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提要：当前中国沪深两市股价已偏高，市盈率已达到上世纪90年代末美国互联网泡沫时期、或20年前日本、台湾股市泡沫时期的水平。不过，居民与企业仍大举进军。股市上的“投资收益”正在推动中国上市公司利润的猛增，构成了自我强化的良性循环。然而，如果股市走向发生逆转，这种强大的机制也会走向反面。应对股市过热，一是需要拓宽投资渠道，二是提高关于企业业绩信息的透明度，这样投资者才能有所比较。
（外脑精华·北京）目前，中国大陆股市中许多企业的市盈率已经很高。上一次出现如此高市盈率还是在上世纪90年代末美国互联网泡沫时期，而中国大陆周边地区出现这样的市盈率，则要追溯到20年前日本和台湾的股市泡沫。5月15日，中国第六大银行交通银行的股票在交易第一天就猛涨71%。目前其股价为预期每股收益的42倍，即使考虑到中国经济的强劲增长，这样的市盈率也颇为惊人。交行股票的一部分吸引力在于，全球巨头汇丰银行持有其股份，但汇丰自身的市盈率只有13倍。
股价虽高，散户与企业仍蜂拥入市
然而，高股价并没有吓走投机者。仅4月份一个月，中国就开设了近500万个新的股票交易户头，比去年全年的总数还多三分之二。面对低利率的银行帐户和高涨的股市，散户投资者大量涌入股市。在散户需求的推动下，中国股市今年以来已经上涨了一半，在过去的2年之中则攀升了250%。
不仅居民如此，中国企业也在大举进军股市。里昂证券中国研究部主任William Liu表示，股市上的“投资收益”正在推动中国上市公司利润增长。这样，股价的攀升就意味着企业盈利的增长，这就构成了一种自我强化的良性循环。然而，如果股市走向发生逆转，这种强大的机制也会走向反面。
拓宽投资渠道，提高信息透明度
中国政府深知，股市崩盘很可能引发社会动荡，因此其应对举措十分谨慎。5月11日，一批与政府关系良好的金融机构获准将国内资金投资于海外市场，尤其是香港市场。
政府也可以采取其他举措，其影响力会大得多，包括开放国家的资本项目，允许卖空活动，从而消除大陆和香港股市之间的价差。政府还可以进一步向散户投资者开放商业票据或高质量债券市场，从而为他们提供新的投资渠道。然而，诸如此类的举措都将是小规模的，因为政府担心损害到存贷款利差为银行创造的丰厚利润，而银行坏帐需要这些利润来填补。
要应对股市问题，最重要的或许应该是进一步向投资者开放关于企业经营业绩的信息。在这个领域，西方投资银行应该有所作为；和美国市场上投行的做法不同，西方投行在中国向公众披露的信息量很有限。事实上，除了价格走势之外，散户投资者几乎一无所知。
现在，中国散户投资者有了一种衡量股价的新方法——与猪肉价格相比。股票比一斤猪肉还便宜，就可以说明进入股市理所应当。对于散户来说，既然无法了解企业盈利的准确值，那么用“最后的晚餐”的成本来衡量股价，也就不足为奇了。
英文原文：
IN THE West when share prices go up, you are told to \"fill yer boots\". In China the advice might be \"fill yer face\". A new measure that Chinese retail investors use to justify entry into the booming stockmarket is that share prices in nominal terms are still cheap－at least compared with the price of a plate of pork.
But what's odd about that? Even standard measurements, such as price to earnings, have a surreal feel to them. Many companies trading on the Shenzhen and Shanghai bourses are at ratios last seen during the internet bubble of the late 1990s, or, closer to home, the Japanese and Taiwanese bubbles of two decades ago. Bank of Communications, China's sixth-largest bank, began trading on May 15th with a 71% leap on its first day. Its shares are now priced at 42 times expected earnings, a staggering level even given China's heady growth rate. One of its attractions is a stake held by HSBC, a global bank. HSBC trades at a meagre 13 times earnings.
High valuations do not deter punters. Five million new Chinese brokers' accounts were opened in April, two-thirds more than during the whole of last year. Retail demand, a result of individuals facing the simple choice of low-yielding bank accounts or booming stockmarkets, has helped push the market up by half this year and 250% in the past two years. Even housekeepers are reported to be leaving low-paid jobs to play the market.
Companies, too, are piling in. Earnings of Chinese-listed firms are being jet-propelled by “investment income”, observes William Liu, head of China research at CLSA Securities. That makes market movements blissfully self-reinforcing－higher share prices mean higher earnings－although of course it could work just as strongly in reverse, too.
China's government knows that a crash might well bring social upheaval, so it is gingerly trying to impose order. On May 11th a handful of politically connected institutions were granted permission to invest domestic funds outside the mainland, principally in Hong Kong.
Of far more weight would be for the authorities to open the country's capital account, and to allow short selling, which would wipe out the share-price discrepancy between China and Hong Kong. The government could also give retail investors more access to commercial paper, or high-quality bonds, so that they have an alternative to low-yielding bank accounts. However, it will permit only a trickle of each, because it fears cutting into the fat margins that banks earn from paying depositors next to nothing and lending at high rates－a margin that is needed to cover for the banks' bad loans.
Perhaps the most important change would be to allow investors more access to information on company performance. Western investment banks could play a role here; unlike their American counterparts, they restrict the amount of information they convey to the public. As it is, retail investors have little to go on except price movements; and if you are not sure what the earnings are, no wonder you compare prices with the cost of your last meal.
Feeding frenzy | | 来源：经济学家，2007.05.17 |
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发表于 2007-5-25 22:18:15