摩根斯坦利：流动性决定大中华区经济表现
提要：展望2007年，大中华经济圈的经济表现将取决于流动资金供应状况，而中国、香港、台湾对流动性需求又不尽相同。中国在经济发展中需要解决流动性过剩问题，香港经济的全面复苏得益于充裕的流动性，而台湾经济则因国内资本大量外流而严重依赖国外资本的流入。不过，工业化国家通胀压力的抬头增加了这些地区紧缩银根的风险。一旦出现更可怕的全球经济滞胀局面，全球流动性的大幅萎缩将对整个大中华区经济造成沉重打击。（外脑精华·北京）流动性的走势似乎已成为主宰大中华经济圈经济表现的决定性要素。流动性和各经济体的关系特点不尽相同，我们将对这些特点逐一进行分析。
大陆需解决流动性过剩问题
中国大陆需要解决流动性过剩问题。中国政府一直宣称宏观紧缩措施已取得成效，过去几个月行政调控措施已使经济增长势头放缓。不过，中国尚未解决经常项目盈余和资本流入导致的流动性过剩这一根本问题。由于借贷资金成本依然偏低，中国仍然面临经济过热和投机性投资活动再度抬头的风险。近日中国人民银行已将政策重心转向对流动性的管理，采取了提高准备金率和发行债券的举措。2006年，中国人民银行先后两次提高利率、三次上调人民币存款准备金率。同时，央行还通过发行债券来回笼银行系统的流动资金。不过，这些措施尚不足以冲销国际收支盈余增长带来的流动性过剩。
准备金率提升一个百分点可以使央行冻结银行系统3200亿元的流动性。但截至九月底，央行吸纳金融机构的存款总额已高达3.8万亿元，占存款总额的11.6%，超过了法定准备金的要求。换言之，9%的法定准备金率难以遏制流动性的膨胀。实际上，央行在2003年8月首次出台紧缩政策后，随即在2003年4季度大幅提升存款准备金率，使2003年4季度至2004年3季度的信贷增速明显放缓。但2005年初开始准备金率再度逐步回落，纵容或可能对信贷再次加速增长起了推波助澜的作用。
由于提高准备金率未能发挥其约束力，因此，实现了的流动性冲销规模（实际准备金增加和债券发行量）远远低于希望达到的规模，也远远低于国际收支盈余。2005年中国国际收支盈余为2070亿美元，而通过提高存款准备金率和发行债券回笼的资金只有1460亿美元，为国际收支盈余的71%。 2006年，回笼的资金总量依然不足，2006年上半年的资金回笼率为76%（国际收支盈余为1221亿美元，回笼资金为920亿美元），2006年3季度这一比率下滑至59%，（外汇储备为468亿美元，回笼资金为274亿美元），从而使 2005年以来累计未回笼的资金总额增至1100亿美元。
将冲销对国际收支盈余的影响进行量化，有助于解释为什么至今货币紧缩措施尚未有效提高信贷成本。我们认为，提高借贷成本对防止盲目重复性投资活动将起到至关重要的作用。近几个月债券发行速度明显放缓，表明央行仍不希望大幅升息。我们认为，未能彻底回笼过剩流动性，为中国创造了更为宽松的货币环境，使信贷、投资及整体经济活动随时可能反弹。尽管政府的政策目标仍然锁定在减缓经济增速，但在冲销不充分的情况下，国际收支盈余滋生的流动性过剩将使调控效果大打折扣。
香港经济复苏得益于流动性繁荣
香港经济复苏得益于流动性的大规模流入，但需防范流动性出现大起大落。流动性供应状况和资产市场表现对香港现实经济活动具有重大影响。今年这方面的影响因大陆企业在香港证券市场大规模上市而进一步凸显。这些上市活动使以港元计价的香港金融资产规模大幅膨胀，货币增速远远超过经济增速。银行系统通过增持国外净资产的方式吸纳了大量外资（在截至2006年10月的12个月中吸纳的资金为250亿美元），促使近几个月港币的存贷比呈逐步下降趋势，带动利率走低（与美元利率相比），进一步推动了资产市值及收益的攀升。
近年来，受中国对国际资本需求增长的驱动，香港金融资产规模一直呈上涨趋势。资产市场的表现并未直观地反应出香港本地经济基本面情况，相反，变成了营造宽松货币环境和推动经济景气的催化剂。香港证券市场总市值已激增至12.1万亿港币，达GDP总值的8倍以上。换言之，股市值变化1%，相当于香港广义货币（M3）总量变化4%，或GDP变化8%。
过去几年中，我们看到在资产升值和低利率的驱动下，香港的消费和投资出现了强劲复苏。财富效应一直在促进消费增长，而就业、工资、家庭收入只是在过去两个季度才迎头赶上。消费能力的转强也促使零售业纷纷实施积极的扩张计划。不过，令人担忧的是，作为一个实行固定汇率机制的小型开放经济体，香港经济对流动性和资产市场表现的严重依赖将导致商业周期在外部因素影响下变得动荡不安。
