|
|
提要：中国政府要降服经济巨龙，还面临很大困难。许多人将经济持续高涨归咎于人民币币值的低估，其实很大一部分原因在于一些关系到中国经济基本结构的因素，包括企业部门的储蓄过剩、制造业网络的全球化以及每年至少创造1500万个工作岗位的艰巨任务。要解决这些问题，中国应采取多方面举措，但这需要多年时间。
（外脑精华·北京）高速增长的中国经济如同磁悬浮列车一般。经济高增长也许是许多发展中国家梦寐以求的，但这却令中国面临着决策难题。中国政府一直力图让经济减速，以避免上世纪90年代中期的大起大落重演。但经过3年的努力，却仍没有实现这个目的。
中国政府要降服经济巨龙，还面临很大困难。许多人将其归咎于人民币币值的低估，其实很大一部分原因在于一些关系到中国经济基本结构的因素，包括企业部门的储蓄过剩、制造业网络的全球化以及每年至少创造1500万个工作岗位的艰巨任务。
中国经济成就非凡
30年前，中国还是一个非常贫穷的国家，此后却开始了却突然开始了持续的增长，这种情况在世界上是前所未有的。30年来，中国经济的年均经济增长率高达9.6%，目前已成为世界第四大经济体，明年大致就可以超过德国升至世界第三位。此外，中国是世界第三贸易大国，去年的外贸总额达1.76万亿美元。
中国大陆的外汇储备高达1.2万亿美元，居世界第一位。这意味着其已成为世界最大债权经济体，并且拥有雄厚的资本实力。在低成本劳动力和火热中国经济的吸引下，外国企业向中国投入了巨额直接投资，去年中国吸引了600亿美元FDI，贸易顺差则创下1770亿美元新高。
领导层为什么忧虑
虽然中国经济总体表现如此优异，但也存在很多问题：人均GDP只有2000美元；中国大城市与农业地区的收入水平存在巨大差异；多年的高速增长导致环境恶化；对于一个拥有13亿人口的国家来说，创造新就业机会以及提供足够社会福利的压力是巨大的。
正如中国领导人所说，中国仍然是发展中国家。对于数千万个刚刚能够维持温饱的中国家庭来说，通胀率飙升或经济泡沫破灭绝对会是一场灾难。
国企高利润导致货币政策效果不大
目前，中国需要让固定资产投资减速。要实现这个目的，降低贷款增速会有所帮助。但问题在于，占据企业部门半壁江山的国有企业利润增长率普遍保持两位数的水平，而它们无需像西方大型上市公司那样支付红利。这样，在汽车、钢铁、水泥、建筑等存在过剩的行业中，现金充裕的国企将继续保持其投资势头。
中国的储蓄水平极高，国民储蓄率达到惊人的50%，企业部门的留存利润对此起到了很大作用。经济学家樊纲指出，由于国家不要求国企支付红利，因此它们占有了国民收入的5%－10%。
人民币升值难以实现贸易均衡
中国或许可以让人民币进一步升值，但此举对抑制顺差的作用有限。原因主要有两方面：首先，中国消费者的消费能力普遍不强；第二，大陆是跨国公司的最终组装平台。
中国的贸易顺差之所以增长迅速，一个重要原因就在于普通中国居民难以购买大量外国产品。虽然北京、上海、深圳等沿海大城市消费非常旺盛，但中国内地仍有7亿人口无力购买高级轿车和名牌提包。中国之所以不愿让经济大幅减速，就是因为这部分国民将深受其害。中国需要把经济的高速增长保持到巨大的收入差距消失之时。
此外，目前中国约有60万家外资企业。中国的大型出口商之中，有很多是台资企业或日本、美国、欧洲的外资企业。这些企业进口产品，利用大陆的低成本劳动力进行组装，而后将手机、电脑、汽车等产成品打上“中国制造”的标记，出口到世界各地。这些产品计入中国出口，但事实上它们是用世界各地生产的零部件组装而成的。因此，中国政府不可能命令本田或诺基亚减少其大陆企业的出口水平。而且，美国的贸易强硬派正在考虑的贸易制裁政策最终将损害在华外资企业的利益。
中国的政策选择
短期之内，中国应转移税收优惠的方向，将其重点由现金充裕的企业部门转向居民部门，以刺激消费。
此外，中国还需要对保持着贷款和支出势头的银行和地方政府加强控制。但如果经济过热，这种做法可能会对整体经济构成风险。另一项必要改革是逐步放开人民币汇率、利率和资本流动。通过这方面的改革，市场力量将能够通过价格信号，向政府和企业领导人传递关于经济何时应该加速、何时应该减速的信息。
然而，要推行这些举措还需要多年时间。很自然，中国政府更为关注的是本国国民、而不是处境优越的美国中产阶级的生活水平。中国或许可以让人民币大幅升值，从而在根本上改善对美贸易顺差。中国也可以采取足够的行动，以避免美国的贸易制裁，但这种做法却有可能摧毁中国脆弱的社会平衡。正如樊纲所言，这关系到中国的亿万农民工。
英文原文：Why Taming the China Dragon Is Tricky
Slowing down China's high-speed economy is devilishly hard to do, and may even be beyond Beijing's control
It's a problem a lot of developing countries would die for. Yet Beijing faces a policy quandary of the highest order. China's $2.6 trillion economy, which blew away market expectations and clocked 11.1% growth in the first quarter, is rushing along like some blisteringly fast, runaway maglev train. Chinese President Hu Jintao's economic team in Beijing has been trying to tap the brakes to avoid a reprise of the painful boom-and-bust scenario that hit the country in the mid-1990s, yet hasn't managed to do so despite three years of effort.
China's seemingly unstoppable surge was a big topic on the podiums and in the hallways at the 2007 Boao Forum for Asia, a gathering of regional leaders and executives held in the southern province and resort island of Hainan on Apr. 20-21. Another prime subject: the global economic risks of a China that might jump the rails.
