人民币不复投资避风港？
Last week the renminbi did something it had not done for years – it shocked the market.上周，人民币做了一件多年来都没做到的事情——它震动了市场。
During the final three trading sessions of the week, the Chinese currency dropped as much as 1.3 per cent against the US dollar, marking its biggest three-day fall since 2011. The renminbi is now 0.6 per cent weaker against the dollar than it was at the start of the year.
在上周的最后3个交易日，人民币兑美元贬值超过1.3%，创下2011年以来最大的3日跌幅。现在，人民币兑美元汇率比年初低了0.6%。
While the percentage decline may appear small compared with some of the recent double-digit swings in other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso or Kazakh tenge, a move of such magnitude in the renminbi is highly unusual.
虽然看上去不如阿根廷比索或哈萨克斯坦坚戈等新兴市场货币近期的两位数波动那样剧烈，但这样大幅的变动，对人民币而言仍属罕见。
It could also spell trouble for investors. After years of ultra-low volatility thanks to the managed peg against the dollar, the renminbi has often been the subject of large, highly-leveraged positions for investors viewing it as an effective one-way bet. ANZ’s Patrick Perret-Green said the sell-off had left some speculative investors with a “very bloody nose”.
这还可能给投资者带来麻烦。多年来中国实行的汇率制，是管理下的与美元挂钩制，汇率波动极小，投资者因此常将人民币单边升值视为稳赚不赔的买卖，借高杠杆积累了大量多头。澳新银行(ANZ)的帕特里克•佩雷特-格林(Patrick Perret-Green)称，最近一波抛售让一些投机者“鼻青脸肿”。
Benoit Anne of Société Générale described a straight bet on renminbi appreciation as by far “the most overcrowded position in the EM FX universe”, something that is now likely to change.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的伯努瓦•阿内(Benoit Anne)表示，单边押注人民币升值，一直以来是“新兴市场外汇领域最为拥挤的头寸”。但这种局面很有可能正在改变。
The sharp move followed a period during which the offshore renminbi rate had been trading at an increasing premium to the onshore rate. That split – a permanent feature of the market – is something made possible by China’s strict controls on its capital account.
在此次大幅贬值之前，人民币的离岸汇率相对在岸汇率的溢价不断升高。这种溢价一直以来长期存在，主要是因为中国严格管控资本账户。
Global investors usually take bets on the currency through its Hong Kong iteration, known by the shorthand CNH. Within China, companies and investors use the official onshore rate, or CNY.
境外投资者一般通过在香港这个离岸市场押注于人民币，在那里，人民币被缩写为CNH。而在中国内地，企业和投资者使用的是官方在岸汇率，代码为CNY。
Early last week, the CNH rate had reached its biggest spread over the CNY rate since 2010, suggesting that international enthusiasm for the renminbi had overtaken that from within China itself.
上周早些时候，CNH与CNY汇差达到2010年以来最高值，意味着国际投资者对人民币的追捧热情大大超过了中国国内对它的兴趣。
Currency analysts say this widening gap may have prodded the People’s Bank of China into action. The central bank sets the daily fixing rate around which the renminbi is permitted to fall or gain 1 per cent a day, and last week it guided the onshore currency weaker through higher fixes.
外汇分析师表示，汇差扩大可能会促使中国人民银行(PBoC)采取行动。作为中国央行，中国人民银行每日为人民币设定“定盘价”，允许汇率在这一价格上下1%的区间内波动。上周它调高了定盘价，引导在岸人民币贬值。
Some believe that the move by the PBoC to damp appreciation expectations is part of its wider, long-held aim of introducing more two-way volatility into the market.
一些人认为，中国央行此举意在抑制人民币升值预期，这符合它一个更长期目标，即加大汇率的双向波动。
It could also be an attempt to bring the onshore and offshore rates together before the central bank widens the daily trading band, something it has promised to do soon. The band was last changed in April 2012, when it was doubled from 0.5 per cent.
中国央行也有可能试图通过此举减小在岸与离岸的人民币汇差，为扩大人民币每日波动区间做准备。此前中国央行曾承诺将很快扩大这个区间。中国上次调整这一波动区间是在2012年4月，将它从定盘价上下0.5%扩大至上下1%。
“It could well be the case that the Chinese authorities are trying to push the onshore spot rate closer towards the fixing rate. This in turn could pave the way for a widening of the daily trading band”, Jonathan Cavenagh, FX analyst at Westpac, wrote in a note to clients. “Widening the band when the onshore spot rate is closer to the fixing rate is probably a more optimal outcome for the authorities, as it may prompt less speculation from the market.”
西太平洋银行(Westpac)汇率分析师乔纳森•加文纳(Jonathan Cavenagh)在写给客户的报告中表示：“很可能正在发生的是，中国当局正努力推动在岸人民币即期汇率更接近中间价，从而为扩大日交易区间铺平道路。对中国当局来说，在即期价格更接近中间价时扩大交易区间，可能是一个更为理想的时机，因为这可以减少市场投机。”
Weaker economic data out of China may also have played its part in the sell-off. Last week HSBC’s flash index of manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in seven months, a sign that the country’s export engine is yet to fire up this year. Sentiment towards China has also been hit by growing troubles in the country’s vast shadow banking sector.
中国经济数据的疲弱也可能对人民币下跌起到了一定作用。汇丰银行(HSBC)上周发布的最新制造业活动指数降至7个月以来的最低水平，表明中国出口引擎今年仍未启动。中国庞大的影子银行体系问题日益显现，也影响了投资者对中国的信心。
Many analysts believe the longer-term story of renminbi appreciation remains intact. HSBC still expects the renminbi to reach Rmb5.98 against the dollar by the end of the year, equivalent to about a 2 per cent gain from Monday’s spot rate.
许多分析师相信，人民币升值的长期前景依然没有改变。汇丰仍然预期人民币兑美元汇率到今年年底将达到1美元兑5.98元人民币，与周一的即期汇率相比，相当于升值约2%。
And unlike in previous periods of renminbi weakness – such as in the summer of 2012 – this most recent bout has not been accompanied by large capital outflows from the country.
与早期人民币贬值（比如2012年夏季那次）不同的是，最近的这次贬值没有伴随着大规模的资本外流。
If anything, the opposite is true – the most recent data showed that money continued to pour in, with China’s trade surplus growing by $32bn in January.
甚至可能正好相反——最近的数据显示，资金还在持续流入中国，且今年1月份中国贸易顺差增加了320亿美元。
However, some believe that the apparent shot across the bow by the PBoC means that the days of low volatility are finally be coming to an end.
然而，一些人相信，中国央行发出的明显信号，意味着人民币汇率低波动的日子将趋于结束。
“Based on how the has been trading over the past couple of days, it is clear to me that the Chinese currency is no longer a safe haven,” Société Générale’s Mr Anne wrote in a report.
法国兴业银行的阿内在报告中写道：“从（离岸人民币）过去两天的交易来看，我认为人民币显然不再是安全的投资产品。”
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