随着人民币的持续走强，人民币兑美元的汇率已逼近港元兑美元的水平，港币升值预期也会上升。我们理解人民币兑美元汇率赶上港币兑美元汇率将对人们造成的心理影响，但我们认为这种情况将被证明是暂时性的。我们认为港币资产总值的增加是导致目前利率处于低水平的主导因素，这意味着即使在对港币升值的预期减弱后，利率依然将继续维持在低位。尽管我们不愿做出港元利率将进一步偏离美元利率（因而导致资产价格持续走强）这样的纯投机性预测，但异常宽松的货币环境完全有可能持续更长时间。
台湾经济的增长仰仗国外流动性
台湾经济的增长则是仰仗外资的流入。在内需低迷以及本地企业和私人资本持续外流的形势下，长期保持经常帐盈余及外资源源涌入资产市场使台湾资产市场一直享受宽松的货币环境，台湾央行能够实行温和的货币政策。国际收支状况的走势清晰地表明台湾经济的增长日趋依赖外部需求及流入证券市场的外资。台湾地区经常项目盈余一直呈持续增长态势，2006年有望达到GDP的6%，反映了产出与内需和内部投资结构性疲软的差额。
从资本帐户来看，台湾一直是直接投资资本的净输出国，2004年以来的净输出资本总额为107亿美元，2001年以来的输出资本总计为207亿美元。另一方面，尽管证券市场的资金流向呈现出本地资金不断外流的特点，但流入台湾证券市场的外资起到了一定的抵消作用。2005年4季度外资流入台湾证券市场的总额高达130亿美元，部分原因是受摩根斯坦利国际资本再加权指数（MSCI）上涨的推动，但这些流入资本被2004年以来台湾地区的大量外流资本抵消，使2004以来台湾的资本帐户勉强维持平衡状态。2001年以来国际收支持续处于盈余状况是导致台湾货币环境宽松和资产价格反弹的主要原因。而银行系统流动性的充裕则使利率一直处于较低水平，甚至长期利率也处于低位，如10年期政府债券的收益率保持在2%上下。由于利率处于低位，虽然台湾经济疲软，但金融资产价格却一路攀升。
但是，台湾的宽松货币环境和低利率的状况将难以维系。外资大量涌入是决定当前台湾货币环境微妙平衡的关键所在。因此，一旦出现外资骤然逃离，对货币环境和资产价格将产生严重冲击。在国际资本日趋一体化的趋势下，过去十年中台湾地区国际游资的涌入规模和增量出现了大幅增长 。国外游资的季度递增量可能将高达台湾GDP的20%，并可能导致金融市场出现剧烈波动。尽管政局不稳、以及由于海峡两岸通商具体方案尚未明确而存在一定商业风险，但采取调控措施减缓本地资本外流速度，甚至鼓励早期流出资本回流仍不失为一种明智之举。所幸的是，台湾央行将大量过剩资金以可转让定期存单形式储存（3.74万亿新台币，相对于1130亿美元），央行可以兑现这笔资金注入资金市场来随时填补外资流入萎缩的缺口，继续维持宽松货币环境和使利率维持在低水平。此外，2600亿美元的巨额外汇储备同样可以起到缓冲作用。
展望2007年，大中华圈三大经济体的经济表现很大程度上取决于全球流动资金的走势。大宗商品价格的回落和通胀预期的大幅下调使市场预期各大主要央行将采取更为温和的货币政策。具体而言，我们的美国经济学家目前认为美联储的加息周期已接近尾声，并可能在2007年下半年将采取降息行动。尽管如此，我们仍必须承认日趋加剧的全球流动性紧缩风险将对大中华区经济产生较以往更大的影响。由于通胀意外转向上升通道的风险仍在困扰工业化国家，进一步增加了收紧银根的风险。如果出现更可怕的全球经济滞胀局面，流向新兴市场的资本势必将大幅萎缩，导致大陆投资资金出现枯竭，迫使香港和台湾地区的资产价格回落。
英文原文：China: Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity
Liquidity trends appear to have dominated the discussion of macro outlook for the Greater China economies of late. The relationship between liquidity and each economy has rather different characteristics, and we offer a descriptive account of each of them in this note.