While China's restrictive currency policy that has kept the yuan relatively cheap gets much of the blame, Beijing is having trouble wrestling with this economic beast for lots of reasons that cut to the basic structure of China's economy. Among them is a massive savings glut in the corporate sector, the globalization of manufacturing networks, and the still vast developmental needs of an economy that must generate 15 million-plus jobs annually to avoid widespread joblessness and social unrest. Here is a quick guide to some of the issues:
Just how strong is the Chinese economy right now?
The world has never seen such a sudden and sustained rise of an economy that was so desperately poor just three decades ago. China has averaged 9.6% growth rates for 30 years and is now the fourth-biggest economy in the world－and likely will overtake Germany as No. 3 in the next year or so. It's the third-biggest trading nation: Two-way trade between China and the rest of the world hit $1.76 trillion last year.
China's nearly $1.2 trillion stockpile of foreign currency is the biggest on the planet, a reflection of the mainland's role as the biggest creditor economy and massive capital power. Lured by cheap labor and a white-hot Chinese domestic economy, foreign companies pumped about $60 billion in direct investment last year, and the country's global trade surplus came in at a record $177 billion. \"No nation has moved as fast as China in establishing a global footprint,\" marveled Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz at the Boao gathering.
Sounds like party time. Why are Chinese leaders worried?
Lost in all the breathless talk about China's overall economic performance is the cold, hard reality that the country's per capita gross domestic product is only $2,000 per person. There are huge income imbalances between China's big-city and rural provinces, years of rapid development have ravaged the environment, and the pressure to create fresh jobs and provide adequate social welfare policies is awesome in a country that is home to 1.3 billion people, about one-fifth of humanity.
\"China remains a developing economy that has a long way to go before it can achieve modernization,\" says Wu Bangguo, chairman of China's National People's Congress standing committee. A big runup in inflation or an economic bubble that bursts would be absolutely catastrophic for hundreds of millions of Chinese families barely making ends meet－not to mention for Hu and his comrades running the show in China's one-party Communist regime.
Why doesn't Beijing just ratchet up interest rates to cool things off?
