Adam Theory of Markets or What Matters is Profit, Trend Research, McLeansville, NC, 1987)

The Adam Theory is about what will make a trader successful. This unusual book shows why the ideas possessed by many traders prevent them from being profitable traders. The book comes to a very simple, but vitally important conclusion about trading – the Adam Theory. Of course, you will not enjoy the book as much if I were to reveal the ‘secret’ in this article! I am sure you already know what it is – but maybe you do not appreciate its importance.

The Adam Theory of Markets is divided into 33 chapters:

1. Adam is...
2. A Fairy Tale
3. To Succeed in Markets We Must...
4. There really is a lot less trading than meets the eye
5. What Matters in Markets? - Price
6. 'Is' versus 'Should'
7. Avoid Arbitrariness
8. Trading Systems
9. What Matters in Markets? - Trend
10. What is a Trend
11. What is the Most Basic Form of repetition?
12. What does Exact Repetition Lead To?
13. What Leads to the Greatest Symmetry?
14. Projecting The Second Reflection
15. Constructing the Second Reflection Chart the Easy Way
16. What does the Prediction Contain?
17. Which Markets to Trade?
18. Review of Market Selection
19. How about Tops and Bottoms?
20. The Most Important Statement About Markets
21. Let Your Profits Run
22. What if we get Stopped Out?
23. Discipline
24. Review of Adam Theory
25. When do we Enter a Trade
26. Market Example - Eastman Kodak
27. Recap of the First Example
28. The Ten Trading Rules
29. The Ten Rules Expanded
30. Market Example - Eastman Kodak
31. Market Example – Coffee
32. Visualisation
33. The Playful Commodity Trader
Appendix

The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in all Markets
(Wilder, J. Welles Jr., The Delta Phenomenon, The Delta Society International, McLeansville, NC, 1991)

In the early 80's, Welles Wilder