新浪微博用户增速创历史新低
As China’s Twitter-like Sina Weibo microblog prepares for a New York listing, its management is racing to figure out how the service can maintain its relevance amid a government crackdown on dissent and stiff competition from rivals.在新浪微博(Sina Weibo)准备赴纽约上市之际，新浪管理层正在努力解决一个问题，即如何能在政府打压互联网言论和对手激烈竞争的双重压力下，维持新浪微博的市场地位。新浪微博是中国的“类Twitter”服务。
The numbers of users on the microblog run by internet group Sina grew last quarter at the slowest pace in the history of the service, said Charles Chao, Sina chief executive.
新浪首席执行官曹国伟(Charles Chao)周二称，上一季度，新浪微博用户增长速度为历史最慢。
The company’s future depends on turning that round, said Mr Chao, although the microblog overcame slow user grow to record its first quarterly profit – of $3m – from improved advertising revenue and income from others sources including the sale of data on user behaviour.
曹国伟表示，公司的前景取决于能否扭转这一局面。不过，新浪微博克服了用户增长放缓的不利影响，首次实现季度盈利。这300万美元的盈利来自广告收入的增加，以及销售用户行为数据等业务带来的收入。
“The competition in mobile and the social space intensified,” said Mr Chao. “It is imperative that we increase our market space in mobile in order to stay competitive.”
“移动和社交领域的竞争加剧，”曹国伟说。“为维持竞争力，我们必须增加在移动领域的市场。”
The number of daily average users grew 4.2 per cent from about 59m in September to 61.4m in December, said Mr Chao. A recent nationwide survey by a government-affiliated research group of microblogging in China found a decrease in the number of people on the sites, which Sina said reflected a decline in users of other microblogs.
曹国伟表示，新浪微博日活跃用户数从去年9月的约5900万增长至12月的6140万，增幅4.2%。一家中国政府下属的微博研究机构近期开展全国性调查，发现各家微博用户总量呈下降趋势。新浪认为，这一数据表明其竞争对手的微博用户正在下降。
In an hour-long call with analysts, the company failed to mention that it was seeking to spin off the microblog service from its other online portal site, although multiple people familiar with the situation have confirmed that Sina plans to list the platform in New York, with a valuation target of up to $8bn.
在与分析师长达一小时的电话会议中，新浪没有提及将分拆其微博业务，但多位知情人士证实，新浪计划让新浪微博在纽约上市，估值高达80亿美元。
But industry analysts suggested the company might have a tough time pitching itself to investors.
但行业分析师称，新浪要想让投资者买账，可能没有那么容易。
The biggest threat: Tencent. The company, China’s largest internet group by market capitalisation, makes the popular app WeChat, which started as a Whatsapp-like chat app but is now branching out into ecommerce, payments and gaming. Its popularity is a factor in Sina Weibo’s struggling user numbers.
最大的威胁来自腾讯(Tencent)。作为中国市值最高的互联网公司，腾讯开发了热门应用微信(WeChat)，它最初是类似于WhatsApp的聊天应用，但现已涉足电商、支付和游戏。微信的走红是新浪微博用户数量萎靡的一个原因。
Another threat comes from Beijing, which has long been wary of netizens’ use of Weibo to vent about government malfeasance or organise protests against corruption or environmental pollution. Sina employs staff to erase sensitive posts.
另一威胁来自政府。中国网民在新浪微博上表达对政府治理不力的不满，或组织针对腐败或环境污染的抗议活动，对此中国政府一直十分警惕。新浪雇佣了一批员工，负责删除敏感微博。
Late last year, the government stepped up its crackdown on dissent when it arrested a prominent internet commentator and issued legal rulings that individuals could be prosecuted for spreading rumours or defamation if their posts went viral.
去年后半年，政府加强了对互联网异议的打压，逮捕了一位知名的网络评论人士。中国还颁布了法规，如果微博内容被广泛传播，发布者可能会被指控传播谣言或诽谤。
“The timing does seem a little odd,” said Duncan Clark, chairman of Beijing advisory group BDA China.
“上市时机确实有点奇怪，”北京咨询公司BDA China的邓肯•克拉克(Duncan Clark)说。
One possible attraction for investors, said Mark Natkin of technology advisers Marbridge Consultancy, would be that a spun-out Weibo could be an attractive acquisition target.
科技咨询公司Marbridge Consulting的马克•纳特金(Mark Natkins)表示，可能会吸引到投资者的一点是，剥离后的新浪微博可能成为诱人的收购目标。
Ecommerce group Alibaba already holds 18 per cent of Sina Weibo and has an option to increase that to 30 per cent. Alibaba, preparing for its own IPO, has been splashing out on deals in the past year as it shores up its position against Tencent, and Sina’s user data could be attractive.
电子商务公司阿里巴巴(Alibaba)已持有新浪微博18%的股份，并有权增持到30%。正准备首次公开募股(IPO)的阿里巴巴去年大举收购，以巩固自身地位，抵御腾讯的挑战，而新浪掌握的用户数据可能对它很有吸引力。
“This is partially a play that they’re going to get acquired,” said Mr Natkin.
纳特金表示：“这最终可能是为了一个结果，就是新浪微博被收购。”
Spinning out Weibo could also give management a freer hand to be “more aggressive” in trying to change the platform as mobile user behaviour changes, said C Ming Zhao, lead analyst with 86Research.
八六证券研究(86Research)的首席分析师赵春明表示，分拆新浪微博可以赋予新浪管理层更大自由，能使之“更积极地”根据移动端用户行为的变化调整企业构架。
Sina on Tuesday warned that margins would to come under pressure this year as the group invested in mobile internet.
新浪周二警告称，由于公司大举投资移动互联网，今年利润率可能承压。
For full-year 2013 net revenue was up 26 per cent to $665m, with net income at $45.1m, up from $31.7m in 2012.
新浪2013全年净营收增长26%至6.65亿美元，净利润达4510万美元，高于2012年的3170万美元。
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