China did so in March, when the People's Bank of China increased a key benchmark, the one-year interest rate, by 27 basis points, to 6.39%. The one-year deposit rate was nudged up by the same amount, to 2.79%. It was the third such interest-rate hike in the past 12 months－and one or two more credit tightening moves are likely in 2007.
Yet here's the thing: China needs to slow down investment in factories and public works projects, which drive 40% of overall gross domestic product growth. Slowing down loan growth helps, but not in a country where all manner of state-owned companies （about 50% of the corporate sector） are enjoying double-digit profit growth and don't have to pay dividends like big publicly traded companies in the West. They are awash in cash and will keep investing into overcrowded sectors like autos, steel, cement, and construction.
China has an enormous pile of savings （the national savings rate is an awesome 50%）, and the retained earnings the corporate sector is now generating is a big reason for this. Gang Fan, an economist and president of the Beijing-based National Economic Research Institute, points out that 5% to 10% of the national income the economy generates is now getting socked away by state-owned companies because the government doesn't require a dividend payment, which publicly traded foreign companies have to pay to shareholders. \"It's quite a serious problem,\" he says, regarding the efforts by Beijing to slow things down.
What about throwing some ice water on the export sector by letting the yuan appreciate?
Beijing financial authorities probably could do more in this area, but it is not a magic bullet for two reasons: the weak consuming power of most individual Chinese consumers and the mainland's critical role as a final assembly platform for global companies. One big driver of China's rapidly expanding trade numbers is that ordinary Chinese families aren't spending enough on foreign goods.
True, there is plenty of conspicuous consumption in prosperous coastal cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, but there are also 700 million Chinese in the hinterland who don't buy Rolls-Royce Phantom sedans and Gucci handbags. China is reluctant to risk a major slowdown because these folks would get crushed. Beijing needs to keep the economy stoked in high-speed mode until China's vast income gap closes more. \"The income disparity is behind the low consumption,\" figures Yifu Lin, a professor and director of the China Center for Economic Research at Beijing University （see BusinessWeek.com, 4/30/07, \"China's Cautious Consumers\"）.
Consider, too, that some of the biggest exporters out of China are actually foreign companies from Taiwan, Japan, the U.S., and Europe. There are some 600,000 overseas-funded companies operating in China. They import goods, assemble them on the mainland with cheap labor, slap on the \"Made in China\" label, and then ship mobile phones, desktop computers, and sedans to the rest of the world. These products get counted as Chinese exports but are really pieced together with components from around the world.
China can't really order Honda （HMC） or Nokia （NOK） to export less out of China. And the kind of trade sanctions being contemplated by trade hawks in the U.S. would ultimately hurt foreign corporate interests in China, too. \"This is a problem of economic globalization,\" not just Chinese policies, reckons Yongtu Long, a former Chinese trade negotiator and secretary general of the Boao Forum.
What's the way out of all of this?
Short term, China needs to boost private consumption by shifting tax breaks away from the cash-rich corporate sector and toward Chinese families. A stronger social safety net－more affordable health care and education and secure pensions－would give them more confidence in their futures and get them spending more.
Beijing also needs to crack down on banks and local governments that keep lending and spending, despite the risks to the entire country if the economy overheats. Phased-in liberalization of the yuan, interest rates, and capital flows is another needed reform. This would allow market forces to send price signals to policymakers and executives alike about when to slow down and speed up.
Yet this is going to take many years, if not a decade, to realize. Chinese authorities, naturally enough, are far more concerned about the living standards of their own people than those of the comfortable middle class in the U.S. They probably will do just enough to avert trade sanctions from the U.S. It would take a dramatic currency shift to really improve the trade balance with the U.S.－but that would risk destroying China's fragile social balance. From China's perspective, \"it's about hundreds of millions of rural workers,\" says Chinese economist Fan.
Bremner is Asia Regional Editor for BusinessWeek in Hong Kong.
来源：商业周刊，2007.04.23，作者：Brian Bremner |
|
发表于 2007-5-2 23:44:53