China－ managing excess liquidity. The Chinese government has been claiming success in macro tightening, reporting slower economic activity in response to administrative controls in the last few months. However, China has not yet resolved the fundamental problem of excess liquidity from the large trade surplus and capital inflows. The cost of capital remains too low, leaving the economy vulnerable to a revival in overheated and speculative investment. Recent PBoC rhetoric has shifted the policy focus to liquidity management, through lifting reserve requirements and/or issuing bonds. In 2006, the PBoC has hiked interest rates twice and raised reserve requirements on Renminbi deposits three times. Meanwhile, issues of central bank bonds have been kept up to absorb liquidity from the banking system. However, these measures have not been enough to offset the supply of liquidity from the balance of payments surplus.
Each percentage-point increase in the reserve requirement supposedly locks up Rmb320 billion of banking system liquidity. However, financial institutions' deposits with the PBoC totaled Rmb3.8 trillion at the end of September, already covering 11.6% of total deposits, exceeding the requirement. In other words, the \"required\" ratio of 9% has not been a binding constraint on liquidity. In fact, subsequent to the sharp increase in reserve deposits in 4Q03 following the first tightening move （August 2003）, which brought loan growth down effectively over 4Q03-2Q04, the actual reserve ratio has again drifted downwards since early 2005, allowing or possibly contributing to the reacceleration in loan growth.
Because the reserve requirement has not been a binding one, the total achieved sterilization （increase in actual reserve deposits and central bank bonds outstanding） has fallen short of the intended sterilization （increase in required reserves and bonds） as well as the BoP surplus. The BoP surplus of US$207 billion in 2005 met with only a US$146 billion （71% of the surplus） increase in reserve deposits and bonds. In 2006, sterilization remains incomplete, at 76% in 1H06 （US$122.1 billion BoP surplus vs. US$92 billion achieved sterilization） and worsened to 59% in 3Q06 （US$46.8 billion increase in FX reserves vs. US$27.4 billion sterilization）. The unsterilized surplus since 2005 therefore totaled US$110 billion.
Quantifying the impact of sterilization against the BoP surplus helps explain why the monetary tightening measures so far have not been sufficient to lift the cost of capital meaningfully, which we believe is vital in discouraging wasteful fixed investment. The bond issuance program has been far from aggressive in recent months, suggesting that the PBoC remains reluctant to lift interest rates significantly. We believe that this incomplete sterilization underpins the friendly liquidity environment in China, leaving lending, investment and overall economic activity vulnerable to a rebound. Although government policy continues to target slower growth, ample liquidity amid incomplete sterilization of the expanding BoP surplus should limit the harshness of the deceleration.
Hong Kong － enjoying liquidity inflows, but wary of volatility. Liquidity conditions and asset market performance have a strong influence on real economic activity in Hong Kong. The influence has further stepped up this year on the back of the increase in large-size listings of Chinese enterprises in the Hong Kong stock market. The HK$-denominated financial asset base has grown significantly, powering monetary expansion far ahead of economic growth. Capital inflows, absorbed by the banking system in the form of an expanding net foreign asset position （US$25 billion over the 12 months ending Oct-06）, have resulted in a downtrend in the HK$ loan-to-deposit ratio, and lower HK$ interest rates （against their US$ counterparts） in recent months, further supporting asset market valuations and gains.
The expansion of Hong Kong's financial asset base in the last few years has been driven by China's increasing appetite for international capital. The performance of the asset markets is not so directly representative of Hong Kong's domestic economic fundamentals, but ironically has become the driver of monetary conditions and economic sentiment. Stock market capitalization has surged to HK$12.1 trillion, more than 8 times GDP. In other words, each 1% rise or fall in the stock market represents an amount equivalent to 4% of broad money M3, or 8% of GDP.
