中国资金是否将涌向海外股市？

INVESTMENT FROM CHINA


Lex
Monday, May 14, 2007


Is
a wall of Chinese money about to hit global markets? On Friday regulators prised open the window and gave mainland investors their first opportunity to invest in foreign equities – raising the prospect that China will start decanting $4,400bn of bank savings into overseas markets.

That is some way off. Beijing has lifted restrictions on investing up to half the existing quotas for overseas investment – dubbed qualified domestic institutional investor, or QDII – in equities. That implies potential outflows of just $7bn-$9bn. Hong Kong's bourse, the obvious first port of call, can turn over more than that in a day. And even that amount may not be unleashed immediately. The attractions of, say, Hong Kong stocks pale when contrasted to the domestic market, up 48 per cent this year in local-currency terms.

Opportunities for meaningful arbitrage, too, are slim. The 40-odd stocks listed on both the domestic-currency A-share market and in Hong Kong trade on vastly differing multiples. China Life, for example, is 65 per cent more expensive in Shanghai. But the mechanics of QDII preclude stock selection; instead investors will have to buy funds or similar products sold by the banks. Given the inaugural role of these funds, the emphasis will be on conservatism and quality rather than exploiting valuation gaps.

Nonetheless, the move marks another milestone on the road to a fully convertible currency. It also demonstrates the extent of pressure on Beijing both to offset surging capital inflows and to cool the domestic stock market bubble. The stock market performance is almost wholly driven by captive liquidity, so broadening the investible universe would remove some of the froth. For now, however, the numbers are too small to have much impact on either front – or on overseas markets.


中国资金将涌向海外股市？


英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2007年5月14日 星期一


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球市场是否将迎来一股中国资金洪流？上周五，中国监管机构把窗开启了一条缝，让内地投资者第一次有机会投资海外股票。此举唤起了人们的希望，即中国将开始把4.4万亿美元的银行储蓄分流至海外市场。

这还为时尚早。对中国的“合格的国内机构投资者”(QDII)而言，虽然政府将它们对海外股票的投资限额放宽到现有配额的一半，但这意味着可能只有70亿到90亿美元资金流向海外。香港股市显然是首选目的地，那里用不了一天就能消化掉这些资金。而即使是这个数量，可能也不会立即释放出来。相比于中国内地以人民币计价的A股市场，香港股市的吸引力较小。今年中国内地股市已上涨48%。

进行有意义套利交易的机会也很小。同时在内地A股市场和香港两地上市的企业有40多家，它们两地股价所对应的市盈率相差非常大。比如，中国人寿(China Life)上海的股价要比其港股高出65%。但QDII机制排除了投资者挑选股票的机会，他们只能购买银行出售的基金或类似产品。考虑到这些基金刚刚推出，投资重点将是保守型策略和股票质量，而非赚取估价差价。

虽然如此，此举仍是通往人民币自由兑换道路上的又一个里程碑。它同时表明，中国政府正承受巨大压力：既要冲销巨额的海外资金流入，又要挤压国内股市的泡沫。中国国内股市的上涨几乎完全是由资金驱动的，因此拓宽投资渠道将消除一些泡沫。但从目前看，涉及的资金额太小，对上述两方面压力，或者对海外市场都无法产生太大影响。