DEFEAT IN POLL COULD FORCE ABE DEPARTURE

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Shinzo Abe might be forced to resign if his ruling party suffers a heavy defeat in next month's upper house elections, according to one of the Japanese prime minister's potential successors.

Sadakazu Tanigaki, finance minister in the previous administration, said in an interview with the FT last night: “The resignation of Abe is not out of the question, though we are doing our best to prevent it. But if we lost badly, it would be hard to pass legislation and so nothing would move forward.”

He added: “Historically, when the Liberal Democratic party has lost a lot of seats, somebody has been held accountable.”
Mr Abe goes into next month's election with his support rate in tatters and amid widespread public anger over the government's admission that successive administrations have lost 50m pension records, potentially jeopardising retirement benefits.

Half the upper house seats – 121 – will be contested next month, with most analysts predicting that Mr Abe will be safe if his party picks up 51 seats, leaving the junior coalition Komeito party to make up the difference.

But Minoru Morita, a political analyst, said the ruling party could be headed for a worse defeat than in 1998, when it won just 44 seats. That defeat, the second worst in the LDP's 50-year history, forced the resignation of Ryutaro Hashimoto, then prime minister. Mr Morita said the Liberal Democrats were even vulnerable in rural strongholds, where defeat would herald a national rout.

Mr Tanigaki, a social liberal and fiscal hawk who ran against Mr Abe in last September's contest for party head, agreed that defeat in rural areas was a distinct possibility. Japan's poorer regions had felt the pain, but not yet the benefits, of deregulation and fiscal tightening, he said. They tended to have more retirees and therefore more anger about the pensions fiasco.



有可能继任日本首相的谷垣祯一(Sadakazu Tanigaki)表示，如果首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)领导的执政党自民党在下月的参议院选举中惨败，安倍也许将被迫辞职。

曾在上届政府中担任财务大臣的谷垣祯一昨日在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“安倍辞职并非是不可能的，尽管我们在尽全力阻止这种情况发生。但如果我们遭遇惨败，立法就很难获得通过，那么一切都无法取得进展。”

他补充道：“从历史上看，在自民党丧失很多席位的时候，都会有人出来负责。”
在下月选举即将来临之际，安倍的支持率不断下降，而且公众普遍对政府感到愤怒，因为政府承认丢失了5000万份养老金记录，可能危及公众的退休福利。

日本参议院的半数席位(121个)将在下月改选，多数分析人士预计，如果自民党能获得51个席位，安倍的地位就将是稳固的，其余席位则由联合执政的公明党(Komeito)去赢得。

但政治分析家森田实(Minoru Morita)表示，执政的自民党可能会比1998年败得更惨。当时自民党仅赢得了44个席位，是其50年历史上败得次惨的一次，时任日本首相的桥本龙太郎(Ryutaro Hashimoto)被迫辞职。森田实表示，这一次，自民党甚至在农村大本营的地位也不是很稳固，而在农村的失败将预示着在全国全面溃败。

谷垣祯一同意，自民党很有可能在农村地区落败。谷垣祯一是一位社会民主人士，在财政方面则较为强硬，曾在去年9月与安倍竞争自民党领袖。他表示，日本这些相对贫穷的地区感受到了放宽管制和收紧财政政策带来的痛苦，而没有享受到相应的益处。在这些地区，退休人口往往更多，因此对养老金问题更感愤怒。