We have seen robust pickup in consumption and investment on the back of asset appreciation and low interest rates in the last couple of years. Consumption has been lifted by the positive wealth effect, while employment, wages and household income have only been catching up in the last two quarters. Consumer businesses have also turned more positive on expansion plans amid stronger consumption. However, it worries us that, as a small, open economy with a fixed exchange rate, Hong Kong's strong leverage on liquidity conditions and asset market performance results in volatile business cycles driven by non-domestic factors.
The imminent crossing of the RMB/US$ and HK$/US$ exchange rates upon further RMB appreciation has lifted expectation that the HK$ will follow. We sympathize with the psychological impact of the RMB breakthrough on the HK$, but believe it will prove to be temporary. We believe that the expanding HK$ financial asset base is the dominant factor behind the current low interest rate environment, meaning that low interest rates could be sustained even beyond the speculation for HK$ appreciation subsides. While we are reluctant to make purely speculative forecasts on further deviation of HK$ interest rates from their US$ counterparts （hence sustained strength in asset prices）, it is quite possible that anomalous monetary conditions sustain for even longer.
Taiwan－ reliant on foreign liquidity. Amid sluggish domestic demand and continuous outward investments by local enterprises and individuals, asset markets in Taiwan have been supported by loose monetary conditions, made possible by the accommodative stance of the central bank, the current account surplus, and sustained foreign interest in Taiwan's financial assets. Balance of payments trends clearly demonstrate Taiwan's increasing dependence on external demand and foreign portfolio investment. The persistently large current account surplus, likely to reach 6% of GDP in 2006, reflects the output gap amid structural weakness in domestic consumption and investment. In the financial account, Taiwan has been a net exporter of direct investment capital, totaling US$10.7 billion since 2004 and US$20.7 billion since 2001. Portfolio flows, on the other hand, are characterized by local investors investing increasingly abroad but partially cushioned by foreign investments in Taiwan equities. Foreign portfolio inflows totaled as much as US$13 billion in 4Q05, buoyed partly by the MSCI re-weighting, but these have been offset by accelerated outbound investments by locals since 2004, leaving the overall financial account barely in balance since 2004. The overall balance of payments surplus since 2001 has contributed a great deal to the easy monetary conditions in Taiwan and the recovery in asset prices. Ample liquidity in the banking system has kept interest rates low. Rates are low even at the long end, with the 10-year government bond yield hovering around 2% at present, keeping financial assets afloat even amid a weak domestic economy.
Nevertheless, easy monetary conditions and low rates should not be assumed indefinitely. Foreign capital inflow is a crucial factor in the current delicate monetary balance. Monetary conditions, and, hence, asset prices, are extremely vulnerable to an abrupt turnaround in foreign portfolio flows. The size of and swings in short-term capital flows have increased significantly in the past decade amid increasing global financial integration. Quarter-on-quarter swings in short-term capital flows could be as great as 20% of GDP and could be extremely destabilizing for financial markets. Needless to say, measures to slow the pace of capital exporting by local investors or even encourage repatriation of earlier outflows would be ideal, although the unfavorable political climate and business uncertainty prior to the drawing up of a concrete roadmap governing cross-strait exchanges are to be blamed for the persistence of the outflows at present. Fortunately, in Taiwan's favor is the buffer of excess liquidity stored in NCDs （outstanding NT$3.74 trillion, or US$113 billion）, which the central bank can release to the money market to maintain accommodative conditions and low interest rates in the face of unfavorable capital flows. Moreover, the US$260 billion-strong foreign exchange reserves provide an additional shock absorber.
The 2007 outlook for all the three Greater China economies is very much dependent on global liquidity trends. The correction in commodity prices and apparent taming in inflation expectations have caused markets to expect a more dovish monetary policy stance from the major central banks. Specifically, our US economists now believe that the Fed is done with tightening, and easing could kick in as soon as 2H07. Nevertheless, it would still be irresponsible to deny the growing risk of a contraction in global liquidity that could have a greater impact than in the past. Upside surprises to inflation continue to haunt the industrialized world, heightening risks of further tightening. In the much-feared scenario of global stagflation, investment fund flows to emerging markets will unlikely avoid an adverse turnaround, drying up funds for China's investment, and forcing asset prices to correct in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
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来源：摩根斯坦利，作者：Denise Yam
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